The Green Bay Packers sprung a surprise when they signed guard Aaron Banks with their first move in free agency in March, and to a four-year, $77 million deal at that.
It has been dubbed an overpay by many, and whether that is true will only be known in time, but what does it look like Green Bay is getting in Banks? Here is what the advanced statistics say about the guard as he gets ready for his first year with the Packers:
Strengths
Banks excels at the most fundamental part of being an offensive lineman: preventing the quarterback from being sacked. He has allowed just three sacks in his NFL career on 1,683 pass block snaps and was responsible for just one in 2024, which came in Week 2.
Among qualified NFL guards, Banks ranks in the 83rd percentile in sacks allowed per opportunity (SK/OPP) since becoming a starter in 2022, which removes pass blocking snaps where a spike or penalty occurred.
He also ranks in the 81st percentile for SK/OPP in true pass sets, which are pass plays not including play action, screens or quick throws, generally making life more difficult for the offensive line.
It does not quite fall into the category of a true strength, but Banks has been consistently above average as a run blocker on zone runs specifically, ranking in the 63rd percentile in PFF’s zone run block grade.
Weaknesses
Although Banks has done a great job of stopping sacks, he has allowed pressure on the quarterback too regularly, ranking in the 22nd percentile in hurries per opportunity (HUR/OPP), and the 25th percentile in true pass sets.
In terms of quarterback hits, he ranks in the 32nd percentile per opportunity (HIT/OPP), and the 31st in true pass sets. Banks has allowed at least four QB hits in each of the last three years, including eight in 2023.
Due to particularly poor grades in 2022 and 2023, Banks’ ability to execute gap scheme run blocks profiles as a weakness overall. He ranks in the 28th percentile in PFF’s gap run block grade since his first year as a starter.
He has also been guilty of committing penalties too often, ranking in the 33rd percentile among guards in penalties per snap.
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Banks made some significant improvements to his game over his time in San Francisco, which will surely have given Green Bay confidence in making the move to sign him.
On the whole, he was a stronger and more effective pass protector with each year of experience under his belt.
In PFF’s pass block efficiency metric, Banks improved from the 25th percentile in 2022 to the 43rd in 2023, and finally to an above average ranking in 2024, in the 53rd percentile.
He similarly improved his efficiency in true pass sets from the 27th percentile in 2022, to the 42nd in 2023 and then the 52nd last year.
While the number of hurries Banks has allowed in his career are concerning, he has improved in that regard year over year, going from the 10th percentile in HUR/OPP in 2022 to the 26th in 2023 and the 31st in 2024.
In true pass sets, he ranked in the 12th percentile in HUR/OPP his first year as a starter, improving to the 20th and 42nd percentile in consecutive years thereafter. His total hurries allowed have gone down each year from 29, to 28, to 20 in 2024.
It is still a weakness of Banks’ game,, but it is encouraging to see him trending in the right direction.
2024 was also his best overall season as a run blocker, mainly due to him making a massive improvement in gap scheme runs, at least according to PFF’s grades.
After ranking in the 13th percentile in PFF’s gap run block grade in 2022, and the 7th percentile in 2023, he soared to the 63rd percentile last year.
With how the Packers have shifted their ground attack to emphasizing more gap concepts, his improvement in that aspect was likely a big green flag for Green Bay.
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The only area Banks has seemingly declined over time is the rate at which he gets his quarterback hit, specifically in true pass sets. He ranked in the 40th percentile in HIT/OPP in true pass sets in 2022, dropping to the 30th percentile in 2023 and the 22nd in 2024.
Of note, Banks was much better in the first half of 2024 than the second according to PFF, with an average grade of 69.4 in the first seven games he played compared to 54.9 in the final six. There are factors at play which could have prevented him from even more of a breakout year.
He missed a few games in the back half of the season, leaving the game against the Packers with a concussion. According to the injury reports, Banks did not play through anything else, but injuries to his teammates may have impacted the play of the offense, including Banks.
Brock Purdy missed the Packers game with a shoulder issue and was questionable the following week. He may have been playing through the injury, compromising the offense.
Banks’ dip in performance coincided with Brandon Aiyuk suffering an ACL injury which sidelined him for the rest of the year, while Banks’ neighbor at left tackle, Trent Williams, was often listed as questionable on the injury report down the stretch.
Overall, Banks essentially profiles as a league average pass protector and an above average run blocker, but has not been spectacular in either facet.
He enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024, performing like a slightly above average starting guard, and the Packers will hope his ascent can continue. The 49ers offense was falling apart by the end of the year, and with less turbulence, Banks may have performed even better.
Paying Banks at the sixth-highest rate annually among guards still looks like an overpay, although when looking at percentage of the salary cap when contracts were signed, his deal actually only ranks tenth in the league.
Regardless, the Packers will not see it as a mistake if Banks provides even slightly above average guard play, as he did in 2024. They may feel they can unlock him further in their scheme, or that he will play better with a quarterback in the style of a Jordan Love, rather than a Purdy.
The flipside of that optimistic argument is that he has already played for one of the brightest offensive minds in Kyle Shanahan, who comes from the same coaching tree as Matt LaFleur. Banks turns 28 in September, so there may not be much runway for further development.
Green Bay has had some success in projecting and then realizing improvement with free agent signings entering their second contract, will Banks be the latest?
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: What are Packers getting in Aaron Banks? What the stats say about Green Bay’s $77m guard
Reporting by Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
