MADISON – A few things have changed since the last time Wisconsin Democrats had an open race for governor, but these three are the same: there are more than half-a-dozen candidates in the primary, Kelda Roys is one of them, and she placed in the top three in a straw poll of activists at the state party’s convention.
Roys didn’t win in 2018, and she has struggled to break through the crowded 2026 field. But with a new $500,000 ad buy, she argues there are more factors in her favor this year. More time, more money, better targeting data and a message aimed at winning over the primary voters who are most likely to break her way.
“It is a much more open and even playing field,” Roys told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “And in a race like this, like in any primary, where it’s scarce resources and complicated, uncertain math, having a really smart, money-efficient strategy is the thing that can make the difference.”
Roys’ new 30-second spot is on the higher end of spending for Democrats thus far with the Aug. 11 primary less than two months away. Roys’ spend puts her in the ballpark but still behind a group backing Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, which, according to a WisPolitics review of the tracker AdImpact, has spent more than $750,000. Roys’ initial buy will air on OTT (over-the-top) services and CTV (connected TV) devices rather than cable.
Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan was the first candidate in the field to go on air, but with a smaller footprint, having spent more than $260,000 thus far. A group backing Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has spent $117,000 so far, according to WisPolitics.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Tom Tiffany has been on the air throughout the state since April, running unopposed in the GOP primary with more than $3 million in reserved spots positioning himself for the general election.
Roys’ ad opens with her family standing in the driveway as she takes off on a tandem bike with two of her children in tow. As they ride through Madison, she touts 25 years of work “to make Wisconsin better for my kids and yours” and pledges to “protect our democracy from Donald Trump’s regime, lower costs and open the state health care plan so anyone can buy in, and fully fund our schools.”
The spot ends with a tag promoting her endorsement by the Wisconsin Education Association Council, the state’s largest teachers union. A WEAC spokesperson did not respond to a message seeking information about the group’s plans to spend on Roys’ behalf, but Roys said “we expect and believe that our allies will also be informing voters about my record and plans.”
In her 2018 campaign, Roys won the endorsement of the national fundraising powerhouse EMILY’s List, but the group did not spend on her behalf the way her supporters had hoped.
This ad buy will keep Roys on the air into the primary for twice as many weeks as she advertised in her 2018 bid, when she finished in third place with about 14% of votes cast. Her timing is intentional, she said, to follow the end of the school year and the state party convention and precede the mailing of absentee ballots.
“This is strategic analysis of our polling data, and unlike other campaigns, we did a poll to ascertain the best way to spend our money – not not a push poll to try to fake people out, but actual research to say, how do we win this race, and who are the voters that are most likely to break our way if they’re undecided, or to come to us from softly supporting other candidates?” Roys told the Journal Sentinel.
Roys said she’s already seen that happening, and said she thinks her campaign has peeled away the most support from Rodriguez.
In response to Roys’ comments, a Rodriguez campaign spokesperson pointed to an internal poll the campaign commissioned that showed the lieutenant governor coming in third behind the race’s frontrunners – state Rep. Francesca Hong and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
The Rodriguez-commissioned poll showed Hong and Rodriguez improving their standing more than any other Democratic candidates from March to May. The results were first reported by the liberal Recombobulation Area.
“Democrats are fired up to beat Congressman Tom Tiffany in November, and Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez is the proven winner to get it done,” the spokesperson said. “She beat a Republican incumbent in Waukesha County, won statewide with Governor Evers, and has traveled to all 72 counties building the coalition Democrats need to win majorities in the Senate and Assembly.”
Rodriguez, who recently announced an endorsement from former Gov. Martin Schreiber, received the most votes in the WisPolitics straw poll of nearly 600 Wisconsin Democrats at the party’s state convention last weekend. Hong captured second and Roys won third place. Barnes placed sixth out of seven candidates.
Though Barnes has consistently placed near the top in statewide polling of the primary field, he received just 41 votes in the straw poll.
“If straw polls were an accurate representation of where the people of the state were, Jim Doyle nor Tony Evers would be governor of Wisconsin,” Barnes said at a campaign stop in Milwaukee this week.
Evers placed third in the 2018 convention’s straw poll and Doyle came in second to former Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in 2002, the year Doyle was first elected.
Roys – who won the 2018 straw poll – believes she can cut into Barnes’ support, too.
She’s targeting Evers’ current and former lieutenant governors with the backing of former Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, whose endorsement Roys announced during the state convention.
“Barbara was certainly the most active and dynamic and effective lieutenant governor of my lifetime, and she knows what the job is and what it takes to be governor,” Roys said. “And the fact that she believes that it’s me and not two other LGs that are in the race. I think is consequential.”
Lawton, the first woman elected lieutenant governor in Wisconsin, served two terms and ended her own brief campaign for governor in 2009 as then-Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett prepared to enter the race. She was quoted in a New York Times article last fall discouraging Barnes from entering the race.
The seven Democrats running for governor will compete in an Aug.11 primary. The winner will move on to face Tiffany in the Nov. 3 general election.
Jessie Opoien can be reached at jessie.opoien@jrn.com.
This story has been updated to note that Roys’ ad will air on OTT and CTV devices.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Kelda Roys hopes to shake up Dem governor field with new ad campaign
Reporting by Jessie Opoien, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Jessie Opoien, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel | USA TODAY Network
