NFL Combine week isn’t even over and many Dallas Cowboys fans already have their favorite prospects identified. From Caleb Downs at safety to Sonny Styles at linebacker, playmakers are aplenty in this year’s annual draft. But which prospects are going to be there at No. 12 and which ones will be long gone? It’s an age-old question that has no definitive answer. Sure, CeeDee Lamb falling to 17 taught Cowboys fans anything is possible, but what is actually likely?
Twitter personality Eagles Eric ran a Monte Carlo simulation of mock drafts in an attempt to gauge the probability how far each prospect falls and which ones are most likely to be there when their respective team goes on the clock. The good news for Cowboys fans is the top three individual likely outcomes for Dallas are Ohio State linebackers Sonny Styles (13.0%) and Arvell Reese (10.6%) and Tennessee cornerback Jermond McCoy (7.1%). The bad news is, at a probability of 69.3%, the most likely outcome will be someone else.
It’s safe to say most Cowboys fans would be elated with either Styles or Reese at Pick 12. Feelings towards McCoy are more complicated given his questionable medicals. McCoy has yet to play, or even publicly work out, since tearing his knee in January of 2025. With more than a year of recovery time the hope is he’s fully cleared by now, but until he proves it, his value is in jeopardy.
Since the “other” category is winning the probability battle right now, it’s worth looking into which one of those “others” might be on the board at 12.
Safety Caleb Downs, the dream scenario for most Cowboys fans, has a 44% chance based on these simulations. The value of the safety position combined with team needs makes him a possibility if he can escape the evil clutches of the New York Giants.
Rueben Bain and his shorter-than-ideal-arm-length has a 22% chance of making it to Dallas. It’s unlikely, but perfectly possible. Mansoor Delane, regarded by most as the top CB in the class, has a 49% chance of making it to the Cowboys. He’s essentially a flip of the coin. While offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa has a 37% chance of getting to 12.
For many of these prospects, the odds look better than many people probably imagined. Yet it’s important to keep in mind the probabilities still say none of them are going to make it and Dallas will have to pick outside that pool of players.
Not until Spencer Fano, standout OT from Utah, do the odds start to fall into Dallas’ favor (51%). McCoy with a 58% chance of being available is the best blend of need and availability, but he has all of those aforementioned issues to consider.
Once the NFL Combine concludes, the big boards get updated and new simulations can run, will we know what the effects of this week have had on the probabilities. But for now, it’s worth knowing most of everyone’s top targets are technically possible even if they’re all unlikely.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: New: Probability top draft targets can make way to Cowboys at No. 12
Reporting by Reid D Hanson, Cowboys Wire / Cowboys Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
