Spoiler alert: Mike Clay has gazed into his crystal ball and laid out how the entire 2026 NFL season is going to go.
The ESPN writer, analyst, and fantasy football prognosticator has released his annual projection guide, devoting an understandably big chunk of the 82 pages to player ratings, probable starting lineups, and stat estimates for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and individual defensive players.
But there’s a lot of non-fantasy data to crunch as well, including a calculated look at how each team is likely to do throughout the upcoming season. Clay has revealed his win probability projections for each team on a week-by-week basis, and they hold significant promise for the Cowboys faithful.
Clay’s modeling shows the Cowboys with a favorable win probability in 11 of their 17 games. His projected 10 total wins for the club rank eighth in his final league standings, a good placement considering Dallas is going in with the 11th-hardest schedule of opponents.
If the projections hold true, the Cowboys would finish second in the NFC East and make the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the conference.
A closer look at the win probabilities shows the Cowboys to be most heavily-favored in their games against the Cardinals and Titans, while Week 15’s visit to the Rams’ house looks to be their toughest contest by far. Interestingly, while the Cowboys are underdogs to beat the Eagles in Week 7’s Monday night tilt in Philadelphia, the Thanksgiving Day rematch does have the Cowboys tabbed as slight favorites at home.
The tightest games to call? The trips to Houston and Green Bay are both 51-49% propositions, both in favor of the other guys. (And that Rio meeting with the Ravens is just a 54-46% affair, within a Brandon Aubrey field goal of going the other way.)
Here’s Clay’s game-by-game win probabilities for every game on the Cowboys’ 2026 schedule.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys’ win probability for every game on 2026 schedule
Reporting by Todd Brock, Cowboys Wire / Cowboys Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
