While hope does spring eternal, that’s not always the case when it comes to springtime rainfall.
Still, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting the persistence of drought for most of Texas until June 30, a swath of the Big Country, Central Texas and North Texas appear to be absent from that forecast.
Large portions of southeast Texas, all of the Panhandle and much of the mountain west will likely remain dry during that time.
“Factors influencing NOAA’s Spring Outlook include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, low snowpack in the West and soil moisture content throughout the lower 48 states,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This spring will also feature a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña.”
El Niño is a condition of warming in the southern Pacific Ocean which can affect Big Country weather patterns with wetter-than-average conditions. La Niña, its opposite, is marked by a cooling of the same Pacific region, resulting in lesser rain than average.
Guessing game
Neutral or in-between conditions in theory could mark this as an average year for rainfall. In Abilene, that’s a little over 25 inches. Abilene finished 2025 with 21.51 inches of rain for the year.
But as the atmosphere is always in motion, it could mean by the fall, El Niño will dominate the region with a wetter and cooler winter.
Matt Groh, a meteorologist with the NWS in San Angelo, advises caution when looking at these predictive maps.
“It’s difficult to predict the outlook for this year because of drought. We don’t have a governing factor that’s going to say it’s going to be drier than normal over the next couple of months,” he said. “Right now, we’re just at equal chances.”
Temperatures are expected to be higher than average for the spring. Typical highs range from the 60s into the near summer range of upper 80s or 90s by May. But those rising temperatures last month were apparent when Abilene officially recorded 98 degrees at the Abilene Regional Airport March 22. It tied the record for March 21 in 1916.
“We’ve had high pressure aloft that’s been persistent over the southwest that’s been responsible for our warmer and drier conditions” Groh said. “It’s brought record heat to Texas and up into Oklahoma.”
In fact, Groh stated this will go down in history as the warmest on-average March ever recorded for Abilene. And even though the Drought Monitor has Taylor County in a moderate drought, March was on course to finish the month wetter than usual.
“The rainfall for the month occurred all in the first 10 days,” Groh said. “Enough for it to be above-average for the month even though the last few weeks have been dry.”
Whether those conditions persist for the Big Country is a question to be answered later in the week and through the remainder of spring. Possibly severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is predicted for Wednesday and then perhaps again around Friday.
“You can’t put too much hope, or even any lack of hope, into that spring outlook,” Groh said. “We’re just going to have to see what kind of thunderstorms we have coming.”
This article originally appeared on Abilene Reporter-News: Abilene springtime rainfall outlook for 2026 still up in the air
Reporting by Ronald W. Erdrich, Abilene Reporter-News / Abilene Reporter-News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
