Ohio State men’s basketball’s latest chance for a resume-solidifying win will arrive Jan. 23 against its biggest rival.
Riding a two-game winning streak, the Buckeyes will continue Big Ten play with a road date against No. 2 Michigan, a team with just one loss this season. The Wolverines sit atop the NCAA’s NET rankings, positioned for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and enjoying one of the most statistically dominating starts to a season in recent memory.
The Buckeyes have climbed to No. 35 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, but are only 1-4 in Quadrant 1 games. A win at Michigan would provide a significant boost to Ohio State’s bid to return to March Madness for the first time in four years, but it will be a tall task.
Ohio State is 3-16 all-time when playing as an unranked team at ranked Michigan and just one of those wins is against a top-10 Wolverines team. On Jan. 2, 1997, the Buckeyes upset No. 8 Michigan 73-71.
Here are three stats worth keeping an eye on as the game approaches.
Since early January, Ohio State and Michigan have similar statistical profiles
It’s been two decidedly different journeys for the Buckeyes and Wolverines to this point. In starting 14-0 with three Big Ten wins, Michigan set a conference record with six wins by at least 40 points and barged its way to the top of the standings, rankings and analytics. Ohio State, meanwhile, has dealt with injuries and had not won consecutive games against high-major competition before finally winning Jan. 17 against UCLA and following it up with a Jan. 20 victory over Minnesota.
In the time period since Michigan’s two-point win at Penn State, however, the Buckeyes and Wolverines have not been separated by much from an analytics standpoint. According to BartTorvik.com, Michigan has played as the No. 17 team in the nation from Jan. 6 through the 20th, the night the Wolverines beat Indiana and Ohio State defeated Minnesota.
During that same stretch, Ohio State has rated as the No. 24 team while going 3-1. The Buckeyes have had the better-performing offense at 128.8 points per 100 possessions compared to 123.9 for the Wolverines.
For the balance of the season, Michigan is No. 1 and Ohio State is No. 39 at BartTorvik.com.
Ohio State’s John Mobley Jr. is on a hot streak
After a slow start to his sophomore season, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound guard is now tied with Bruce Thornton for the team lead in 3-point shooting percentage at 41.4%. Mobley enters the game 53 for 128 from deep and coming off the most prolific two-game stretch of his career.
After scoring a career-high 28 points in the win against UCLA, Mobley added 26 against the Gophers while shooting a combined 11 for 23 (47.8%) from 3-point range. He also has five assists and just two turnovers during that stretch.
Mobley has scored in double figures in nine of Ohio State’s last 10 games, with the lone outlier a three-point game at Washington, where he was just 1 for 5 from the floor. Otherwise, he’s up to second on the team in scoring at 15.3 points per game and offensive rating at 123.9, according to KenPom. He trails only Thornton in those categories.
In its lone loss this season, Michigan allowed Wisconsin to shoot 45.5% (15 for 33) from deep, its second-worst 3-point defensive effort of the season. To spring the upset, the Buckeyes likely will need Mobley to shoot like he has for the majority of the season but particularly as of late.
Michigan is elite from two-point range
Ohio State has been one of the nation’s best at two-point shooting. The Buckeyes are 10th nationally at 60.3%, per KenPom, and have finished below 50% only three times – losses to North Carolina and Washington and a win against Notre Dame.
Michigan has allowed only two teams to make more than half of their two-point shots. Indiana went 52.2% and Wisconsin shot 56.0% from inside the arc. The Wolverines lead the nation in two-point defense, holding teams to 40.7% shooting. Ohio State’s worst two-point game of the season was its win against the Fighting Irish, when it went 12 for 27 (44.4%).
It’s not just Michigan’s two-point defense that excels. The Wolverines also lead the nation in two-point field goal percentage, connecting at a 63.8% rate from inside the arc. Four Michigan players are among the top 100 nationally: No. 32 Trey McKenney (26 for 37, 70.3%), No. 42 Aday Mara (81 for 116, 69.8%), No. 47 Morez Johnson (91 for 131, 69.5%) and No. 83 Yaxel Lendeborg (59 for 88, 67.0%).
Among active Ohio State players, Bruce Thornton leads the team at 65.5% (94 for 145) from two.
Ohio State men’s basketball beat writer Adam Jardy can be reached at ajardy@dispatch.com, on Bluesky at @cdadamjardy.bsky.social or on Twitter at @AdamJardy.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Three key stats as upset-minded Ohio State men’s hoops goes to Michigan
Reporting by Adam Jardy, Columbus Dispatch / The Columbus Dispatch
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
