The Portman Center for Policy Solutions at the University of Cincinnati promotes finding common ground to solve tough policy problems. Among the many topics that have been addressed since its founding over the past few years are affordable housing, cybersecurity, AI regulation, infrastructure, and the electoral system. All of these issues are important and challenging, but none is more significant to our future or more politically charged than the topic of this year’s Portman Center Symposium − the debt and deficit.
The Symposium was able to attract some of the nation’s top subject matter experts, and both of us served as moderators on panels that focused not just on the obvious problem we face, but also on the perennial and thorny question of how to mobilize the public to secure our fiscal future. America’s growing annual deficits and unprecedented national debt present a monumental challenge that requires civic engagement and public discourse to get it under control before it is too late.
We should start by agreeing on some simple truths, all of which were agreed to at the symposium by experts from across the political spectrum.
The scale of the fiscal problem
The federal budget is deeply out of balance, with budget deficits totaling nearly $2 trillion annually, now more than 6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a level only reached once in our history. As a result of this borrowing, which, by the way, was due to action and inaction from both sides of the political aisle, our accumulated debt as a share of GDP is higher than at any time except one year during World War II and is projected to exceed the record by 2030 and skyrocket towards 120% of GDP by the end of the next decade.
Part of that debt growth will come from Social Security, which will be insolvent in less than seven years, at which point the law calls for benefits to be cut by 24% across the board automatically. Given the program’s popularity and that it acts as a vital resource for more than 70 million Americans, insolvency should never be an option.
The national debt may seem like an abstract concept, but its massive size and ramifications for current and future Americans are as tangible as they are concerning. As economic experts at the symposium explained, debt creates economic consequences, like reduced investment in our economy, which slows down economic growth and leaves us with less income per person than we would otherwise have.
More federal borrowing also comes with higher interest rates and inflationary pressure throughout the economy. It also creates budgetary consequences; for one, we’re now paying more for interest on the debt − more than $1 trillion annually − than we do for national defense or spending on children.
Why the debt matters now
The debt is squeezing out other priorities, and it’s making us vulnerable to our adversaries − some of whom we have to borrow from to meet our debt obligations. And at its worst, experts at the symposium agreed that running such high and rising debt risks sparking a sudden fiscal crisis that would upend our economy.
All in all, our burgeoning debt poses a real threat to our national well-being.
It took 25 years of fiscal negligence to get to where we are today, and experts at the symposium agreed it will take time to get out of this mess. The key to getting started is to get the public more engaged on the issue so we can converge around practical solutions. At the symposium, we discussed opinion survey data that shows most people know these unprecedented annual deficits and accumulating debt are a problem that must be addressed. They know Washington math wouldn’t work in their family or business.
There is evidence that some elected officials are listening and taking steps in the right direction. While we are in an extremely polarized political environment, there is a glimmer of hope emerging in Washington, including bipartisan momentum towards adopting a technical but important goal we discussed at the symposium: bringing the annual deficit as a share of GDP down to 3%.
That’s about half of what we’re borrowing now, and it means identifying sufficient spending cuts and revenue increases, including through economic growth, that would total $10 trillion over the next decade. Setting such a commonsense goal in the midst of the growing fiscal crisis may seem like a small step, but it has eluded Washington for decades now and could be a critical first step.
A path toward bipartisan solutions
Helpfully, the 3% goal has a history of bipartisan support, with former President Barack Obama’s budgets aiming to meet it, President Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent endorsing it, and business and thought leaders spanning the ideological spectrum praising it.
Adopting a 3% of GDP deficit goal should be a top priority. From there come the tough choices of how to achieve it. Given the scale and breadth of the changes that would be needed and the partisan divisions that lie between us, the most realistic path to achieving this goal may well be a bipartisan fiscal commission.
At the symposium, experts debated the commission idea, but seemed to converge on a commission consisting of policymakers and experts from both sides of the aisle. The idea is to force policymakers and experts to get in the same room and identify a way out of the fiscal quagmire, somewhat insulated from the pressures of partisan politics. It was agreed at the symposium that any policy recommendations supported by the commission should be voted on by Congress, perhaps with a required up or down vote.
It was agreed that a good place for a commission to start would be to address Social Security insolvency. The last time we faced insolvency was during the Reagan administration, and it was a commission that helped set the stage for bipartisan legislation to shore up this critical program. Fixing Social Security resolves a significant portion of our long-term challenge, and you secure the largest and most popular federal program for both current retirees and their children and grandchildren.
At the symposium, it was agreed that with every year that passes, the adjustments that have to be made to get our fiscal house in order become more difficult to achieve. By not acting, the risk is that our fiscal turnaround will be forced by a crisis, rather than on our terms, which could cause real harm and dislocation.
The ideas discussed at the symposium were a roadmap to finding common ground to address this seemingly intractable fiscal problem that is already a drag on America’s prosperity and threatens to destroy the American dream. The consensus from the symposium: engage the American people more on the topic, set an ambitious but realistic goal of getting annual deficits down to 3% of GDP, assign the task to achieve that goal to a bipartisan commission with real expertise, consider starting with Social Security, and require Congress to vote on the commission’s recommendations.
At a time when we seem paralyzed to address the big policy issues in front of us, the symposium and this practical way forward give us hope.
Rob Portman is a former U.S. Senator from Ohio. Maya MacGuineas is president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: It’s time for urgency and hard choices as US debt soars | Opinion
Reporting by Rob Portman and Maya MacGuineas, Opinion contributors / Cincinnati Enquirer
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