If you live in Greater Cincinnati, you’ve heard this story before: forecasts calling for epic amounts of snow only to see a light dusting in your own neighborhood.
In the past week, predictions for this weekend’s winter storm has been anywhere from four inches to as much as 25 inches of snow – and that number keeps changing.
Is it fake news? Meteorologists who are awful at their jobs? And should we really expect almost a foot of snow in Greater Cincinnati this weekend?
Two local meteorologists addressed why people keep seeing changes in local forecasts over the next few days and what exactly could affect how much snow you get this weekend.
Small storm shifts mean big changes when it comes to snowfall
When it comes to winter storms, even a small shift in wind or atmospheric pressure can have a massive effect on snowfall.
The storm Greater Cincinnati can expect this weekend, which The Weather Channel named Winter Storm Fern, is no exception.
“Snow is a very delicate forecast,” said Erin Ashley, a meteorologist with FOX19.
For instance, Winter Storm Fern has shifted further north in the past few days so the amount of forecasted snow has increased.
“All it takes is a 50-mile difference to make or break how much snow you see,” she said.
So it seems likely, as of Thursday afternoon, that the Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati area will get at least 8 inches of snow.
A few blocks can even make a difference
That forecast may be correct a mile away. It’s not unusual for people who live just a few blocks away from each other to see a difference in snowfall.
Steve Horstmeyer, who spent 48 years as a forecaster in Greater Cincinnati before retiring last summer, said that’s due to natural variations.
“Snowfall amounts just vary across a region and it might be even within a mile – some spots may get a lot of snow and some spots may get half that,” he said.
If that’s normal, why does it sometimes feel like forecasts are less reliable?
‘Curse of the internet’
Weather models have become so accurate and widely available that people are living in the best era of weather awareness ever, Horstmeyer said.
The problem is what he calls the “curse of the internet.”
Earlier this week, for instance, a weather model indicated Cincinnati could get 25 inches of snow from Winter Storm Fern. Local meteorologists, though, know that particular model tends to initially overpredict snowfall.
“My rule of thumb for that, was a week out, cut the snow amounts of this forecast in half,” Horstmeyer said.
But not everyone is a meteorologist and rumors of two feet of snow in Cincinnati started circulating on social media.
Ashley said that can overshadow the work meteorologists do, which involves looking at patterns, weather prediction models, and trends to put everything into context for a forecast.
“That’s our whole job … to try to predict the future,” she said.
Heavy or wet snow makes a difference
The kind of snow each storm brings in makes a difference in both how much sticks to the ground and how people experience the snowfall.
For instance, low temperatures Saturday will likely cause fluffy snow that accumulates quickly. But, Horstmeyer said, it’s so light it can blow out of people’s yards and is easier for people to shovel.
Heavier, wet snow expected Sunday will accumulate less. But it will be more dense, likely ice over, and be harder for people to shovel – even if there’s less of it.
Living in a city versus the countryside matters (most of the time)
Living in a city rather than in a rural area can sometimes mean less snowfall in the winter.
Cities just produce more heat. So, snow that forms thousands of feet above ground level can melt before it sticks to roadways and buildings. But that’s not the case for winter storms with extremely low temperatures, like the one expected this weekend.
“Overall, the effect is minimal on a big, sizable storm like the one coming our way,” Horstmeyer said.
City residents should also be aware of the effects of urban canyons in the winter, Horstmeyer added. Tall buildings essentially create artificial canyons that can cause extreme wind gusts and possibly kick up additional snow flurries.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Is Greater Cincinnati really getting almost a foot of snow? It depends
Reporting by Jolene Almendarez, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
