As Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona manipulates a patchwork bullpen and Plan B lineup to find elusive wins, his bosses face hard facts about a roster they might soon be compelled to break up.
Barring a sudden turnaround in the next few weeks, a two-month nosedive in playoff expectations is likely to result in turning last year’s playoff team into this year’s trade-deadline sellers.
And make no mistake: A roster that was supplemented over the winter with short-term free agent deals and one-year obligations via trades is built as much for a selloff as it was for a playoff run.
What it never had was nearly the competitive depth that it once appeared to have, especially in a stronger National League. A flurry of May injuries proved that much.
Blame it on ownership, blame it on injuries or blame it on Rio, but this team has a losing record through 70 games, resides in last place in the NL Central, and is no better in mid-June than it was at this time any of the previous three seasons.
And for those who believe in the predictive value of such things, their run differential suggests they’re 10-12 games worse than their record.
When it comes to the business end of those numbers, that makes the trade season a time for nickel-conscious ownership to try to recoup some prorated salaries and for a playoff-minded front office to try to acquire some young talent and reset for next year.
Another part of the business calculation: None of the pending free agents on the roster looks like a candidate for a $23 million qualifying offer, which means selling them now or losing them for no return after the season.
So buckle up if the Reds don’t finish the month hot. Here’s a lineup of trade chips that could be involved in serious rumors, if not on the move (contract terms in parentheses):
RHP Brady Singer (1 year/$12.75 million)
The veteran innings-eater has had one of his roughest seasons so far, but he’s coming off one of his top starts of the year as he heads into his 14th start this week against the Mets. And starting pitching is always in high demand at the deadline — maybe even more this year than most with so many contenders trying to backfill for injuries and double down on depth.
Singer is a free agent after this season and not a strong candidate for a qualifying offer or extension offer because of the Reds’ depth of young, controllable starting pitching options heading into next year.
3B/DH Eugenio Suárez (1 year/$15 million)
The reunion with the popular slugger was a win-now move. But instead he would now become a way to recoup about $5 million in prorated salary after ownership stretched the budget for the the veteran free agent.
That’s assuming he starts producing like his salary and his 49-homer season last year suggest, which is to say assuming a contender believes he’ll produce enough down the stretch to justify giving up some talent and taking the rest of the salary. (His contract also includes a $16 million mutual option for 2027)
LHP Caleb Ferguson (1 year/$4.5 million)
The veteran reliever has been traded at the deadline each of the past two years, including landing alongside Suárez in Seattle last summer after a trade from Pittsburgh.
Dude might want to put one of those moving companies on retainer.
After spending the first two months on the injured list with an oblique injury, he has pitched well, putting him in position to be valued highly enough for a third straight summer move.
RHP Pierce Johnson (1 year/$6.5 million)
Another veteran reliever pitching well when healthy this season, Johnson is expected back soon from a bout of elbow inflammation that has responded well to a cortisone injection.
Until landing on the IL, he was one of Francona’s most trusted leverage relievers. And contenders will look at his 1.50 ERA in 12 postseason appearances when engaging in talks with the Reds.
LHP Brock Burke (1 year/$2.325 million)
The left-hander acquired from the Angels in a trade has been a workhorse for Francona’s injury-hammered bullpen, looking exceptional at times, albeit also surrendering too many walks.
The NL leader in appearances is a free agent at the end of the season and a sure-to-be valued commodity by late July.
1B/DH Nathaniel Lowe (1 year, $1.75 million)
Signed as a free agent after spring training camp opened in February, Lowe looked like a redundant roster piece until proving his value to a slumping lineup by earning increasing playing time after the season began until becoming a regular.
The former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner also has a World Series ring with the 2023 Texas Rangers and could have sneaky value as a trade chip.
C Tyler Stephenson (1 year/$6.8 million)
This one would hurt if only because it would seem so personal. The Reds’ 2015 first-round draft pick has developed into a productive starting catcher in his career. But extension talks in recent years have gone nowhere.
When he and the club failed to reach terms over the winter despite a relatively small gap in demands, they advanced to an arbitration hearing, where he beat the team. His value will be as strong as his hitting is in July and as strong as there is a demand for catchers, which could make for a volatile market.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Check out which Reds might be on the block at MLB trade deadline
Reporting by Gordon Wittenmyer, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
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By Gordon Wittenmyer, Cincinnati Enquirer | USA TODAY Network
