Your grocery bill keeps getting bigger, but you may not have noticed that simultaneously, some food packages are getting smaller.
A new analysis by InvestorsObserver tracked the prices and package sizes of America’s most popular grocery brands from 2020 to 2026.
The financial technology company found that the average family of four is now spending $741 more a year than in 2020 for the exact same groceries, and $41 of that increase is attributable to package-size decreases.
It’s called shrinkflation – when brands don’t just raise prices but put less product in the same package and hope consumers won’t notice.
“No one is surprised by growing prices these days, but the issue with shrinkflation is the silence around it,” said Sam Bourgi, senior analyst at InvestorsObserver. “You can clearly see when gas prices grow or rent rises – but in this case, you don’t notice when you start to overpay for less. It lands hardest on those who can afford the least.”
Some of the findings
∎ In 2021, a 15.5-ounce bag of Nacho Cheese Doritos cost $4.79. In 2022, the same bag cost $5.99. In 2023, the price stayed the same, but the bag shrank to 14.5 ounces. It now costs $6.69.
∎ In 2022, a 24-ounce box of Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes Breakfast Cereal was $3.98. By 2024, the same family-sized box had shrunk to 21.7 ounces and cost $5.48. In 2025, the price fell 9% to $4.98 but the size remained 21.7 ounces.
∎ Prices for M&Ms rose steadily from 2020 through 2023. In 2024, candymaker Mars shrank the bag from 19.2 ounces to 18.08 ounces while prices continued to rise. By 2026, a bag of M&M’s cost $9.49, up from $4.99 in 2020.
“It is a lot more difficult to notice changes in size than in price,” Bourgi said.
Methodology
InvestorsObserver’s findings are based on retail shelf prices and net weight, in ounces, collected for each product from Wayback Machine snapshots of Target.com and Walmart.com product and category pages.
Current retail prices were collected from Target.com and Walmart.com in February.Annual purchase frequencies for a household of four were derived from national per capita consumption data, scaled to four people.
One product, four sizes and prices
Coca-Cola tells the most complete shrinkflation story in the analysis, InvestorsObserver said, because it sells the same drink in four sizes at four prices.
A 2-liter bottle of Coke cost $1.89 in 2020. Today it’s $2.79 – a 48% increase over six years.
The 12-pack of cans – the format most American families reach for – jumped from $4.89 to $8.89, an 82% price increase since 2020.
But Coke in mini cans is the costliest option. Coca-Cola has aggressively pushed its 7.5-ounce “portion control” format in recent years, marketing it as a smarter, healthier choice.
Consumers buying the 10-pack of mini cans for $6.99 are paying 126% more per ounce than shoppers who buy the 2-liter bottle.
In January 2026, Coca-Cola expanded the individual mini can format to convenience stores nationwide.
The mini cans retail for $1.29 each, which works out to 12.5 cents per ounce. Compare that with 3 cents per ounce for a 2-liter bottle.
“The simplest advice we can give any Coca-Cola drinker right now: Buy the 2-liter,” Bourgi said. “Our data shows it’s the best value format by a wide margin, and that gap has only grown since 2020.”
Brands that aren’t shrinking their products
Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream is one of the brands that hasn’t touched its packaging. Between 2020 and 2026, it did raise its price per pint by 10.7%, from $4.69 to $5.19.
Breyers and Häagen-Dazs also did not decrease the size of their products and ended 2026 with prices 11% and 17% higher, respectively, than in 2020, InvestorsObserver found.
“No shrinking, no two-step strategy was done. Just modest, transparent price increases that tracked broadly with inflation,” the report stated.
“That matters because it proves the shrinkflation strategy was a choice, not a necessity,” Bourgi said. “If rising costs forced brands to shrink packages, every brand would have done it. They didn’t. Some held the line. Which means the ones that didn’t make a deliberate decision to give consumers less without telling them.”
Reporter Marcia Greenwood covers general assignments and has an interest in retail news. Send story tips to mgreenwo@rocheste.gannett.com. Follow her on X @MarciaGreenwood.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Your grocery bill is rising. Your food packages are shrinking
Reporting by Marcia Greenwood, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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