An early-season heat wave is expected to bring the first real stretch of summer-like weather to New York next week, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and possibly the lower 90s in parts of the region.
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center says a large-scale weather pattern setting up over the eastern U.S. will allow heat to build and stick around for several days. Warm air will spread in from the Midwest early in the week and settle over the East Coast through midweek before a cold front moves in late week and brings relief.
This being driven by an area of high pressure sitting over the eastern U.S, according to the Weather Prediction Center. That system acts like a lid in the atmosphere, helping trap heat near the ground and making it harder for clouds and storms to form. With more sunshine and less rain, temperatures build day after day.
“In the temperature department, heat will be making headlines for much of the Eastern U.S. for the first half of the week, with the hottest conditions across interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas where highs are likely to reach the lower to middle 90s,” the Weather Prediction Center wrote. “This will likely be warm enough to establish some daily record highs before a cold front brings relief from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by Thursday.”
The same pattern will also bring rounds of severe storms and heavy rain to parts of the Plains and Midwest, while the Northeast stays on the warmer, more humid side of the system until the front arrives.
Will New York get record-breaking temperatures?
Temperatures across New York are expected to climb steadily this weekend before peaking Tuesday into Wednesday, when much of the state will see its first widespread stretch of summerlike heat.
In New York City and the surrounding metro area, highs will rise from the 70s on Saturday into the 80s by Sunday, with some inland spots nearing 90 degrees. The National Weather Service says the warmest period will arrive early to midweek, when temperatures could run about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The city is expected to reach the upper 80s to near 90 during the peak, though coastal areas may run a bit cooler at times.
“Summer-like warmth builds this weekend into the first half of of next week,” the National Weather Service in New York City wrote. “Upper level ridging) will result in a significant warmup, with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, forecast highs fall well short of record highs, with many well into the 90s.
In western New York, including Buffalo, temperatures will follow a similar warming trend but with a slightly stronger surge of heat early next week. Highs are expected to reach the 80s Monday and Tuesday, with some inland locations potentially approaching 90 degrees. Forecasters say a shift to southwest winds will help draw warmer air into the region, along with increasing humidity.
“A substantial day-to-day warming trend begins today, with summer- like heat by early next week,” the National Weather Service office wrote. “First surge of warmer air pushes into the area Saturday, which will help boost temperatures into the 70s this weekend. A couple of low pressure systems will cut northeast through the upper Great Lakes first part of next week bringing a strong push of mid-summer like air into our area on their eastern flank. This will boost temperatures into the 80s across much of western and north-central NY Monday and Tuesday, with a run at 90F not out of the question for some of our traditionally warmest locations.”
Across both regions, forecasters note that while conditions will feel much more like summer, widespread record-breaking heat is not expected at this time. A cold front is expected to move through later in the week, bringing cooler and more seasonable air back to the state and ending the brief early-season heat wave.
Maps show how hot temperatures will get in New York
National heat index map: How hot does your city feel?
The map below identifies areas where the heat index is forecasted to reach NWS-defined levels from “Caution” (80 degrees Fahrenheit) to “Extreme Danger” (above 125 degrees).
The heat index measures how hot it actually feels when factoring for humidity. Prolonged exposure to a heat index above 80 degrees can lead to fatigue, as previously reported by USA TODAY. As it gets hotter, the risk continues to increase − potentially resulting in heat stroke or even death. Older adults, children, and outdoor workers are generally at higher risk of heat-related incidents.
Search the heat index forecast in your area
Is your city getting hotter? It’s possible! You can check the heat index forecast here to find out!
What is an extreme heat warning?
The National Weather Service issues different alerts depending on how severe and certain the heat threat is, and the thresholds vary by region.
What’s the difference between temperature and heat index?
The temperature is the actual air reading — what a thermometer records in the shade. The heat index, on the other hand, represents what it feels like to the human body when both temperature and humidity are factored in, according to the National Weather Service.
When humidity is high, sweat doesn’t evaporate as easily, making it harder for your body to cool down. That’s why the heat index is often higher than the air temperature, and why it’s used to gauge the risk of heat-related illness.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: New York heat wave mapped: 90s and feels-like near 100 next week
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
