AccuWeather and The National Weather Service have predicted warm, dry weather for the 2025 fall season, a forecast that slightly differs from the Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has predicted a cool, dry fall season for Binghamton, showing an average of 59 degrees in September — two degrees below normal — and 3.5 inches of rain. For October, the forecast predicted an average of 46 degrees — three degrees below normal — and 2.5 inches of rain.
Here’s what the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and AccuWeather expect to see this fall in the Binghamton area.
National Weather Service fall 2025 outlook
For the seasonal temperature outlook, which pertains to September, October and November 2025, the NWS outlook shows a 50-60% probability that temperatures will be above average for most of New York, including Binghamton.
In regards to precipitation, the NWS predicts Binghamton to have equal chances of precipitation.
National Weather Service Binghamton meteorologist Jim Brewster explained equal chances means there is “no clear atmospheric long range signal” to show whether the area will get more, less, or average precipitation for the area.
In other words, Brewster said there is a 33.3% chance the area will get below-average, above-average, or right at average precipitation throughout the season.
AccuWeather 2025 fall outlook
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok expects a “pretty nice fall” overall in 2025, with some dryness and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures.
In September, he said there is going to be a lot of “back and forth,” in temperature — cooler temperatures for a couple days at a time followed by warm-up periods. Despite this, there are no “extreme hot temperatures” in September, and lows could get down in the 30s early on in the month.
For precipitation, September looks dry, according to Pastelok, despite some rain in the forecast.
“Fronts will come through,” he said. “But they either may not last long here in September or just won’t amount to a whole lot so I still think we have to deal with some dryer conditions.”
October is expected to bring in temperature swings that are “more extreme,” Pastelok said.
“I can see ups in temperatures going up pretty far ahead of fronts and then really back down strong on the backside,” he explained. “I think October is still kind of a wild month across the nation.”
There is a possibility the Binghamton area could get some added moisture if precipitation comes in from the Gulf; however, Pastelok doesn’t expect this to happen until late September or into October.
If this does happen, he warned flooding may occur as a result, mostly due to the lack of moisture and therefore, harder ground.
“If we get a lot of rain in a short period of time here from any of the systems, we could have flooding easily because it will just run off instead of soak in,” he said. “So, that’s the concern going forward.”
Another minor concern is the possibility of brush fires due to dryness, and Pastelok warned residents to “be cautious” in October.
Areas like New England and Maine face a higher risk, but the Southern Tier could possibly see breakouts in “spotty brush fires” due to the combination of leaves falling and a lack of rain.
There aren’t any colder-than-normal conditions or early snow forecasts expected in October, Pastelok said, and the area shouldn’t see its first snowflake until November.
“It’s not going to be that bad of a fall in my opinion,” he said. “It’ll be warmer a little bit here, but not terribly warm, and nothing as far as early snow goes.”
This article originally appeared on Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin: Here’s what NWS, AccuWeather experts expect to see this fall in Binghamton NY
Reporting by Sunshyne Lynch, Binghamton Press & Sun Bulletin / Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin
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