ORCHARD PARK – Michael Hoecht has played in exactly one game as a member of the Buffalo Bills, their breezy blowout last week over the Carolina Panthers.
His second game? That will be Sunday afternoon when he makes his Highmark Stadium debut against none other than the Kansas City Chiefs in what is, as it usually is, one the most eagerly-anticipated matchups on the NFL schedule.
“I think we’ve all played in these big games, these games that are important, but for us, you never want the game to be more than it is, more than just a game for us,” Hoecht said. “We’ve got to prepare like it’s any other opponent, because when you start to bring too much emotion and outside stuff in, you’re going to end up thinking about that and not thinking about what you’re actually doing in the game. The best way for us to make the fan base proud is for us to go out and play our best, and to play our best, we’ve got to stay internally focused and do our thing.”
Well, that’s easy for him to say because to this point in his NFL career, the Chiefs have been largely a myth. During his first four seasons in the NFL with the Rams, he faced them just once – that in 2022, a 26-10 loss in a game where he made six tackles.
For some of the Bills – players like Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, and Dawson Knox – this is the 10th game against Kansas City since the start of 2020 and everyone knows the history.
Hoecht hasn’t lived inside this rivalry which has become one of the most heated in the league, and therefore he hasn’t suffered the heartbreak that the Chiefs have caused the Bills by ending four of their last five seasons in the postseason.
So while it’s technically true that it’s just one of 17 games in the standings, this is always more than just a game to the Bills, a feeling also shared by the Chiefs because while they’ve owned the matchup in January, Buffalo has inflicted some pain on Kansas City by winning four of the five games in the regular season.
“I think every year presents itself in a different way, in a different manner,” Allen said, trying to downplay the drama and history. “They’ve gotten our number in the playoffs a few times, and we understand that. We’re just focused on trying to go 1-0 this week in the 2025 season.”
As if he and Allen prepared the pre-game script together, Mahomes essentially said the same thing.
“You have a good familiarity with this team obviously with how many times we’ve played them and the coaches and the defenses that they play,” Mahomes said. “To me, it’s just about the next time.”
The next time has arrived, and football nation will be tuned in.
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes
There won’t be too may surprises for either quarterback because each has a bank of knowledge about the opposing defense.
“I think we’ve played them near every year since I’ve gotten here,” Allen said. “So yeah, I guess you can look at it from a perspective of we kind of understand what they try to do to us, but there’s jabs, there’s counters, there’s different things that you can do seeing each other throughout the years of making things look the same but being completely different.”
In the nine games Allen has played against the Chiefs, he is averaging 255.6 yards passing with 24 total TDs and just five interceptions while putting up 26.8 points per game. Mahomes has averaged 273.9 yards passing with 22 TDs and three picks while scoring 27.0 points per game. That’s how close it has been between these two.
But while the marquee will bill this as Allen vs. Mahomes, the battle of quarterbacks who have combined to win three NFL MVP awards, the game is about so much more.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
TE Dalton Kincaid: Last week in Carolina he returned to action after missing the Atlanta game and played a minimal role, catching just one pass for 23 yards and playing a mere 14 snaps. That was due to the run-heavy script the Bills used which had him off the field, but in this game, Kincaid is going to need to step up in a big way. The Chiefs can be vulnerable in the middle of the field against opposing TEs because players like LB Nick Bolton and slot CB Chamarri Conner can be exposed in coverage. Kansas City’s boundary CBs will likely handle Buffalo’s underwhelming receivers, but Kincaid, or even Dawson Knox, could provide Allen a key outlet.
C Connor McGovern: He was a beast last week against Carolina, destroying anything in James Cook’s way, and Pro Football Focus graded him as the Bills’ best run blocker in the game. Sunday, he’ll be crucial to the Bills success, not only because he’ll have to play a key role in containing superstar DT Chris Jones, but he’ll be responsible for helping Allen decipher the different blitzes that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will dial up. Communication is critical for an offensive line in every game, but it gets ratcheted up against Spagnuolo who is a master at coming up with the right call at the right time. McGovern’s seven pressures allowed are fewest among the starting linemen.
DE Joey Bosa: He was brought to Buffalo to upgrade the pass rush and he has done that. PFF grades him as the league’s fourth-best edge rusher which has helped the Bills produce a 9.8% sack rate, second-best in the league. Getting pressure on Mahomes is imperative because when he’s kept clean, Mahomes is completing 73.8% of his passes but when he’s under pressure, he has completed just 47.2% and taken 14 sacks. With the DT position so depleted, look for the Bills to create a rush group that includes Bosa and Greg Rousseau on the edges and the versatile Hoecht moving inside. And among their duties will be trying to contain Mahomes in the pocket and not let him get to the edges because when he does that, he’s deadly as a thrower and a runner (280 rushing yards).
CB Maxwell Hairston: It’s for offenses like this that the Bills used their 2025 first-round pick on the fastest player at the NFL scouting combine. The Chiefs have speed everywhere, and Hairston can match it. The problem, of course, is his inexperience as he has played just one game and 15 coverage snaps. Mahomes is a notorious zone killer which is why he has had so much success against the zone-heavy Bills, but when Hairston is in the game along with CB Christian Benford, the Bills can play more man-to-man and as long as Hairston doesn’t make big mistakes, the Bills will have a better chance in pass defense, especially if the rush component is succeeding.
Sal’s prediction: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
The Bills have owned the Chiefs in the regular season, having won the last four games, three of those in Kansas City and then last season when their victory in Orchard Park was one of the games of the year in the NFL. But right now, it’s tough to see that happening again for Buffalo.
Kansas City’s roster is better than Buffalo’s and the gap has widened now that the Bills are going to be without DT Ed Oliver, who joins fellow DTs DaQuan Jones and TJ Sanders on the sidelines. Even though it looks like LBs Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano will be back, the Bills’ secondary – now mixing in rookies like Maxwell Hairston and Jordan Hancock to join inconsistent Cole Bishop – is a concern against this Chiefs passing offense that has weapons everywhere.
On the other side, Buffalo’s stagnant passing game is going to be a problem until it isn’t, and one has to wonder when it won’t be, especially with WR Joshua Palmer probably out again. Cook can carry the Bills a long way, but at some point he’ll need help and if the Bills are going to win, this has to be one of those games.
Kansas City Chiefs who should impact the game
WR Rashee Rice: That said, the Bills are still going to be at a disadvantage when the Chiefs throw because Mahomes has so many viable and talented options, led by Rice. He sat out the first six games on suspension but in the two games he has played he has caught 16 of 18 targets for 135 yards and three TDs. His return makes everyone else more dangerous, and that’s a little scary. Unlike last week when Benford traveled with Carolina’s only viable WR target, Tet McMillan, he can’t do that in this game with Rice because the Chiefs also have Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, not to mention JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton.
TE Travis Kelce: It’s simply unbelievable how he has continued to be such a productive player now at the age of 36. He’s actually been better this season than in 2024 as he is averaging 4.3 yards more per catch than he did in 2024 and has already matched his TD total with three. He has 37 receptions, his 474 yards are second among all TEs only to Tyler Warren of the Colts, and a whopping 260 of those yards have come after the catch. Kelce has tortured the Bills through the years because he always finds holes in their zone defense, and there may more holes than usual as NCB Taron Johnson has not had a good season, and none of Buffalo’s LBs have performed well in coverage.
DE George Karlaftis: What makes him so tough is that he’s relentless. He doesn’t always win right away, but as long as the QB still has the ball, Karlaftis is after him and that’s how he gets the majority of his sacks. PFF has him with 42 QB pressures which is tied for third-most among edge rushers and those have led to a team-best 4.5 sacks. He also benefits from the inside pressure Jones generates which often flushes QBs to Karlaftis. He flips sides so Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown will both see him, and they have to remain diligent. Brown has allowed a sack on a team-high 16 pressures, while Dawkins has allowed two sacks on 13 pressures.
LB Nick Bolton: While he’s not great in coverage, Bolton is a force against the run and he and fellow LB Drue Tranquill will be integral in slowing down Cook. Bolton has made 26 tackles on running plays according to PFF, and 16 of those were considered stops, meaning a tackle that caused a failed play for the offense. That’s double the amount of stops Tranquill has. Bolton is also a weapon as a blitzer and he has 12 pressures.
Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 36 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Chiefs prediction, keys to one of NFL’s most fierce rivalries
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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