Life on the road is never easy in the Big 12 Conference.
No. 3 Iowa State basketball is preparing for only its second away game of the 2025-26 season, as it prepares to venture into Waco, Texas, to play Baylor on Wednesday, Jan. 7, at 7 p.m. CT. The game will be available on Peacock.
The Cyclones (14-0, 1-0 Big 12) will look to continue their undefeated start. They’ve only had one true road game to date, an 81-58 demolition of former No. 1 Purdue at Mackey Arena on Dec. 6. They’ll aim for a repeat performance at Foster Pavilion.
Baylor (10-3, 0-1) enters Wednesday’s contest fresh off a 69-63 loss to TCU on Jan. 3. The Bears have a completely rebuilt roster this season, after losing every player to graduation or the transfer portal following their 20-15 finish and NCAA Tournament appearance in the 2024-25 campaign.
This will be the first of two meetings between the Cyclones and Bears. They are scheduled to meet again at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 7. Here are three things to watch for and a prediction for Wednesday’s game:
Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou, Cameron Carr are potential NBA Draft first-round prospects
There’s still plenty of action left this season, but the Baylor wings Tounde Yessoufou and Cameron Carr have both appeared on various mock drafts.
They’re mostly projected to go somewhere in the mid-to-late first round, according to recent 2026 NBA mock drafts by ESPN and Bleacher Report. CBS Sports also has Yessoufou as a late-lottery pick.
Yessoufou has lived up to the billing as a five-star recruit who emerged out of California as the state’s all-time leading high school scorer. He’s made an immediate impact as a 6-foot-5, 215-pound true freshman. He has a chiseled, physical frame, with the motor, strength and athleticism to make him a well-rounded player.
Although Yessoufou posted just 10 points, shooting 4-of-12 in the loss to TCU, he has shown increased shooting efficiency and overall comfort as the season has unfolded. He is averaging 18.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.4 steals per game, while shooting 49.7% overall and 30.8% from deep.
As for Carr, he’s revitalized his collegiate basketball career since transferring to Baylor. A former four-star recruit out of Minnesota, Carr started his career at Tennessee. As a true freshman in the 2023-24 season, he saw action sparingly, appearing in just 14 games and averaging 4.3 minutes per outing.
He saw a slight increase in minutes the following year, before suffering a thumb injury. Carr abruptly left the team shortly after in December 2024 and entered the transfer portal in an attempt to salvage a year of eligibility.
Now with the Bears, he is the third-highest scorer in the Big 12, right behind the likes of high-profile standouts A.J. Dybantsa of BYU and Texas Tech’s J.T. Toppin.
The 6-foot-5, 175-pound redshirt sophomore wing is averaging 21.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game, while shooting 57.0% overall and 39.4% from deep.
Carr has impressive explosiveness and gets great elevation on his jump shots and block attempts. Blessed with a wingspan that is reportedly a touch below 7-foot-2, he has the tools to be an impact player defensively as well.
He is an offensive weapon and has recorded 20 or more points in seven of the Bears’ 13 games.
Baylor basketball’s offensive prowess
The Bears are entering Wednesday’s game averaging a Big 12-best 93.1 points per game. That mark is good for 11th in the country.
According to KenPom, Baylor is ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency.
While Yessoufou and Carr lead the charge, they have four other players averaging in double figures: Cincinnati transfer Dan Skillings Jr., Wyoming transfer Obi Agbim, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer Isaac Williams IV and former Oregon State forward Michael Rataj.
The Bears also recently added James Nnaji, a controversial midseason roster addition. Nnaji, a 7-foot center and the 31st overall pick of the 2023 NBA Draft, enrolled at Baylor for the spring semester and was granted four years of eligibility by the NCAA as a 21-year old player.
Nnaji never played in an official NBA game. He did previously play in the NBA Summer League, but he was a draft-and-stash pick that never panned out. He spent the last five years playing overseas professionally for FC Barcelona, but his draft rights were part of the trade that ultimately brought Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks.
Nnaji didn’t look impressive in his Baylor debut against TCU, recording five points, four boards and four fouls through 16 minutes of action.
While the Bears have been a high-scoring machine, they haven’t been able to crack defense-first teams. They lost by 17 points to St. John’s, albeit in a high-scoring affair, at the Players Era Festival. Their other losses came against Memphis and TCU. The Horned Frogs limited them to a season-low 63 points.
They also don’t have a true primary playmaker or facilitator and that has impacted the Bears, especially in close games.
Iowa State will have to beat Baylor on the glass
Attention to detail and physicality will be tested in this contest.
Baylor has outrebounded opponents in 10 of 13 games this season.
The Bears excel the most on the offensive glass. According to KenPom, they have a staggering offensive rebounding rate of 41.1%, which is the fourth-best mark in Division I.
Rataj, a 6-foot-8 starting forward, and 6-foot-9 reserve Caden Powell are the top rebounders on the team, but it’s a team-wide tenacity from top to bottom when it comes to corralling offensive rebounds and creating second-chance opportunities.
Skillings, Yessoufou and Carr are all skillful, high-effort wings that also make an impact on the glass and fight for rebounds. Having Nnaji will certainly help the Bears’ rebounding effort as well.
Boxing out will be imperative.
TCU didn’t have overwhelming size and had a shorter team-wide average height, but the Horned Frogs’ effort on the glass was a crucial part of their 69-63 win. TCU won in both the offensive and defensive rebounding margins. Overall, it outrebounded Baylor, 43-34, for the game.
Iowa State basketball vs. Baylor prediction
While Baylor has done a good job of keeping a respectable turnover rate of 15.1% without a standout facilitator or primary playmaker, that may be exposed by the Cyclones’ unrelenting pressure. Also, although the Bears have played well offensively, there has been some shakiness on defense. Iowa State’s well-roundedness should be enough to overtake Baylor’s star tandem.
Prediction: Iowa State 81, Baylor 71
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State basketball vs. Baylor prediction, 3 things to watch
Reporting by Eugene Rapay, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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