Nonpartisan elections analysts at the Cook Political Report have labeled Iowa’s governor’s race as a “toss-up,” moving it into the most competitive category the organization tracks.
“The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner,” wrote Matthew Klein, an analyst who focuses on gubernatorial contests.
Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand is the lone Democrat in the race. He will face the winner of a five-person Republican primary contest.
Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra is the perceived frontrunner, though there has been a dearth of independent polling. Still, Cook Political Report notes that internal polls from sources in both parties show Sand with a lead over Feenstra.
“Even if Sand pitches a perfect game, there’s no guarantee he can pull off an upset in a state that has become decidedly Republican,” Klein writes. “But everything that can go right for Democrats has so far, giving the party a real shot at winning the governorship for the first time since 2006.”
The article cites Sand’s financial strength — he raised $18 million going into this year — as well as his focus on government accountability and his aggressive early campaign schedule.
Add in a national and state political climate that “appears primed for Democratic inroads,” Klein writes, and Sand has a chance to flip control of the governor’s mansion.
Sand’s deputy campaign manager, Emma O’Brien, said in a statement that the ratings shift shows the campaign has momentum.
“Iowans across the state and across the political spectrum are rallying behind a campaign that listens to them and puts them first, not partisan insiders or special interests,” she said. “Rob is proving that this race isn’t about party labels — it’s about who will deliver real results for Iowans and bring an end to the status quo that has failed Iowans for the last decade of one-party rule.”
Is Iowa governor’s race truly a toss-up? Republicans say ‘not at all’
But Cook also notes the headwinds facing Democrats.
“Republicans plan to paint Sand as a card-carrying liberal who supports higher taxes, which they believe will help prevent GOP defections to his campaign,” Klein wrote. “Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, so it may not require much more than that for voters to default back to their partisan baselines.”
Republicans in the state have also amassed a major voter registration advantage.
Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who will not seek another term in office, told reporters she does not believe Iowa’s race is a toss-up.
“Not at all,” she said. “… I’m not saying it’s not going to be hard. Nobody goes into these races thinking it’s a cakewalk. I definitely don’t think that. But I definitely think that we’ll be fine.”
She said Republicans have “great candidates” and a strong record of success in leadership.
“We’ve done a lot, and I think we’ve got a great record to run on,” she said. “And I think you’re going to see the economy turning around. We already are.”
Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann disputed Cook’s analysis in a social media post.
“This new @CookPolitical analysis is lazy, naïve, uses Sand internal polling, and regurgitates Democrat talking points — while ignoring @IowaGOP 200,000 voter registration advantage,” he wrote. “Sand’s millionaire in-laws may be able to buy him name ID, but they’ve been on their yacht in the Mediterranean for far too long if they think they can buy him votes in Iowa.”
A separate elections analysis group, Inside Elections, moved Iowa’s governor’s race in favor of Democrats with its latest ratings in March.
That group moved Iowa from a “likely Republican” rating to the more competitive “leans Republican.” That is still a step away from “tilts Republican” and two steps away from “toss-up.”
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She writes about campaigns, elections and the Iowa Caucuses. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on X at @brianneDMR.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa governor’s race moves to ‘toss-up’ as GOP ups Rob Sand attacks
Reporting by Brianne Pfannenstiel and Stephen Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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