Coming Monday, Feb. 2, a groundhog is set to predict the future for Americans across the country who may be wondering … will this winter ever end?
By now, it seems safe to say that Punxsutawney Phil can’t really tell what the remainder of winter may hold. But hefty sets of data and a meteorologist will be able to shed some insights into winter trends and the peculiarity of this season’s winter.
So, what is the long-range forecast?
According to WNDU-TV meteorologist Jack Van Meter, South Bend residents may see some warming relief going into early February, although this winter isn’t over just quite yet.
“We are going to cool down as we look at the end of February into March and then, hopefully, after that, then we can settle into more spring-like patterns,” Van Meter said.
“There are going to be a couple of peaks and valleys in the rest of the forecast for winter,” Van Meter said. “Hopefully, though, were not seeing any long-term soundings or ranges that are saying we’re getting back this polar and arctic cold that we’ve been dealing with.”
Is this winter truly that unusual?
Yes, this winter is relatively unusual compared to the past four seasons.
Van Meter said South Bend hasn’t seen this level of snowfall so early in the season since the winter of 2017-18, when South Bend saw 91.6 inches of snowfall between November 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018.
“The winters we’ve seen since 2018 have been well below average,” he said.
“We have already surpassed the level of snowfall we saw last year back in December,” Van Meter said. “It’s been a bit of a pattern switch.”
The recent trend has been toward milder snowfall accumulations. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the last four winter seasons show:
● 54.8 inches in 2021-22
● 56.9 inches in 2022-23
● 28.9 inches in 2023-24
● 38.4 inches in 2024-25
By contrast, since this season’s first snow flakes began to fall Nov. 8, 2025, South Bend has witnessed 75 inches of snowfall, and the season still has two months to go.
Just in the first 27 days of January 2026, South Bend has accumulated 36 inches of snow. Six of those inches fell between Jan. 24 and 26 during the winter storm the hit much of the country, while 12.6 inches fell Jan. 14, making that the largest single-day snowfall of this winter.
What makes this winter different?
This winter has been greatly affected by cold air coming from the north and more lake-effect events, Van Meter said.
“We’ve had three lake-effect events this year, just in Northern Indiana-Southwestern Michigan that have produced over a foot of snowfall this season,” Van Meter said. “That’s fairly unusual to have multiple in a season.”
This season is a ‘La Niña’ year, which brings cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface off the West Coast, pulling cooler, wetter air to the north and dryer, warmer air to the south.
“La Niña is affecting the overall pattern of what we are seeing,” Van Meter said. “When we have La Niña here in Northern Indiana-Southern Michigan, you’re going to see above average precipitation and you’re also going to be seeing colder than average temperatures.
“When you combine the two of those, more times than not, you are going to be seeing more snowfall events,” he said. “Anytime you are going to be seeing below average temperatures in the wintertime … couple that with more moisture, that’s either going to freeze or rain, you’re just going to have a more impactful winter.”
Experiencing winter fatigue?
Although winter may not be done with South Bend yet, Van Meter says we’re almost through the worst of the worst.
“The forecast is looking better for next week, at least warming back into the 20s,” he said.
For the 10-day forecast that WNDU posted Friday, Jan. 30, includes a 40% chance of snow Feb. 2, a 30% chance for Feb. 4 and a possibility of snow Feb. 6. But WNDU also predicts temperatures will reach 30 degrees Feb. 5 and 32 degrees Feb. 6.
“Keep on keeping on. We’re OK, and just because this isn’t out of the normal completely, it is out of recent memory,” Van Meter said, referring to the last three winter seasons. “Just hang in there. We’re getting through it.”
Email Tribune staff writer Juliane Balog at jbalog@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: What can South Bend residents expect to see for the rest of winter?
Reporting by Juliane Balog , South Bend Tribune / South Bend Tribune
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
