Warmer weather this week in central Indiana might leave some Hoosiers pining for autumn. And who could blame them? On Monday, meteorologists in Indianapolis warned the heat index could make some area temperatures feel like 110.
We prefer a different kind of sweater weather.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its 2026 extended fall forecast, offering a look at what temperatures and precipitation could be across the United States.
The Almanac, which has been predicting weather since 1818, expects a mixed bag this fall, with some regions forecast to be cooler and wetter than average while others could see warmer and drier conditions.
Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast for Midwest and by region
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published long-range weather predictions for more than two centuries, using a proprietary forecasting method it says combines solar activity, climate patterns and historical weather trends. The publication boasts 80% accuracy, though some experts claim it’s closer to 50%.
Meteorologists often caution that forecasts made several months in advance carry significant uncertainty, especially at the local level.
When does fall 2026 begin?
The first official day of fall 2026 is Tuesday, Sept. 22, marking the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.
The equinox occurs when the sun crosses the celestial equator, bringing nearly equal amounts of daylight and darkness around the world. After the equinox, days will continue to grow shorter and nights longer across Indiana and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere until the winter solstice in December.
For meteorologists, however, fall begins earlier. The meteorological fall season starts Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns.
When will cold air move into the state? Indiana average first frost dates
Records kept by NWS show Indianapolis residents can expect the average first freeze of the year (when temperatures drop below 32 degrees) by Oct. 28. The first hard freeze usually hits around Nov. 5.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, these are the average dates for the first frost of fall in major cities across Indiana.
El Niño potential effects for fall 2026
A potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is drawing attention from climate scientists and long-range forecasters, who are watching how the pattern could influence weather around the globe.
Forecasters say it is still too early to determine exactly how the developing El Niño will affect the country, but past strong events provide clues.
When does El Niño start?
El Niño doesn’t start on a fixed date. It begins when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific warm above average and stay elevated for several months, signaling a shift in both ocean and atmospheric patterns.
They also don’t occur on a strict schedule. They tend to emerge irregularly every two to seven years, depending on how ocean temperatures, wind patterns and broader climate conditions evolve.
Most El Niño events typically form between March and June, strengthen through summer and into fall, peak between November and January, and fade in late winter and spring.
How long does El Niño last?
El Niño is usually a one-season-to-one-year event, not a multi-year climate phase like La Niña can sometimes appear to be in extended cycles, according to NOAA.
In the current outlook, conditions are already present. They are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, which suggests this event could persist from its development phase in 2026 into early 2027 before gradually weakening.
U.S. weather watches and warnings map
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John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: It’s hot. We’re over it. Old Farmer’s Almanac gives Midwest fall forecast
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison and John Tufts, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Brandi D. Addison and John Tufts, Indianapolis Star | USA TODAY Network
