Can a two-term state legislator from Mooresville, Indiana, oust longtime Congressman Jim Baird to clinch the GOP nomination for the 4th Congressional District in the May 5 primary election?
Craig Haggard believes he can, though little precedent exists for a primary upset in the deep-red district, which includes the western portion of central Indiana and extends to the northern third of the state. Incumbents tend to get a boost across the board, and Baird’s last primary challenger in 2024 lost by nearly 40 percentage points. Baird has not faced another primary challenger since his initial election in 2018, where he won with a plurality in a crowded field that included Gov. Mike Braun’s late brother Steve Braun and now-Secretary of State Diego Morales.
Plus, Baird outraised Haggard in the first quarter of 2026 by a little less than $30,000, a not insignificant amount since both candidates have only thousands — not millions, like some congressional races — to spend. Haggard raised a little less than $50,000 this quarter and has $114,000 in cash on hand. Baird raised around $78,000 and has $179,000 on hand, according to FEC data.
The glimmer of hope for Haggard in an increasingly messy primary election may instead lie with an anti-establishment fervor sweeping the nation. Several incumbents have lost their seats to enterprising challengers this year, particularly ones that have positioned themselves as the most conservative option. President Donald Trump has endorsed Baird, but prominent conservative voices in his political orbit, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, are supporting Haggard.
Baird’s campaign rejected the premise that Haggard’s campaign has momentum.
John Piper, who received 8% of the vote in 2024’s primary, has also filed to run this year. Piper did not file an FEC report, which means he likely raised less than $12,500, the first quarter threshold that requires candidates to file a report.
A contentious race
The race for Baird’s seat became contentious long before the filing deadline.
In 2025, Haggard criticized Baird for perceived nepotism, publicly suggesting that Baird was using taxpayer dollars to prop up his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, as his successor in Congress. The elder Baird has denied that claim.
Baird’s campaign has also gone on the offensive, issuing press releases and statements that have only appeared to intensify as the election nears: a potential sign Baird’s victory isn’t guaranteed.
“Craig Haggard’s campaign is built on smoke and mirrors with no real structure, no serious operation, and propped up by his state house campaign account,” Kory Wood, an advisor to the Baird campaign, told IndyStar in an email. “In contrast, Congressman Jim Baird is delivering real results for Hoosiers, both at home and in Washington.”
Wood pointed to Haggard’s 2025 state campaign finance report, which showed payments totaling $20,000 to Alex Stencel, who now serves as the political director for Haggard’s congressional campaign, according to Stencel’s social media. The expenses reported on the state legislative filing list Stencel as “state director,” though Haggard wasn’t running for re-election as a state representative at the time.
Haggard denied the claim, telling IndyStar that Stencel was his state campaign director and only became his congressional director because Haggard was impressed by his work. He described the employee’s role as similar to a legislative assistant, including fielding calls about legislation like Senate Enrolled Act 1. Because Haggard was exploring a run for Congress at the time, he said he made sure to have Stencel remind callers that they could only discuss state campaign matters.
Stencel told IndyStar he was hired as Haggard’s state director in May 2024. He dismissed the allegations as “mudslinging.”
The Baird campaign is also blasting Haggard for accepting contributions from Liberty Unchained Super PAC, which has the CEO of Lifeline Data Centers listed as its treasurer. In a news release highlighting the PAC, the Baird campaign points to Haggard’s role as a co-author on House Bill 1333, a controversial bill that would have incentivized locals to accept data centers and clear roadblocks to their development on less productive soil. Most House Republicans, including Baird’s son, Rep. Beau Baird, voted for the bill after it was promised that its more polarizing provisions would be amended; it ultimately died before reaching the Senate floor.
“Craig Haggard is a bought-and-paid-for wannabe politician bankrolled by data centers and their CEOs,” Wood said in the news release.
But Haggard said Carroll is supporting him not because of his view on data centers, but because they are both board members for the National Rifle Association. He said he hasn’t received any donations from data centers. And his support for HB 1333 started before the bill was significantly changed in committee, Haggard said.
Haggard accused the Baird campaign of making up stories.
“This is why people want a change in D.C.,” Haggard said.
A serious candidate
There appears to be a few factors working in Haggard’s favor, even as Baird benefits from the incumbency advantage.
One is a decent fundraising effort, said Michael O’Brien, a managing partner at 1816 Public Affairs Group with decades of experience in politics.
“He’s going toe-to-toe on money,” O’Brien said, “which is kind of one of the litmus tests of ‘do you have a legitimate campaign.'”
While Haggard trails Baird slightly in fundraising, Haggard outperformed Baird’s 2024 primary challenger when it comes to campaign contributions during the same period. Haggard also argues his ability to nearly match Baird in terms of fundraising is a testament to his viability as a candidate.
“I would assume the congressman would raise more money than me,” he told IndyStar.
He has also been open about his Capitol Hill ambitions for several years now, O’Brien said, which helps with name recognition. And while Baird is generally well-liked, he said, the “mood is souring” on the Trump administration, particularly surrounding the war in Iran and the saga of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
“We’re going to see if the Trump endorsement still has the same juice it used to have,” he said.
The jury’s also out on whether Rokita’s endorsement of Haggard will matter. Typically, endorsements serve as a way for a voter to reinforce their initial leanings and don’t often make or break races. Rokita, who held the 4th Congressional District seat before Baird, could possibly hold more sway than the average endorsement, O’Brien said.
Republicans divided
On paper, Haggard and Baird aren’t that different politically.
Baird has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association; Haggard has the endorsement of the NRA board director and is a board member himself. Baird has the endorsement of the Indiana Farm Bureau; Haggard has the endorsement of the Hendricks County Farm Bureau president. Both are veterans who have served a stint in the Indiana General Assembly.
Instead, Haggard and his supporters have argued the district needs “new blood.” To Haggard, Baird represents a deadlocked and polarized system in D.C. that’s becoming increasingly toxic to voters.
“Right or wrong,” he said, “I think that people are getting frustrated with both sides of the aisle in D.C.”
And while Baird has reeled in some of standard national endorsements, Haggard noted his local endorsements, including state lawmakers like Rep. Lorissa Sweet, R-Wabash; Rep. Andrew Ireland, R-Indianapolis; and Rep. J.D. Prescott, R-Union City.
Early voting for the primary election is already underway. The last day to vote in May 5.
Contact breaking politics reporter Marissa Meador at mmeador@indystar.com or find her on X at @marissa_meador.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Could this small-town state lawmaker defeat a sitting congressman?
Reporting by Marissa Meador, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
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