The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are down to their final life in the game to win their fifth straight NFC South title.
They came out of their Week 9 bye week 6-2 looking like not only the surefire divisional favorite, but a contender for the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed. They’ve suffered two separate three-game losing streaks since, falling to 7-8 after a 23-20 loss last week to the Carolina Panthers, who overtook the Bucs atop the NFC South. Baker Mayfield got off to a good start with a first-quarter touchdown pass to Mike Evans, but his rally to win at the gun ended with a brutal interception.
The Bucs will get another shot at Bryce Young and company again in the regular-season finale, but if they lose today’s game to the Miami Dolphins, their hopes at exacting revenge and punching their playoff ticket on the final day could go up in smoke. They would appear to have a good chance at staying alive with quarterback Quinn Ewers getting just his second career start for the Dolphins, but the way this season has gone, nothing can be taken for granted.
Watch Buccaneers vs. Dolphins game live
The Panthers might have jumped the Bucs in the standings, but they’re hardly catching fire. Carolina has alternated wins and losses since Oct. 26, and while it could clinch the division today, it would have to take down the Seattle Seahawks, who enter the day tied for the best record in the NFL. The Athletic’s playoff simulator gives Tampa Bay a 55% chance to make the playoffs — yes, better than the odds for the division leaders — that goes up to 64% if they win today.
Here’s a look at the playoff scenarios in the NFC South, including tiebreakers, plus how to watch Bucs-Dolphins and Panthers-Seahawks today on TV and streaming:
Bucs playoff scenarios: What needs to happen for Tampa Bay to make it
The Bucs need to win the NFC South to make the playoffs. They’re a game behind the Panthers after last week’s loss, and they’ll need to win next week’s rematch to have a shot winning the division. Tampa would help its chances if it wins today at 6-9 Miami, but if Carolina falls at home to 12-3 Seattle, a loss to the Dolphins wouldn’t kill the Bucs’ hopes.
Here are the ways the Bucs can make the playoffs over the final two weeks:
NFC playoff picture
The four division leaders hold the top four seeds in the playoffs, with the top seven teams overall qualifying for the playoffs. The only spot still up for grabs is the one guaranteed to the NFC South winner, which will be either Tampa Bay or Carolina. The conference’s top seed and first-round bye could go to either the Seahawks, Bears, Rams or 49ers. San Francisco hosts Chicago today and Seattle in Week 18.
Records accurate entering Saturday’s games:
*- clinched playoff berth; ^- clinched division; e- eliminated from playoffs
Buccaneers vs. Panthers tiebreakers
If the Bucs win in Week 18 to give them an identical record as the Panthers, the NFC South would come down to a tiebreaker. That would favor Tampa Bay because of its superior record against common opponents: The Bucs beat Arizona 20-17 in Week 13, while the Panthers’ comeback effort against those same Cardinals came up short in a 27-22 loss all the way back in Week 2. Both teams’ outcomes today are also against common opponents, and Carolina making up the difference would also guarantee them a better overall record than Tampa regardless of their Week 18 head-to-head result.
Here are the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures and how they relate to Tampa Bay vs. Carolina. All numbers are accurate entering Week 17:
Buccaneers schedule
Here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s schedule for the final month of the season. All times Eastern:
Panthers schedule
Here’s a look at Carolina’s schedule for the final month of the season. All times Eastern:
Watch Panthers vs. Seahawks game live
NFL playoff picture
The AFC playoff bracket has two slots open: one for the AFC North winner (either Pittsburgh or Baltimore) and the final wild card (Houston or Indianapolis). The Texans could ascent to not only the AFC South lead but even the No. 1 seed, or they could lose out and miss the playoffs entirely. If the Steelers lose to the Browns and the Ravens beat the Packers, it sets up a winner-take-all game in Week 18 for the AFC North in Pittsburgh.
Records accurate entering Saturday’s games:
*- clinched playoff berth
How to watch Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
How to watch Panthers vs. Seahawks
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Will the Bucs miss NFL playoffs? Here are Tampa Bay’s scenarios
Reporting by Dan Rorabaugh, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
