Praemonitus praemunitus − that’s the Latin proverb usually translated as “to be forewarned is to be forearmed.”
Its historic use is in military contexts − emphasizing that knowing the enemy’s plans in advance allows us to better prepare and be equipped to respond.
It is a timely admonition. The crisis we face is not whether we will have fair elections this November. This issue is how our elections will be assaulted – and how we can work together to protect our fragile democracy.
Wake up and smell the coffee: The manipulation of our elections is well underway.
President Trump has been undermining confidence in democratic elections − in preparation for rejecting the results.
A losing candidate who dispatched thugs to take over the nation’s Capitol to block the certification of his opponent’s victory will stop at nothing to prevent restraints on the unaccountable power he has been enjoying. He will use all the tools available to him – the FBI, ICE, agents of the Department of Justice, a federalized National Guard, etc.
He has floated the idea of “nationalizing elections” or taking over elections in selected jurisdictions, whatever that means given the constitutional and practical barriers.
The president’s constant drumbeat about “election integrity” may be an acknowledgement that the party in power is losing the battle of ideas because its policies are becoming more unpopular each day. But he has also revealed a number of tactics for how elections can be assaulted and manipulated.
To continue the military metaphor, Trump’s campaign raising concerns about election integrity is the “softening” that comes before an invasion. By Executive Orders, other federal initiatives, and state-based restrictions he can inspire, the coming assault can be thought of in three distinct phases.
∙ Changing the rules prior to election
∙ Partisan redistricting – “packing” or “cracking” communities of interests, thereby diminishing the power of their vote.
∙ Additional burdens on voter registration and voting. The pending SAVE America Act, now before Congress, requires documentary proof of citizenship. This is a particular problem for women who take their husband’s last name resulting in a mismatch of her name on her Birth Certificate and her Passport or Driver’s License. New Florida legislation limits acceptable forms of identification, explicitly excluding university-issued IDs.
Election officials could reduce opportunities to vote by imposing additional restrictions on voting by mail or limiting days, hours and locations for early voting.
Eligible but inactive voters could be prematurely purged from voter rolls.
Election Day and early voting period
We should anticipate last-minute changes in location of polling places, especially in targeted precincts.
Voters are discouraged from voting by faulty election administration − for example by insufficient functioning voting equipment or staffing.
Voters have been subjected to disinformation about voting locations, hours, closures and eligibility. In this election there could be disinformation about voters being arrested for outstanding warrants or unpaid fines if they show up at a polling location.
We can anticipate aggressive challenges of a voter’s eligibility by election officials or activist groups.
Threats to prosecute technical violations as voter fraud or to send federalized troops to “monitor” elections or to send ICE to arrest ineligible non-citizens attempting to vote will have the effect of depressing voter turnout.
Law enforcement should be prepared to deal with mobs attempting to disrupt voting.
Post election
Election officials could reject valid votes – mailed ballots received after Election Day though postmarked before or valid provisional ballots or by changing rules for ballot curing.
We have already witnessed election officials refusing to certify election results or certify timely.
The president has threatened to (and expressed regrets that he failed to) seize ballots and/or voting machines.
This time around law enforcement should prepare for mobs attempting to prevent the swearing in of the winner of an election.
This can’t be a complete list. Desperation breeds inventiveness. Nevertheless I hope this list helps pro-democracy activists prepare to defend our electoral democracy.
The coming elections will be a test of the integrity and fidelity to the oath of office of public officials at many levels – especially the judiciary, but also state and federal legislators, election administrators, prosecutors and law enforcement.
And it will test the courage of ordinary citizens including the army of civic and professional associations that De Tocqueville noted were so significant in American life.
We cannot be passive observers. We can’t put our heads down and wait for the storm to blow over. There is no savior on the horizon. An engaged public, prepared to take to the streets in peaceful protest, is the cavalry that will save American democracy.
Howard L. Simon, Ph.D., served as executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Florida from 1997–2018.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: The manipulation of our elections is well underway | Opinion
Reporting by Howard L. Simon / Fort Myers News-Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
