A preview of the coming summer rainy season will be on display this week as a low-pressure system works its way over the Naples area May 12 and May 13.
Rain chances will be as high as 50% Wednesday afternoon, which means approximately half of the area will get measurable precipitation.
“The highest chances for precipitation will be more to the interior and eastward, toward the Everglades,” said Nico Porcelli, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.
“There will be a 25% to 35% chance along the coast and as you go toward the Everglades you have a 50% to 60% chance of rain.”
Porcelli said sea breezes have been blowing onshore on the East Coast and here in the Naples-Marco Island area.
The sea breezes typically meet somewhere over the historic Everglades, and that’s where the action starts.
“We have the Atlantic winds onshore for the East Coast and Gulf winds onshore for the West Coast and where they meet in the middle it causes the air to rise,” Porcelli said.
“Sometimes the sea breeze is stronger from one side or the other and it will be closer to coastal areas but these last couple of days it’s been mainly over the Everglades.”
Day-to-day summer conditions here are dictated mostly by onshore sea breezes that carry moisture from the Gulf.
During the summer, onshore winds push the moisture over land, and the rains can fall anywhere from the coastal Gulf and barrier islands inland and to the East Coast.
“Right now, we still have westerly flow, and it’s bringing more moisture into the area,” said NWS meteorologist Stephen Shiveley. “That will kick in the sea breeze.”
Rain from low-pressure system more likely inland, NWS says
Coastal barrier island like Marco Island often see less rain than inland areas, mostly because onshore flow pushes the rain clouds toward areas like the Everglades and the Big Cypress National Preserve.
During summer conditions, rain may stay out over the open Gulf, or it may be pushed over the peninsula and toward the East Coast.
Dry, warm conditions are expected for the rest of the week.
“It will dry us out on Wednesday and that cuts off any shower chances for the rest of the week,” Shiveley said.
When will daily summer rains start?
The average start of the rainy season for this area is May 15, according to historical weather conditions.
Daily afternoon thunderstorms, though, may not be prevalent for another month, Shiveley said.
The 2026 rainy season is certainly not starting early, which would be ideal for an area gripped in dry conditions during the height of wildfire season.
Lee and Collier counties were in drought conditions through July 1 last year, according to weather records.
Rains not expected to impact drought conditions
Nearly all of Florida is in a state of drought, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
At this point, any rain is welcome, but the coming system isn’t expected to make a measurable dent in the drought. conditions.
“This is not going to be a drought-buster for us,” Shiveley said. “We’re not looking at much ― maybe a quarter to a half inch of rain.”
Shiveley said the drought conditions may last well into the summer, possibly into July.
“It’s really difficult to tell exactly when the drought is going to be completely done” Shiveley said. “In June, we’ll start seeing some improvement and through July but to be completely done with it by July, I’m not real confident in that.”
Chad Gillis is an environment reporter and can be reached by email at cgillis@news-press.com.
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Rain, rain, come this way. Naples may see light rains this week
Reporting by Chad Gillis, Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News / Fort Myers News-Press
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