There may be tropical trouble brewing in the Atlantic.
There’s no maybe when it comes to activity in the Pacific, where Tropical Depression 5-E may be joined by another tropical depression or two later this week or the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Some forecasters are saying there’s is a small chance of something tropical developing in the Gulf this weekend or early next week.
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The National Hurricane Center said at 8 a.m. July 15 an area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf. The disturbance has a low chance for development as it moves slowly to the northeast.
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Florida residents shouldn’t be concerned about the lone tropical wave out there.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
That doesn’t mean to ignore them.
“It will be especially important to closely monitor every tropical wave this season,” DaSilva said.
“Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States.”
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 15.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Is a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear has been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop.
That may change.
Flooding rain may hit the Southeast this weekend as tropical development near the Gulf Coast remains possible, even if no named storm ultimately forms, according to AccuWeather.
The National Hurricane Center said July 15 there’s a low chance for tropical development in the Gulf over the weekend.
“If you follow these things, however, you’ve probably seen chatter about the models showing a system developing in the Gulf over the weekend or early next week,” said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.
“So far, we believe the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in this area is low, but probably represents the best chance for tropical development throughout the Atlantic basin prior to the end of July,” DaSilva said.
“Exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures, about 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above historical average for this time of year, create favorable conditions for tropical development.
“For a tropical depression or storm to develop, a low-pressure area would first have to organize, acquire tropical characteristics and remain over water long enough to strengthen.”
“The European AI model, which is a product of the European Center that also runs the traditional European model, wants to spin something up near Florida’s Big Bend or over the northern Florida peninsula over the weekend,” Norcross said.
“The Google DeepMind AI model gives development a 10-15% chance, and other models show little or no development over the water.
“There’s a high chance a low-pressure system will be over North Florida or the Gulf in about a week. But it’s going to be induced by a sharp dip in the jet stream, in other words by non-tropical processes. And most models indicate that whatever forms is likely to pretty quickly move north over the Southeast next week,” Norcross said.
Bottom line: Forecasters are watching it but dry air and “hostile” upper-level winds make a significant tropical system nothing to be concerned about, Norcross said.
The only named storm so far this year has been Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed June 17. On average, the second named storm of the Atlantic season forms by July 17.
The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
“Heavy rain would likely be the main impact from this storm, likely along the Florida Panhandle and the surrounding southeastern U.S.,” DaSilva said.
“Depending on the organization and intensity of the storm, heavy rain could also move northward into other Southeast states.”
National Hurricane Center watching area with low potential for development in Gulf
The National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. July 15, was watching an area showing a low potential for development.
Northeastern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week.
There was one tropical wave out there:
Tropical Storm Elida forms in Pacific, expected to become hurricane
In the Pacific, Tropical Depression 5-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Elida.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring three tropical disturbances. Tropical Depression 5-E is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by late July 15. If so, it would be the Pacific’s fifth named storm of the season, Elida.
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 15, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated to include new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center tracking Gulf disturbance. What it means for Florida
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
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By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
