Well, it’s happened. It’s gotten even more ridiculous.
A mild blast of research shows that last October at the Charlotte Roval, Shane van Gisbergen was listed as an even-money favorite (+100 on the board, meaning you have to bet $100 to win $100, $10 to win $10, etc.).
SVG was riding a four-race win streak on road courses, but still I was among those who thought those odds were nuts, given all that can go wrong during an automobile race. And, of course, considering there were about three-dozen other drivers trying to win.
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Shane won, by the way.
And now, after finishing second and first in this season’s first two road races, we see this unbelievable number next to his name: -150. That’s right, you’d have to wager $150 to net a $100 payoff.
In traditional odds, SVG is going off at 2-to-3 entering the weekend. Hell, it might go lower after qualifying.
Why now? Why this week? First, the obvious: He’s NASCAR’s best at this stuff.
But also important: No one in the field has any experience on this Coronado Naval Base street course. That won’t necessarily make the mortals feel uncomfortable, but it certainly doesn’t give them any of the comfort that comes from basic familiarity.
So, all things equal in those terms, it’s easy to see why NASCAR’s “king of the road” is so heavily favored.
But still, -150? That’s nuts.
What are the odds? Shane van Gisbergen makes history
-150: Shane van Gisbergen
In 1967, Richard Petty won 27 of the 48 Cup Series races he entered in that busy period of NASCAR history. That included a run of 10 straight wins. If there had been betting apps then, you assume King Richard might’ve gone off at -150 somewhere along the way. But that’s the only other driver and only other time this kind of number seems possible.
If not SVG, who? Tyler Reddick could use a win
+700: Connor Zilisch
+900: Tyler Reddick
+1400: Ty Gibbs
+2000: Michael McDowell
+3000: AJ Allmendinger, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, William Byron
Connor Z likely circled these next two races way back in the preseason, given his road-course acumen. After the rotten season of poor runs and bad luck he’s endured, he’s likely looking forward to them more than he’d imagined.
Why is Denny Hamlin hanging out with Kevin Magnussen?
+4000: Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney
+5000: Daniel Suarez, Kevin Magnussen, Ross Chastain
+6000: Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin
+7500: Carson Hocevar, Joey Logano
Denny has won three straight poles and three straight races, and has been just as dominant as that sounds. Seeing him mid-pack like this tells you something about his lack of appetite for right-hand turns. For Magnussen, a veteran of nine F1 seasons, this should be a bit of culture shock in his stock-car debut.
Long …
+10000: Austin Cindric, Corey Heim
+15000: Ryan Preece
+20000: Bubba Wallace
… Longer …
+25000: Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, John Hunter Nemechek, Zane Smith
+50000: Austin Hill, Cole Custer, Jimmie Johnson, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse, Riley Herbst, Todd Gilliland
… and longest of longshots
+100000: Josh Berry, Ty Dillon
+250000: Cody Ware
Cindric is a strange case. He grew up a road-racer, and from 2019-21, five of his 13 O’Reilly Series wins came on road layouts. Earlier this decade, he had a good run of top-10s on them, but since then, he’s been fairly horrible. Weird.
— Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR betting odds for San Diego race feature an unthinkable number
Reporting by Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal | USA TODAY Network
