Some hurricane forecasting models were expressing halfhearted to mildly animated interest in a coast-hugging tropical cyclone spinning up in the northern Gulf over the next week.
But the National Hurricane Center has nothing on its calendar as of early Tuesday, July 14, and even if something did form, it would likely be more akin to a soft and soggy Arthur struggling to find purchase over water before melting over land.
Still, “homegrown” storms that form off the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, now referred to as the Gulf of America by the U.S. Government, are the norm in July as the main runway between Africa and the Caribbean is still chocking on Saharan dust and strafed by wind shear.
At the same time, stalled frontal boundaries or a drooping jet stream draped across the southern U.S. are catalysts for storms in early summer and that may be what models are picking up on.
Bryan Norcross, FOX Weather hurricane specialist, said the heralded Google DeepMind artificial intelligence model showed a 10% to 15% chance on Monday of development next week, but that it wasn’t necessarily showing the formation of a tropical cyclone as much as an area of low pressure developing.
It has since backed off even that.
“The model overstates the odds of genesis when it comes from a non-tropical source,” Norcross said. “I’m not saying there is a zero chance, but if it’s less than 10% we don’t talk about it because if we talked about all the small chances we would talk about it all the time and it would not be good for everyone’s psyche.”
Heavy rainfall possible in the Panhandle into early next week
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster, said he’s also putting little faith in anything forming in the Gulf as a pulse of moisture-laden spin moves in from the western Caribbean to collide with the low latitude jet stream.
“It’s not a prime environment for development,” DaSilva said. “But even if it doesn’t organize, we could see downpours and localized flooding in the Eastern and Central Florida Panhandle.”
Gulf waters are unusually warm at about 2 to 4 degrees above normal, which is one ingredient needed to fuel development. Another ingredient is spin, which is often provided by a tropical wave cartwheeling in the tropical Atlantic after an African birth.
DaSilva said the impetus for formation in the Gulf over the next week would not be from a traditional tropical wave, and whatever twirl may pop up, could be moving too fast to become more than a rain maker.
“There are a couple Google DeepMind members showing something develop, but there are less today than yesterday,” DaSilva said. “If we get that area of spin, it has to sit there over warm waters a day or two or three.”
During strong El Niño seasons — and this year is expected to be historically strong — the subtropics can be a more fertile breeding ground for storms than the main development region.
The subtropics begin near the Tropic of Cancer and include all of Florida and the Gulf Coast.
While the main development region is known for its large and long-lived Cabo Verde hurricanes that trek ominously west, such as 2017’s Irma, the subtropics have produced similar goliaths.
Those include hurricanes Katrina (2005), Joaquin (2015), and Ginger (1971). Rita (2005), Dennis (1999), Nicole (2016) and 2024’s Milton formed in the subtropics or just on the dividing line with the tropics.
Hurricane activity in July is typically low
Michael Lowry, lead hurricane forecaster for WPLG in Miami, said the subtropics are also protected from the storm-shredding wind shear produced by El Niño across much of the Atlantic basin.
On Tuesday, he noted that it’s been 26 days since there has been an active system anywhere in the Gulf, Caribbean or wider Atlantic.
“July is often a quiet month so that alone isn’t terribly unusual,” he said in his Eye on the Tropics blog. “Still, it’s been an unusually slow start — the least active start to a hurricane season since 2009.”
Lowry also pointed to AI weather models, including the popular Euro’s AI version for showing an uptick in activity over the northeastern Gulf, which he said, “garnered the typical frenzy among some social media circles.”
The Euro AI model has since backed off its initially bullish forecasts, Lowry said.
The average date for the second named storm during hurricane season is July 17, so even if something did form, it would be normal for this time of year.
“So far, there is nothing weird or unusual about what’s going on here,” Norcross said. “It is a very normal June / July weather pattern.”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Florida’s hot Gulf waters are ripe for a hurricane but is that enough?
Reporting by Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
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By Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
