It’s the hope that kills you — or so said TV soccer legend Ted Lasso.
Heading into Tuesday’s primary, there remains a lot of hope among Republican gubernatorial candidates. This despite pollsters long ago saying the race had long been wrapped up for U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and his massive war chest.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former state House Speaker Paul Renner, and conservative firebrand James Fishback are aiming to pull off arguably the greatest political upset in Florida since Republican Claude Kirk took the governor’s mansion in 1966.
How important is this primary?
A Democrat hasn’t won the gubernatorial seat since 1994, when Lawton Chiles again showed how shoe-leather politics can win races. The winner in November will likely face David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat, running as a centrist and hoping to capitalize on anti-incumbent, anti-President Trump sentiment among the electorate. Trump has endorsed Donalds.
Donalds and Jolly aren’t wasting any time attacking each.
The state Democratic Party in social media posts called Donalds “a career politician who swindles taxpayers and has a record of fraud and drug-dealing” — an indication of how nasty the upcoming general election race may be. The Donalds campaign has also started running ads targeting Jolly for supporting LGBTQ issues and Fox News has tried to paint him as a Democratic socialist.
Despite an adorned frontrunner, there has been plenty of drama in this primary. The state GOP set the bar so high that no other candidate but Donalds could qualify for a debate. Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized the lack of debates and has refused to make an official endorsement, though he came close with Renner. The two-term governor’s administration also has ties to Fishback, who critics say uses racist dog whistles and promotes antisemitism.
Donalds is trying to become Florida’s first Black governor.
Can a GOP candidate upset Byron Donalds in gubernatorial primary?
Now back to that hope.
Businessman James Fishback, 31, is still making noise in the stretch run, racking up 50 stops in four days. “We are going to win,” he said.
This summer, Fishback showed up at a Donalds’ appearance and called him “a slave” through a megaphone while his supporters mobbed the frontrunner. “We made history by being the first campaign in Florida history to host town halls in all 67 counties,” he said.
Fishback urged supporters of Collins and Renner to get behind his campaign during the weekend. He appeared at a packed Stuart diner at 1:15 a.m. Reflecting his bro-centric campaign, only one woman appeared in the video posted by a supporter on the social media site X.
Renner’s campaign has been hustling for votes on X, responding to individuals directly. “If you love the Florida you’ve lived in under Gov. DeSantis, you’ll love me,” Renner told one woman who asked which Republican to vote for.
On Friday, Renner entered the race attacking Donalds, casting himself as the true heir of the DeSantis legacy. DeSantis said in early August he thought Renner would make a good governor.
“Governor DeSantis made the contrast clear: Byron Donalds wasn’t part of the victories that made Florida the Free State. I was,” Renner said in a social media ad.
Collins is also trying to paint himself as the best candidate to continue DeSantis’ agenda. He emphasized his military service as a Green Beret and his current role as lieutenant governor throughout the campaign. “I don’t have to talk about leading the state of Florida, I am already,” he told WKMG News 6 in Orlando.
The lieutenant governor won the straw poll in Polk County last week. “Florida voters have spoken and made clear that Jay Collins is their choice to carry on Governor DeSantis’ legacy and lead Florida forward,” he said.
Byron Donalds already moving past GOP primary with massive war chest
Donalds has been a fundraising juggernaut, with a $90-plus million war chest, funding a $20 million statewide television and digital ad buy. Collins and Renner have raised $6 million and Renner $3.2 million, respectively.
As a result, Donalds has acted like his primary opponents don’t even exist. He also has tried to align himself with DeSantis, who has a 56% approval rating. The Naples Republicans said he would remove local elected officials from office if they didn’t dedicate police officers to immigration enforcement and he would remove state attorneys he found too progressive.
Donalds has received campaign donations from co-founders of OpenAI and Plantir, as well as Elon Musk. He has tried to walk a fine line on data centers, knowing the visceral opposition among the populace, saying data center developers should self-fund their power and water infrastructure rather than placing moratoriums on construction.
“The next wave of technology and innovation shouldn’t come at the expense of hardworking Americans,” he said.
Donalds has also aligned himself with President Donald Trump, who has historically low approval ratings but still pulls tremendous weight with GOP MAGA republicans. “I know Byron well, have seen what he tests at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” Trump posted on social media.
Donalds has challenged Jolly to three debates.
Jolly, the Democrat, is ready for the upcoming fight, telling his supporters that if the general election were held today he would win. Jolly has said he is not afraid of Donald’s big-name donors.
“Nine out of 10 times the person with the most money can win. This is a cycle where the world’s upside down,” he said. “This may be a cycle where the more you get to know the Republican candidate, the less you want to support him because of all the headwinds that we’re currently facing.”
John Pacenti is the Government Impact Reporter for The USA TODAY NETWORK-FLORIDA. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: After much drama, GOP faithful chooses their gubernatorial candidate
Reporting by John Pacenti, USA TODAY NETWORK Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By John Pacenti, USA TODAY NETWORK Florida | USA TODAY Network
