President Donald Trump has called the affordability crisis a hoax, but the anointed candidates for Florida governor are putting the issue center stage.
The question remains which candidate will own the issue by Election Day.
Money, or the lack thereof, will be central to the race between Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly — for the candidates and the voters. Either way, Floridians will have a new governor for the first time in eight years as the Gov. Ron DeSantis era of culture war populism comes to a close.
“I think both of them better be stuck on affordability as the number one, two and three issues. It’s where people’s minds really are right now,” said Sean Freeder, a political scientist and pollster at the University of North Florida.
Sure, Republicans are still making noise for the Aug. 18 primary. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former Speaker of the Florida House Paul Renner and James Fishback keep taking potshots — sometimes at each other rather than Donalds.
But Freeder didn’t even ask voters in his Public Opinion Research Lab poll released Monday, July 20 about the other candidates. Donalds leads Jolly by 5%. The survey of 848 likely Florida midterm voters had a margin of error of 3.8%. Republicans made up 46% of the sample.
When asked about affordability, voter concern was widespread: 23% indicating inflation, 21% each for housing costs and property taxes, 20% saying property insurance, and 10% low wages.
How much is the spending difference in the Florida governor’s race?
Donalds, aiming to be Florida’s first Black governor, has amassed a war chest of $95 million. He felt no need to debate the other candidate.
Jolly, by comparison, has raised $6 million and is pleading with Democratic national PACs (political action committees) for help. His opponent, Mayor Jerry Demings, left the primary for health reasons.
His party is looking to ride the anti-incumbent, anti-Trump climate for the midterms after Democrats notched some big wins in state special elections.
“Nine out of 10 times the person with the most money can win. This is a cycle where the world’s upside down,” Jolly said. “This may be a cycle where the more you get to know the Republican candidate, the less you want to support him because of all the headwinds that we’re currently facing.”
Yet, just two years ago, Florida Democrats failed at the modest goal of ending the Republicans’ supermajority. They could fall back into irrational exuberance only to have a spectacular crash come Nov. 3.
The PORL poll may throw some cold water on any enthusiasm. Not only is Jolly behind, but the survey found incumbent U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody comfortably ahead of potential opponents State Rep. Angie Nixon and retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman.
Jolly hopes that a competitive gubernatorial race will attract money from Democratic national PACs and outside donations.
“The opportunity to restructure national politics through this race is so significant that national Democrats need to wake up and come into Florida because this is the best opportunity we’ve had in 30 years,” he said.
Susan MacManus, retired University of South Florida professor and political analyst, agreed Donalds’ cash advantage could backfire. Certainly, Jolly is counting on it, painting the Republican as beholden to special interests.
“There’s an old saying that in bad times, when people are struggling financially, it can not be the greatest thing to have the most money,” MacManus said.
How long has Florida’s Republican party been in power?
So Donalds is staking out his territory against Jolly, trying to take the Democrat’s top issue and make it his own. His PAC’s $20 million statewide ad buy focuses on affordability.
Donalds has received Trump’s and other key GOP endorsements. Only DeSantis, who has been critical of Donalds, has yet to endorse him.
“Byron Donalds is laser-focused on making Florida more affordable,” Donalds campaign spokesperson Gates McGavick said. “Byron is fighting to lower prescription prices, cut taxes and insurance rates, and drive down housing costs for Floridians.”
The GOP has occupied the governor’s mansion since 1998 and higher taxes, insurance costs, and the price of housing have become unfeasible for many Floridians.
“It’s one thing to identify the problem; it’s another to have a solution,” Jolly said.
Donalds did not make himself available for an interview but appears more than ready to also employ the playbook that the GOP used so effectively in the 2024 cycle.
“Liberal David Jolly is carrying the banner for a Democrat party that stands for socialism, higher taxes, and making Florida so expensive that the Florida Dream is out of reach,” McGavick said.
Painting Jolly as a socialist may be difficult. He used to be a Republican as a U.S. representative, representing District 13 in Pinellas County, serving about 1½ terms from 2014 to 2017.
McManus said he thinks Jolly — a never-Trumper — could be vulnerable on the party-switching issue, calling it a “big question” for the Democrat that could go to his credibility with voters.
And sure enough Evan Power, Florida’s GOP chair, posted on X on July 20: “David Jolly trying to claim someone explaining their position is a clean up is amusing for someone who has flipped on every position he’s ever had.”
How big is the Republican voter advantage in Florida?
Besides Donalds lapping Jolly on campaign cash, Republicans also have a 1.5-million-voter advantage in voter registration that has only grown since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“It keeps getting worse for Democrats,” MacManus said. “Are they going to get a large number of NPAs (non-party affiliation) and minor party people to turn out? The registration of younger voters is pretty split in Florida.”
The other main issue emerging is data centers. “People in droves dislike AI data centers, so I think they can score some points on that,” Freeder said.
PORL found 28% of registered voters polled said they would support building an AI data center in their area.
Donalds has had to dial back on his support for the centers. “In my Florida, if you don’t protect our pocketbooks and our people, you won’t build data centers. Period,” Donalds states in a campaign ad.
“He’s lying,” said Jolly, who has proposed a moratorium. “He still took money the next week from data center interests. They are still funding him. They own him.”
It remains to be seen if Amendment 3, property tax reform, will play a central role in the campaign and is supported by Donalds and who says he is ready to implemented if it is approved. “If it fails, he will find solutions to deliver tax relief that makes Florida more affordable,” McGavick said.
The amendment would raise the homestead exemption to $250,000 in two years. Many municipalities say the measure would cause them to cut essential services and programs. Jolly has said he supports property tax reform, but not taking a sledgehammer to municipal budgets to do it.
Freeder says it all one stew for voters. “So property tax is different from property insurance, which is different from wages, inflation, etc. What Floridians are concerned with is inflation.”
While most Florida politicos are certain Donalds will win, Democratic activist Fergie Reid Jr. isn’t ready to anoint him just yet.
“Florida Republican power brokers would like to paint the Donalds nomination as a fait accompli and they are working overtime to make it seem inevitable,” said Reid, whose Virginia-based 90-for-90 along with Margie Stein’s Naples-based Blue-Florida.com’s Project 140 sought to field as many Democrats in the Sunshine State contests as possible.
“It is not a done deal yet. Donalds still has to defeat two of Florida’s well-known power brokers, Renner and Collins, in a primary,” he said.
“Neither of these candidates should be taken lightly by the Donalds team. We’ll see what happens in the next few weeks.”
John Pacenti is the Government Impact Reporter for The USA TODAY NETWORK-FLORIDA. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Affordability is heart of Florida’s upcoming primary governor’s race
Reporting by John Pacenti, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By John Pacenti, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
