ORLANDO — UCF has found its footing in the Big 12 Conference in just about every sport except for the big one.
Its men’s basketball program ended a seven-year NCAA Tournament drought this past March, and its baseball program qualified for the second time in three years while producing a top-70 MLB draft pick. The Knights’ softball team took it a step further, ousting Florida State and advancing to super regionals for the second time in school history.
But success on the gridiron has largely eluded UCF over the last three years. The Knights have not participated in a bowl game since 2023, and they have posted a woeful 7-20 record against conference opposition.
Will that trend continue for yet another fall, or can Scott Frost catch lightning in a bottle again in his second season?
Here are three reasons to believe in the Knights in 2026 and three reasons to doubt them.
3 reasons for optimism about UCF football in 2026
1. UCF has a College Football Playoff-caliber quarterback
It stands to reason that UCF upgraded the quarterback position by signing Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III, who led James Madison to its first berth in the College Football Playoff.
Barnett, a 5-foot-11, 210-pound redshirt senior from Whitsett, N.C., accounted for 3,395 yards of offense and 38 touchdowns for the Dukes last fall. James Madison went 21-6 with Barnett behind center since 2024.
Four players — Cam Fancher, Tayven Jackson, Jacurri Brown and Davi Belfort — combined to throw 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, averaging 220.8 passing yards per game at a 62% completion rate. Assuming he stays healthy, Barnett should easily clear those bars; how much he elevates the squad will ultimately determine if the Knights can challenge the top half of the Big 12.
“My expectations of myself are so much greater than anyone could say,” Barnett said. “Naturally, there’s a chip with that. I don’t think I look for external reasons for motivation; the internal reasons and the belief that Coach Frost has put on me to be a leader of this team and what they guys expect in a quarterback, taking care of the ball like we talked about in the QB room, and the tribe and family around me that believe in me.”
2. UCF’s roster has returning production, improved depth
Frost built most of his 2025 squad from scratch after arriving the previous December, holding onto a handful of impactful high school recruits and diving deep into the transfer portal. The overall scouting efforts were solid, and UCF can reap the benefits going forward by returning 61% of its overall production ahead of training camp, according to ESPN.
That number does not factor in the potential return of All-Big 12 third-team linebacker Cole Kozlowski, who rejoined the team after an injunction in Colorado granted 2022 high school graduates a fifth year of eligibility. The NCAA is expected to appeal the ruling.
Unless there is an overturn, Kozlowski will suit up for a second season in Orlando. He was added to the team’s roster ahead of its Aug. 10 practice and will again wear the No. 43 jersey. Long snapper Kyle Hicks is now No. 44.
“I don’t know his official status,” Frost said. “And the rules are changing faster than Mario Bros. when you’re going through warp zones. It looks like a different world every week.
“I know he was cleared to be back. He’s enrolled in classes. We’re kind of waiting on a final decision, whenever and however that comes that he is eligible to play. But we had spots on the roster, and I think it was worth a shot to bring him back in the hopes that everything goes his way. He was a no-brainer to bring back because of the type of kid that he is. Obviously, he had a really good year for us last year. And if he’s able to play, he adds to the team. He’s wonderful to have in the building.”
Four starters return in the UCF secondary, as does leading tackler and ascending defensive captain Lewis Carter. Tight end Dylan Wade, slot receiver Duane Thomas Jr. and sophomore deep threat Waden Charles provide Barnett a quality group of returning targets.
Knights coaches are excited about a number of newcomers as well, including running back Duke Watson (Louisville), defensive tackle Thomas Collins (Oregon State), wide receiver Josh Derry (Monmouth) and offensive tackle Henry Tabansi (Buffalo).
3. UCF’s schedule is more forgiving on paper
USA TODAY’s Jordan Mendoza ranked UCF’s schedule as the seventh-easiest among Power Four programs entering the 2026 season, considering the Knights face just two preseason top-25 opponents — Houston and BYU in October.
Neither Bethune-Cookman nor Georgia State project to put up much of a fight against the Knights next month, but they have a tricky trip to Pittsburgh, led by talented sophomore quarterback Mason Heintschel.
UCF has two Friday night home games in the second half of the campaign — Baylor the night before Halloween and Iowa State six days prior to Thanksgiving. That should amplify the Bounce House atmosphere, regardless of the team’s record.
The Knights have dropped nine in a row on the road, including an 0-5 mark in Frost’s return campaign. Three of this year’s four conference trips are against bottom-half Big 12 opposition — Oklahoma State, Kansas and Colorado.
It’s not easy, per se, but it does appear forgiving.
3 reasons for pessimism about UCF football in 2026
1. UCF needs to replace 4 starters on reshuffled O-line
UCF aggressively addressed its deficiencies along the offensive line in the transfer portal, signing Brady Wayburn, Cooper Terpstra, Tyler Gibson and Henry Tabansi early in January. However, with less than three weeks remaining until the season opener, it appears the Knights are shuffling the deck in search of their best quintet.
Connor Meadows is taking reps at center, and 6-foot-8, 305-pound senior Owen Spell might have the edge at right guard. Tabansi and lone returning starter Preston Cushman are the likely starting bookends, with Wayburn and Terpstra among the options at left guard.
Laparka Langston impressed before sustaining a minor hamstring injury in the summer, Frost said.
“They’re playing together really well,” Frost said. “I think we’re more athletic than we have been. The things we’re asking them to do, that really helps us.
“We’ll see how it shakes out, but we have some options there and some competition there as well.”
Competition this time of year is not a bad thing, but it took far too long for UCF to settle on its group of starters in 2025. The Knights rotated pairs of guards for the better part of the opening month, none of whom are still on the roster.
In total, the Knights ranked 105th out of 136 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades (54), allowed 20 sacks and committed the bulk of the team’s 40 pre-snap penalties, all points of emphasis for first-year offensive line coach AJ Blazek.
2. Lack of pass rush could expose talented secondary
Few college programs can withstand the departures of both starting pass-rushers, especially when one is a first-round NFL draft pick — Malachi Lawrence, taken 23rd overall by the Dallas Cowboys. Nyjalik Kelly started all but one game the past two seasons, earning a contract with the Green Bay Packers as an undrafted free agent.
The Knights must develop adequate replacements in Alex Grinch’s base 4-2-5 scheme in order to fully take advantage of their experienced back-seven.
Isaiah Nixon should get his shot to live up to his four-star pedigree after playing a career-high 289 defensive snaps a season ago. Sincere Edwards, who missed the final six games last year with a Lisfranc foot fracture, has participated fully in preseason camp.
Ken Talley, Aymeric Koumba, Bruno Dall and LA Jessie Harrold round out the depth chart as things stand. UCF awaits an eligibility ruling on Kansas transfer Dean Miller, who had six sacks for the Jayhawks in 2024 when Knights edge rushers coach Mike Dawson was on staff as a defensive analyst.
“I don’t waste a lot of time thinking about it until it happens,” Frost said when asked about Miller’s status. “I can’t follow the bouncing ball enough to know how some of those things are going to go. I’ll just say again that if we have an opportunity to add anybody that can give us an upgrade or depth or anything to make our team better that we intentionally kept a few spots open.”
3. UCF is still playing catch-up in NIL/rev-share landscape
Expect this to be a recurring reason for pessimism until there is an overhaul to the current financial structure of college football, either through federal legislation or collective bargaining.
UCF enters its second year as a full-share member of the Big 12, but it will still operate on a roster budget dwarfed by other conference members — most egregiously defending champion Texas Tech — and the upper tiers of the SEC and Big Ten.
On the plus side, the Knights were able to sign an accomplished quarterback and largely retain their most valuable players — Wade, Carter, Cushman, Jayden Bellamy, Horace Lockett and so on. Starting defensive tackle John Walker, who transferred to Ohio State, is perhaps the one significant loss via the portal.
But prices continue to skyrocket on premium talent, both at the high school level and in the transfer portal. Miami reportedly spent the most on a quarterback, shelling out $6.5 million to pry Darian Mensah out of a multi-year agreement at Duke. After hiring Lane Kiffin, LSU handed Colorado’s All-Big 12 tackle Jordan Seaton $4 million to protect Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt, set to earn a cool $4.5 million this fall.
It’s not an excuse, but it is an inequitable system — one that almost certainly lowers UCF’s ceiling on an annual basis. But Indiana found a recipe for unlikely success en route to an undefeated national championship run, so there is always a little bit of hope.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: 3 reasons UCF football can win big in 2026 — and 3 reasons it can’t
Reporting by Chris Boyle, Daytona Beach News-Journal / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Chris Boyle, Daytona Beach News-Journal | USA TODAY Network
