Activity in the tropics has certainly picked up, with the National Hurricane Center keeping an eye on three disturbances in the Atlantic.
Two of them, Invests 92L and 94L, are expected to become tropical depressions.
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Cristobal, which became the season’s first-named tropical storm Aug. 12, has already weakened, becoming a tropical depression this morning and a post-tropical cyclone shortly before noon Aug. 13. The National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on Cristobal at 11 a.m.
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If maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, Invest 92L could become Tropical Storm Dolly, assuming Invest 94L doesn’t reach that status first.
Located east of 92L is Invest 94L, which also is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression in the coming days.
While this season is expected to see below-normal activity due to the presence of a strong El Niño, forecasters have been warning that Florida residents should always be prepared.
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Here’s what you should know based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 13.
Invest 92L likely to become tropical depression in next day or two
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center will experiment with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
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Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
This system will likely become a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, by late Friday, the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop.
Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development.
Invest 92L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Invest 94L likely to become tropical depression by this weekend
A tropical wave south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands could become a tropical depression late this week or this weekend.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Where is Tropical Storm Cristobal?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center will experiment with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
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As expected, Cristobal is weakening, becoming a tropical depression early Aug. 13.
At 5 a.m. ET, the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 38.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to continue, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate later today.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Cristobal
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
It’s too early to determine what, if any, impacts from any of the tropical waves in the Atlantic could be felt in Florida, the National Weather Service cautioned residents to monitor the tropics and to stay prepared.
“A potential tropical storm near the islands (Lesser Antilles) in mid-August is a classic set-up for something to watch in the continental U.S., but my concerns for Florida and beyond are nevertheless very, very low in this case,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
If Invest 92L were to strengthen, “the most likely outcome is that it continues westward into the Caribbean, where wind shear and dry air will rip it to shreds early next week.
“Alternatively, if the storm was to track a little more northwestward, it could get picked up by a dip in the jet stream in the west-central Atlantic and turn out to sea.
“Those are the main options as well for a second tropical wave closer to Africa — Invest 94L — that also has a chance of development this week, though odds tilt more toward a northward, open ocean track with that one if it organizes.
“I don’t see a realistic scenario in which either wave slips towards the U.S. as a coherent system.”
Could tropical waves impact Florida?
“As of Thursday morning, the high risk of development we have outlooked in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic (Invest 92L) continues to track westward towards the Lesser Antilles,” said Nick Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist via email Aug. 13.
“This tropical wave continues to struggle with dry air and is heading into an area of increasingly hostile wind shear later today.
“Due to these factors, it is seeming increasingly likely that any development, should it occur, would be a low-end tropical depression or tropical storm tracking into the Lesser Antilles. Once this wave crosses the Lesser Antilles, it is expected to dissipate due to very strong wind shear which will rip the wave or storm apart.
“With all this said, we no longer believe there is any risk of impacts to Florida or the Southeast coast associated with this wave.”
National Hurricane Center tracking 3 disturbances in Atlantic basin
Besides Tropical Depression Cristobal and Invest 92L, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking Invest 94L.
Invest 94L: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
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What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 13, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tcpalm.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: 2 tropical depressions possible as storm season ramps up. Florida impacts
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Treasure Coast Newspapers
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By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
