Many Big Ten teams continued their run at a title, but there was still room for a lot of surprise this round of the Sweet 16. Iowa’s magical run is not ready to conclude just yet, and top teams in the Big Ten win convincingly over tough opponents.
Here are how my predictions for the NCAA Tournament in the sweet 16 on Thursday and Friday for Big Ten teams played out:
To start with here were my predictions from Thursday:
No. 2 Purdue over No. 11 Texas
“Texas has been fighting its way until this point, even knocking off BYU, which fields one of the best stars in the game in AJ Dybantsa. Purdue is well balanced, their offense is a well-oiled machine, and they have a top 15 defense. They are not the most exciting team, but they have won 6 straight, and they are a tough team to beat. Texas should put up a good fight, but I think Purdue takes care of business once again.”
It took everything out of Purude to pull off this win, but off the backs of their seniors, they were able to. Trey Kaufman-Renn made a tip-in layup to win the game with seconds left, and he and the other seniors from Purdue were not ready for their last game just yet.
No. 4 Nebraska over No. 9 Iowa
“Both teams got a win in the two games they matched up in the regular season. Both teams are very similar in the ways they attack teams, making for a game that will go down to the wire. Both teams heavily rely on their 3-point shooting, and I think Nebraska will be the team that has the better night. I believe the Cornhuskers’ magic continues, and Pryce Sandfort has a hot shooting day.”
Iowa’s magical Cinderella run still had enough to pull off another upset. The Hawkeyes did not have a lead at any point in the game until the final minutes, but once again they iced their opponent out in the clutch. The better 3-point shooting team prevailed.
No. 3 Illinois over No. 2 Houston
“Both teams come into this game getting favorable matchups and getting their first real test in this game. Illinois has to go to Houston and play in a hostile environment. Their toughness will be tested in this game, but they have the depth and the talent needed to overcome this matchup. Each game, there has been a different guy who steps up, but Keaton Wagler needs to show out and be the best player on the court, along with the rest of the guys being productive. Houston will not hand them this game; the Fighting Illini will need to take it, and I think they will because they are the more talented team.”
Illinois is looking as dangerous as they have all season long. Their offense had no issues against an elite defensive team. This is not only a good offensive team, but this is a team in whih that can beat their opponents at their own game.
Predictions for top performers for Thursday
“I am expecting a big game from Braden Smith, one in which he has double-digit assists, and he can’t miss from beyond the arc. Texas is a tougher foe, and they will keep the game close. I want to see Smith have a dagger shot or two and him be the most aggressive player for the Boilermakers. He has already proved what he can do for his teammates, but I think in a game like this, it is an opportunity for him to be the best scorer on the court. I think he will put up more than points and about 12 assists.
Keaton Wagler has been a serviceable piece for the Fighting Illini in the last stretch of games. He is pretty far removed from his last truly dominant game. His not being fully healthy obviously plays a big part in that, but in March Madness, you need your stars to be stars. Against a team like Houston, Wagler has to be the best player on the floor. I am expecting a big game from Wagler, one in which he has a game-high 25 points. If Illinois wins, I think it will be on his back.”
Braden Smith was not the best scorer for the Boilermakers as I expected, but he still facilitated a great offensive game for Purdue, and his impact was evident in other areas. Smith had 16 points, 5 assists, and 2 steals. Purdue does not need to play super flashy; they can win games the old school way, and this was another example of that.
Keaton was not spectacular for his team, but he still was good enough to help Illinois advance. Wagler instead of 25 points, he had 13 points, but an impactful 12 rebounds and 2 blocks. His impact went deeper than his scoring input as it was a very gritty defensive win.
Here were my predictions for the games on Friday:
No. 1 Michigan over No. 4 Alabama
“Both offenses are great, and that is why this matchup has a very high predicted total. Only one team has a great defense, and that is Michigan. That will ultimately be the difference in this game; even if this one ends up being a high-scoring affair, the team that can get the timely stops will win. I think Michigan will be able to stun the Crimson Tide late in this game, and both Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. will make the shots down the stretch to win. A game like this bodes well for Michigan, and I think the Wolverines will rise to the occasion.”
Michigan’s defense stole this game, but they also had a great offensive outing to complement their defensive play. They completely smothered Alabama in the second half, and they dominated off the bench with 33 points. Just another showing of how good the Wolverines are.
No. 3 Michigan State over No. 2 UConn
“Michigan State has a lot of size to match up with the dominant force that Tarris Reed Jr. is, and I think they will be able to control him. If Michigan State can get Reed Jr. in foul trouble, that will bode well for their chances to win. Jeremy Fears Jr. will be able to help control the pace and tempo of this game in favor of the Spartans. This game will be a close and physical battle that plays right in the hands of the Spartans. I think Tom Izzo and the Spartans will pull off the victory.”
Michigan takes UConn to the brink of an upset, but ultimately, in the end, the Huskies made enough plays to combat the Spartans’ late crunch time surge. Tarris Reed Jr. shone in this game with 20 points total, and the game-winning free throws weren’t his usual dominant game, but he ensured the Huskies were able to move on.
Predictions for top performers for Sunday
“Coen Carr was his usual high-flying self in the last victory for the Spartans, where he put up 21 points and 10 rebounds. I see that, similar to his outing from him vs UConn, the Spartans will need someone to ignite them with energy and momentum, which is usually what Coen Carr is able to do. The Huskies’ offense will have their hands full vs the Spartans’ size, but I think the Spartans’ stars on the other end will be able to thrive. I expect Coen Carr to be special late in the game, too, with a couple of big-time baskets to win this game.
Yaxel Lendeborg will have to be at his best once again as the Wolverines face their toughest competition yet. I am expecting that to be the case, and I think he will have himself a day vs the Crimson Tide’s defense, which struggles against great offenses. The best example of that is them losing to Florida 100-77. Yaxel Lendeborg showed what he is capable of when he is being an aggressor. I expect another 20-point outing and him to have 10 rebounds to go along with it.”
It was more of a spread-out effort by the Michigan State Spartans, as Coen Carr was only able to muster up 13 points in the loss against UConn. He struggled from beyond the arc, being 0-3 in the game. Carr was able to make a couple of plays, but he fell short of the star production I expected.
The Crimson Tide were no match for the Michigan Wolverines, and it was for many more reasons than just 1 but one of those reasons was Yaxel Lendeborg. Lendeborg was great offensively, but he was so impactful in many other aspects. Lendeborg finished with 23 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals. He is cementing himself as one of the best players left in the tournament.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Revisiting Micah’s predictions for Big Ten basketball in Sweet 16
Reporting by Micah Huff, Trojans Wire / Trojans Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
