It took comeback wins by both the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears in the wild-card round of the playoffs, but the two of them advanced to the divisional round and each looks like a dangerous Super Bowl contender.
They’ll square off at Soldier Field on Sunday with a spot in the NFC title game on the line, their first postseason meeting since the 1985 season. To the surprise of absolutely no one, it’s going to be “bitterly cold” in Chicago this weekend so both teams are in for some challenging conditions.
Following the Rams’ and Bears’ wins on Saturday, there were only two possible opponents for L.A. in the second round. And thanks to the 49ers’ upset of the Eagles on Sunday, the Rams got what seems to be the more favorable matchup with Chicago.
They’re 4.5-point favorites over the Bears, whereas they would’ve been 1.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks had the Eagles won and sent the Rams to Seattle. And in terms of how the Rams match up against each team, they’re better suited to beat Chicago than Seattle.
Rams’ receivers will test Bears’ secondary
The Bears lead the NFL with 23 interceptions this season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of their pass defense. Chicago has also allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes (32) and 7.6 yards per attempt, which is the seventh-most in football.
The Bears are 24th in opponent success rate against the pass and 20th in dropback EPA allowed, which shows just how badly their pass defense has struggled. If Matthew Stafford can avoid interceptions, the passing attack could be in for a big day.
These are two of the best run games in football
Both of these teams like to run the ball, and they do so successfully. The Rams’ rush EPA is fourth-best in the NFL and the Bears are close behind at No. 6, with Pro Football Focus also grading each run game in the top five of the NFL; Bears rank fourth (89.5) and Rams are fifth (89.3).
The Rams’ run defense has been good for the most part, and it slowed down the Panthers’ rushing attack on Saturday, but the Bears have a two-headed monster with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai that could test Los Angeles’ front seven and tackling on the back end.
Bears could exploit Rams’ biggest defensive weakness
Arguably the biggest concern for the Rams in this matchup is their secondary against the Bears’ pass catchers. The Rams just allowed 264 yards passing to Bryce Young, led by a 134-yard outing by Jalen Coker and 81 yards by Tetairoa McMillan.
Now they’ll face a Bears offense that features Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. That’s as talented and deep a receiving corps as the Rams will face, so all of their defensive backs will be challenged in coverage.
Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards against the Packers on Saturday night, with Loveland leading the way by catching eight passes for 137 yards. The Bears had five players with at least 38 yards receiving, so Williams spread the ball around well.
Bears’ pass rush is heating up
Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t been terribly effective all year but they seem to have found something in the last two weeks. They had 23 pressures in the finale against the Lions and 21 on Saturday against the Packers after having just 24 total pressures in Weeks 16 and 17 combined.
Montez Sweat had seven pressures against the Packers and landed three hits on Jordan Love. The Rams’ offensive line is better than Green Bay’s and Warren McClendon Jr. is more than capable of slowing down Sweat on the right side of the line.
Rams must avoid fourth-quarter collapse
If you’ve paid any attention to the Rams, you know they’re susceptible to late-game collapses. They blew a 19-point second-half lead to the Eagles in Week 3, crumbled against the 49ers in Week 5 with a late fumble and failed fourth-down conversion in overtime, and then blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead against the Seahawks in Week 16.
The bad news is the Bears have a knack for coming back to win. On Saturday night, the Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to erase a 21-6 deficit to the Packers, winning 31-27. Williams had an NFL-high six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season and had another on Saturday against the Packers, showing he has a flair for the dramatics.
The Rams better have a 30-point cushion in the fourth quarter because no lead has been too big for Chicago this season. Or, maybe the Rams would be better off coming from behind to beat the Bears.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Initial thoughts on Rams-Bears: LA has an edge, but some causes for concern
Reporting by Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire / Rams Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
