(This story was updated with new information and to correct a factual error.)
Come 2026, many Coachella Valley residents will find themselves in new congressional districts after voters approved Proposition 50.
Results are still being tallied and won’t be official for weeks as late-arriving mail ballots come in. But the measure was on track to pass comfortably, with “yes” receiving almost 64% of the vote as of early Wednesday and more than 8 million votes counted.
The constitutional amendment, officially titled the Election Rigging Response Act, means that California will use new congressional district maps that are widely expected to increase the number of Democrats the state sends to the U.S. House of Representatives during the next three voting cycles if current geographic voting trends hold.
The proposition was pitched by Gavin Newsom and numerous other California Democrats as a necessary response to the adoption of new maps in Texas that are expected to result in up to five more Republicans being elected there.
However, it was criticized by California Republicans and others who said the state should not abandon the maps created in 2020 by the state’s voter-created independent redistricting commission. Under the terms of the proposition, California will return to having the commission draw maps following the 2030 census.
Prop 50 could have national ramifications, potentially determining which party controls the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections. It will also have a big impact on voters in the Coachella Valley, who will either find themselves in a new district entirely or else one that looks quite different.
How does Prop 50 change Coachella Valley districts?
The most substantial changes will be for residents of Palm Springs and Indian Wells, which will become two northeastern flanks of the new 48th Congressional District.
The expansive new district will span two counties and multiple metropolitan areas, with most of its population anchored in suburban and exurban areas on its west end.
Those include all or part of the San Diego suburbs of San Marcos, Vista and Escondido and a swath of the Inland Empire centered on California highways 74 and 79 that includes Hemet, Homeland, Winchester, French Valley and Temecula. Much of the district will also consist of more sparsely-populated desert and mountain areas, including the communities of Idyllwild, Borrego Springs and Anza.
The rest of the Coachella Valley will either join or stay in the 25th Congressional District. For residents of Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Thousand Palms, Bermuda Dunes, Indio and Coachella, as well as unincorporated areas of east valley, this will be no change. Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage and La Quinta, meanwhile, will be joining the district, as will Twentynine Palms to the north.
The district will also keep the San Gorgonio Pass communities, including Beaumont, Banning and San Jacinto to the south, but is losing Hemet.
How to see my new district
Anyone can type in their address into the interactive map at aelc.assembly.ca.gov/proposed-congressional-map to see which district they will now reside in.
Who will represent the Coachella Valley?
The first elections under the new map will take place in November 2026. Until the winners of that election are sworn in, the current representatives elected under the old district maps will remain in place. That’s Democrat Raul Ruiz in District 25 and Republican Ken Calvert in District 41.
But things will look different going forward. The decision to go to the voters with Proposition 50 threw a wrench into the plans of both announced candidates and those mulling a run for the Coachella Valley’s House seats by creating uncertainty about what the maps will look like in 2026.
Early Wednesday, Calvert announced he’ll run in 2026 in a new district that doesn’t include any of the Coachella Valley.
Calvert, who has represented most of the west and central valley since 2022, lives in Corona, which will be split between the new 35th and 40th districts. While the law does not require that U.S. House members live in the district they represent, Calvert, like most members of Congress, has historically done so.
The current 48th District is represented by Darrell Issa, a Republican who lives in Vista and has already filed to run for re-election.
Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz, meanwhile, will continue to reside in the 25th Congressional District, which he has represented for the past four years. Ruiz has already filed to run for reelection in the district. He has served in Congress since 2013 but previously represented what was then the 36th Congressional District.
The election tracking website, Ballotpedia, shows that several other candidates had planned to run for Congress under the old maps, but it will have to be seen if those candidates continue to run under the new ones.
For example, one of the declared candidates to run in District 25 is Republican Hemet City Councilmember Joe Males. But Hemet will be part of the 48th Congressional District.
Will a Democrat represent Palm Springs in Congress?
There is, of course, no definitive way to predict an election. And many factors can influence voters, including satisfaction (or lack thereof) with the party in power.
But if voting trends from the 2024 election are any indication, deep-blue Palm Springs could shift from being represented by a Republican in Congress to a Democrat.
A Los Angeles Times analysis of 2024 election results found that Democrats would have an expected three-point advantage in the new Congressional District 48. Meanwhile, the expected Democratic advantage in the 25th Congressional District is expected to more than double, from 2.5 points to 5.7 points.
Another analysis by Princeton University’s Gerrymandering Project based on 2024 election results found that Democrats would have an expected four-point advantage in the new 48th District and a 17-point advantage in the new 25th District.
Will Prop 50 swing the House back to Democrats?
As of Tuesday, Republicans held a six-seat majority in the US House, while two seats that had been held by Democrats and one held by a Republican were currently vacant as a result of resignations or deaths. Such a relatively narrow lead means that changes in the composition of the districts could potentially swing the house.
The Los Angeles Times analysis found that the adoption of the new maps would increase the number of Democratic-leaning house districts from 41 to 47, seemingly enough to shift the balance of power.
But California isn’t the only state to have redrawn its maps or be considering it. According to ABC News, analysts expect Republicans to pick up five seats in Texas, two in Ohio and one in both North Carolina and Missouri as a result of new maps that have been adopted in those states.
Meanwhile, several other states, including Republican-dominated Indiana and Utah and Democratic Virgina and Illinois, are either in the process of changing their maps or considering doing so in ways that could further influence the election.
Paul Albani-Burgio covers growth, development and business in the Coachella Valley. Email him at paul.albani-burgio@desertsun.com.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: How will Prop 50 passage change districts for Coachella Valley?
Reporting by Paul Albani-Burgio, Palm Springs Desert Sun / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
