Detroit — If Scott Harris and the Tigers were waiting for clarity, they got it. After teetering between contention and oblivion all season, they finally reached their tipping point by blowing a 7-0 lead to the Orioles, blowing four of their last five games, blowing saves and chances and shrinking odds.
In a way, Harris’ massive dilemma just got easier. The decision to trade Tarik Skubal is being made for him. Harris’ job also just got tougher, more dangerous, more career-defining.
No one wants to trade away a two-time Cy Young winner unless forced to do so, and Harris will be forced to do so, by record and circumstance. In his fourth year as president of baseball operations, he has built steadily but been reluctant to make trades of any great magnitude. What once seemed worthwhile — keeping Skubal for a run at a third straight playoff berth — now looks irresponsible. It collapsed fittingly, with Skubal pitching another gem only to see the Tigers’ bullpen fall apart in a 10-9, 12-inning loss to the Orioles on Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park.
Decisions aren’t based solely on one game, until you run out of games to make your case. Just when the Tigers seemed to be earning a reprieve, their bullpen imploded, and there aren’t enough days left to fix it. They play three against the woeful Athletics this weekend in Sacramento, and at 51-58, they’re only 4.5 games out of a wildcard spot. Not insurmountable, but no longer worth the risk, not with their gnawing flaws.
Harris has four days until Monday’s deadline to prove he possesses the necessary deal-making chops. We need to see it. The trade market has mostly slumbered while a mass of mediocrity in the AL sorted itself out, but the top teams — Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs — should be ready to bid and buy. All of the Tigers’ pending free agents — Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan — could be shopped, a humbling admission by a team considered a contender before injuries and the month of May hit.
There is one caveat. Yes, Harris needs to sell Skubal, but if teams sense desperation and try to fleece the Tigers, he can’t cave. It’s his job to extract maximum value for the rarest asset.
Instead of a complete selloff, there is another intriguing option: Trade Skubal but add bats and arms to fortify the still-solid rotation, led by Mize and rising star Troy Melton. Promising young Jackson Jobe also could be back. Torres and Javy Baez have returned to boost the offense, and top prospect Max Clark was just brought up from Toledo.
This should be a fascinating game of high-stakes poker. Harris has said virtually nothing, which reportedly left suitors unclear of his intentions. The Tigers have never been interested in fulfilling agent Scott Boras’ audacious quest for a $300 million-plus contract, but would they really let Skubal walk as a free agent, getting only a compensatory draft pick in return? I think that was their plan, if they believed they had a decent shot (better than 50-50) to get in the playoffs, knowing they have the pitching to win a series or more. That shot has passed.
Various national reports indicate the Tigers have set an exorbitant asking price, as they should. But will contenders ante up with prospects and Major League talent to rent a superstar for two-and-a-half months? Especially as baseball’s collective bargaining agreement is set to expire, with cost containment the owners’ overwhelming goal?
Skubal is a compelling story of power and perseverance, blossoming from the Tigers’ ninth-round pick in 2018 into the best pitcher in the game. He hired the renowned agent to play the big-business game, which is his right. But if the Tigers’ long-term option is a $300 million commitment, I can’t blame them for declining. The rift between the team and the star became obvious in February when Skubal admitted he was bothered by an unpleasant arbitration case, which he won.
Skubal also drew scrutiny for exiting last fall’s decisive ALDS Game 5 in Seattle after the sixth inning with a 2-1 lead, his pitch count at 99. Manager A.J. Hinch and Skubal explained they agreed he’d empty his tank in the sixth and let the bullpen take over. Blaming the 3-2 loss solely on that move is irrational, as the Tigers wasted tons of chances before falling in the 15th.
Perhaps buoyed by their unorthodox success winning a wildcard series two straight years, the Tigers didn’t adequately address their limitations. Oh, they spent plenty in the offseason, exclusively on aging pitchers Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen and Justin Verlander. They returned virtually the same lineup, with rookie phenom Kevin McGonigle the only major addition. They haven’t acquired a significant bat beyond Torres two years ago.
Wild inconsistencies make the Tigers hard to define and impossible to trust. Their spotty lineup ranks middle of the pack in most categories. Their starting pitching is third in the majors with a 3.48 ERA, trailing only the Dodgers and Brewers. Their bullpen ranks ninth with a 3.85 ERA, yet the meltdowns are monumental, leading to a staggering 15-36 record in games decided by two runs or fewer. They’re second in the majors with 25 blown saves, and Finnegan leads everyone with seven.
The primary constant has been Skubal, who couldn’t rescue them forever. As good as he’s been since returning from an elbow procedure — 2.61 ERA, 14 walks, 116 strikeouts — the Tigers have only won nine of his 16 starts.
After the loss to the Orioles, Skubal, 29, did some reminiscing, but not much. He recorded his 1,000th strikeout and recalled his first, as a rookie in 2020. Asked about the standing ovation as he left the Comerica Park mound Wednesday for perhaps the final time, he sounded grateful, and also like someone preparing to say good-bye.
“I just want to live in the moment,” Skubal said. “When the fans get on their feet like that and give you a pretty good ovation, it’s special. Hopefully they feel like I’ve given everything to the team, the city, because I truly have.”
Unfortunately, this feels like another sad ending. Almost all of the Tigers’ great pitchers the past 20 years — Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, David Price — left without a ring, and a bit of remorse.
It’s a painful history that Harris — and owner Chris Ilitch — must break if they’re to win the franchise’s first World Series since 1984. They’ve made strides, certainly. They had the best record in baseball for nearly half of last season, then squandered most of it.
For all the positives Harris and Hinch have brought, they’ve been slow to adjust, sticking stubbornly to their own philosophies and own players. Harris believed so fervently last year in the mix-and-match bullpen and lineup, he made embarrassingly weak moves at the deadline, adding fading arms such as Charlie Morton, Paul Sewald and Rafael Montero.
The most amazing thing the Tigers have done — overcoming .02% odds to reach the playoffs in 2024 — might also be the most deceiving. It supported their bullpen theories and convinced them they could piece together an offense with interchangeable parts. It essentially happened two years in a row, in reverse, as they blew a 14-game division lead last season.
You wonder if they’re too beholden to past (improbable) performances. A team can get paralyzed by modest success, expecting natural improvement. Harris knows how to identify young talent and loves his prospects, and he was right to protect someone like McGonigle. He has said he’s afraid of being haunted by a prospect he deals away, so he never does. The 21-year-old Clark will be the next test.
The Skubal situation is different, and this season should force Harris to adjust. If a deal somehow fell through and the Tigers felt compelled to keep their star, they’d absolutely have to fortify with bullpen arms and a bat. Half-measures are safe but usually unfulfilling, like losing in the ALDS.
We’ve seen the unlikely things Harris and his staff can do with raw, sometimes broken pieces. Now he must show what he can do with a polished piece like Skubal, in a viciously competitive trade market. Harris’ reputation — and a big chunk of the Tigers’ future — depends on it.
Bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
@bobwojnowski
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Wojo: Tigers need to trade Skubal, and the pressure is on Scott Harris
Reporting by Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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By Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
