Buffalo — For the small or middlin’ programs with the longest odds, the NCAA Tournament is mostly spirit and joy. They might think they can win a game or two, but there are no repercussions if they don’t.
For the top seeds, there is mostly angst and apprehension, a season’s success hinging on a 40-minute sweat-fest against a team from a conference with a name like the Mid-South Atlantic Athletic Coastal Conference. It’s what makes March Madness so exhilarating and exhausting.
It’s what Michigan State and Tom Izzo have faced each of their 28 consecutive appearances. Michigan feels even more pressure now, in Dusty May’s second season after an historic romp through the Big Ten. It’s what makes the next few weeks, arguably, the most nerve-wracking in this state’s Tournament history.
Both are huge favorites in Thursday’s openers against two breeds of Bison in Buffalo, which seems like a metaphorical homecourt advantage for the underdog Bisons. Michigan (31-3) is a 30.5-point favorite against the Howard Bison (24-10) and MSU (25-7) is a 16.5-point pick against the North Dakota St. Bison.
Based on their No. 1 seed, the Wolverines are projected to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2018. As the top-ranked team for much of the season, their own expectation is to win the national championship. College basketball is one of the few sports that amply rewards a team just for reaching the final round, so a Final Four appearance would be an acceptable prize, whether they accept it or not.
“Our goal was to cut down four nets,” star forward Yaxel Lendeborg said at the Big Ten tournament. “We also want to be the best Michigan team ever, and we’re getting closer and closer to that goal.”
UM got its first net for the Big Ten title. It fell short of the conference tournament title, losing to Purdue 80-72 in a game that might have left fans a little wobbly. Nets for the Final Four and national championship still hang in the balance.
Michigan State has dealt with lofty standards/expectations for much longer, and has met the loftiest only once, with its national championship in 2000. Fans know how difficult it is, yet somehow are shocked no Big Ten team has won it all in 25 years.
As the No. 3 seed in the East region, the Spartans’ odds are longer but their goals are never lower. They have eight Final Four appearances under Izzo and have traveled all sorts of paths in those runs, seeded 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 5, 7, 2. They were a two seed last year and fell one step short, losing to Auburn in the Elite Eight. An Elite Eight trip this season would be an acceptable prize, whether they accept it or not.
Michigan was a five seed last year and also lost to Auburn, in the Sweet 16. UM and MSU have mirrored each other for two years now — each with a Big Ten regular season and tournament title. Of course, that guarantees absolutely nothing, other than a nice banner and a decent seed.
Izzo knows how it works better than anyone, experiencing numerous highs and one agonizing low — a 90-81 loss as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 Middle Tennessee State in 2106. Giddy Potts etched his name in Tournament lore as the Blue Raiders hit 11 of 19 3-pointers. Long-range shooting often is the great equalizer, capable of negating size and talent mismatches.
North Dakota State has a bunch of decent 3-point shooters (36.5% as a team) and the Spartans have been vulnerable to the deep shot lately.
“I did figure out the bracket, and I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t win the national championship,” Izzo quipped Monday. “Or get beat in the first weekend.”
It’s true, although possibly not as true as in the past. In the NIL era, the power programs can pay to pile up more talent, while the mid-majors struggle to retain their best players. Cinderella is not yet an endangered species, but she’s getting there. All the No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four last season, and only one double-digit seed (No. 10 Arkansas) made it out of the first weekend.
That said, it was only three years ago that San Diego State beat No. 9 Florida Atlantic (coached by May) in the Final Four. Danger always lurks, and guard play often is the primary variable.
The Spartans will ride as Jeremy Fears Jr. rides, the type of dynamic guard that Izzo loves. If he gets the pick-and-roll game going with Coen Carr, Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler, MSU can beat anybody. (And yes, lose to anybody). If the Spartans address their defensive slippage, they should make it to the Sweet 16 and a possible collision with No. 2 Connecticut.
The Wolverines will ride as Lendeborg and point guard Elliot Cadeau ride. Their chances took a hit when they lost backup guard L.J. Cason with a knee injury, which raises the pressure on Cadeau, who shot only four-for-12 in the Big Ten tournament loss to Purdue.
“He’s incredibly important,” May said. “Overall, his basketball IQ is off the charts. His defensive energy when he’s locked in is as good as anyone. We need him to lead our team to be our best.”
UM and MSU have multiple players that can be their top scorer on any given night, a strength this time of year. Watch for the Spartans’ Kohler (39.4% on 3s) to be the type of inside-outside threat that can surprise opponents.
For the Wolverines, watch for Aday Mara, partly because you can’t miss the 7-3 Spaniard. He also can shoot from outside but is a low-post menace and the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Mara’s issue at times has been limb-related, reaching and pushing his way into foul trouble. Once freed of the physical Big Ten, perhaps the Wolverines will find more room to unleash their offense, ranked eighth in the KenPom efficiency metrics (No. 1 in defensive efficiency).
“Typically in the NCAA Tournament, I don’t think it’s going to be quite as physical, but you never know,” May said. “We’ve got to do a better job of adjusting however the game is being called. If it’s called close, we need to adjust. If it’s prison ball, we need to adjust.”
We’re all prisoners of the moment now, eager to celebrate upstarts and upsets, easy to root against the bluebloods. Michigan and MSU have plenty of built-in advantages that can get neutralized by the Madness. Big underdogs are the scary opponents. Mounting pressure in one-and-done competition is the opponent that never goes away.
Bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
@bobwojnowski
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Wojo: Michigan and MSU first face herds of Bison, then loads of pressure
Reporting by Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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