One of the balances in formulating a final 53-man roster is correctly figuring out which players who are on the roster bubble are likely to be claimed by other teams. If the Detroit Lions want to keep both players at a spot, a deciding factor might be if the staff knows they can waive a player and get him back for the practice squad without another team claiming him off waivers.
It’s something Lions GM Brad Holmes has been exceedingly good at in his previous four years at the roster cutdown deadline. Lions head coach Dan Campbell relies on Holmes’ judgment in those cases.
“Well, I’ll tell you what, I’ve told you guys before, I lean on Brad (Holmes) for that, man,” Campbell said before Thursday’s practice. “I use his judgment, and I don’t know he’s ever been wrong that I can think of in five years. If he says somebody’s going to make it through, they make it through, and I trust that. From my standpoint, it’s pretty easy. It’s a lot harder for him, but for me, when he says it, he’s been right.”
Players who have less than four accrued NFL seasons are subject to waivers, while vested veterans are not. Being under contract for at least six games, including I.R., counts as an accrued season.
Detroit lost CB Starling Thomas to Arizona on a roster cutdown waiver claim in 2023, with no roster cuts from the Lions being claimed at the initial cutdown deadline in 2024. Around the league, 27 players were claimed in 2024, including Detroit reclaiming LB Trevor Nowaske after losing him to Arizona during the season a year earlier. Going back, 24 players were claimed in 2023 and 33 were claimed in 2022. Players who get claimed must remain on the active roster for at least four weeks, which makes poaching projects a little less likely than just scooping up a desirable discard.
There could very well be some challenges for Holmes to correctly divine the waiver wire fates of some current Lions who might not survive Tuesday’s roster cutdown from 90 to 53. Here are some of the waiver-eligible Lions on the roster bubble to know, with their guesstimated percentage odds of being claimed by another team if Detroit cuts them from the 53-man roster at the deadline.
Listed in alphabetical order
Mitchell Agude
Agude didn’t get claimed last year when he was arguably coming off a more impressive camp, fluctuating between EDGE and SAM LB. EDGE tends to be a position group that doesn’t get claimed often (just two in the last three years), too. 5 percent.
Keith Cooper
Cooper seems more likely to make the Lions’ 53-man roster with every practice. His tweener size (6-5/280) will repel some teams, but the undrafted rookie defensive lineman from Houston sure looks like a ready-to-roll NFL talent. 90 percent.
Kingsley Eguakun
Fighting to be the Lions’ backup center (and guard), Eguakun has shown progress from a year ago, when he did made it through to the practice squad. Just looking at the two teams the Lions have hosted in joint practices, Houston and Miami, Eguakun is as promising long-term and NFL-ready as any interior reserve on either roster, and that’s why he’s more likely to stick on the Lions’ 53-man roster than Michael Niese, who doesn’t seem to be a threat to get claimed. 35 percent.
Erick Hallett
Hallett has shown his positional versatility in camp and preseason, playing outside corner, slot corner and free safety–all reasonably well, if inconsistently. He’s also been effective on special teams, something bottom-roster players must have to bring value, if claimed. Almost a third of the players claimed in the last three years are defensive backs, which upticks the odds for Hallett not sneaking through to the Lions practice squad. 36 percent.
Hendon Hooker
Quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds tend to get a lot more shots than their play might relatively merit. Hooker, a third-rounder in 2023, has shown very real development in practices, but it’s not effectively translating to games. If the Lions waive him, which is an unknown proposition, some NFL team looking to freshen their QB depth chart figures to pounce in a league where Tim Boyle and Zach Wilson–both clearly inferior players to Hooker–keep getting signed. NFL teams and their thirst for QBs often defy logic. 82 percent.
Ian Kennelly
An undrafted rookie safety from D-II Grand Valley State, Kennelly is a strong developmental player with an outstanding athletic profile. Should he get waived by Detroit, the proviso that a claimed player has to stay on the active 53-man roster of the claiming team for four weeks helps shield Kennelly. He’s not someone who can immediately help a team, despite the impressive upside. 25 percent.
Nate Lynn
Lynn has consistently repped ahead of Isaac Ukwu and Mitchell Agude, even earning first-team reps at times this summer, and his performance merits it. As far as appeal to other teams, Lynn isn’t athletically special and doesn’t have a high profile as an undrafted EDGE (in 2024) coming out of FCS-level William & Mary. Probably safer to waive than he might seem. 20 percent.
Dominic Lovett
The only rookie draftee on the bubble, Lovett has a couple of factors working against him (and for the Lions) on getting claimed by another team, if waived. First, he’s not athletically special; Lovett is fast, but so are other wideouts who figure to get waived, and the Lions’ rookie is smaller than a lot of them. Size matters. Secondly, he’s put some well-thrown balls on the turf in practices and in preseason games. 20 percent.
Brodric Martin
Until about two weeks ago, Martin was a very easy cut with very little worry about being claimed, despite being a 2023 third-round pick. Injuries and a decided lack of tangible development made BroMart eminently safe. But the nose tackle has played quite well in recent practices and showed skills in the preseason game against Miami. Alas, he also showed a propensity for preventable penalties. 8 percent.
Jackson Meeks
Even though he’s undrafted, Meeks figures to hold much more risk than Lovett if he’s waived at wide receiver. He’s four inches (at least) taller and 30 pounds heavier, but plays at the same basic on-field speed. He’s also been a star in the preseason and a positive contributor on special teams. There are several WR-needy teams out there, too. 93 percent.
Isaac Ukwu
As is the case with Agude above, the Lions waived Ukwu last year and brought him back to the practice squad. His athletic profile and higher upside make him a little more likely to get claimed, but the odds remain pretty low here. 15 percent.
Nick Whiteside
The cornerback, a UFL refugee, has been an impressive cover man with ball skills and a knack for physicality. He’s got great length at outside CB (he’s 6-1), too. Miami media was practically salivating during the joint practice sessions at the idea the Dolphins could claim him off waivers, but that’s not necessarily the best guide. Whiteside is schematically limited to playing outside-only in man-heavy coverage, which wipes away interest from half the league off the bat. 35 percent.
This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: What are the odds of Lions roster bubble players getting claimed on waivers?
Reporting by Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire / Lions Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
