• What: Michigan State vs. UCLA
• When: 8:30 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: NBC Sports Network and streamed on Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 83 (MSU broadcast), 392 (UCLA broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 20-5 overall and 10-4 in the Big Ten, and entered the week ranked No. 10 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 15 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 13 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. UCLA is 17-8 overall, 9-5 in the Big Ten, and entered the week unranked by both major polls, No. 40 in the NET rankings and No. 41 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -9.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 757-307 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. UCLA — Mick Cronin is 516-241 in his 23rd season as a head coach and 151-70 in his seventh season with the Bruins. Prior to UCLA, he spent 13 seasons coaching Cincinnati and three at Murray State.
• Series: UCLA leads 8-4 all time, winning last season’s only meeting, in Los Angeles, which was the first since UCLA joined the Big Ten. Prior to that, the Bruins won an NCAA tournament play-in game against the Spartans in overtime in 2021 on the Bruins’ way to the Final Four. MSU won the two meetings before that — at the Maui Invitational in 2019 and in Las Vegas in 2018. Before that, the teams also met in the first round of the 2011 NCAA tournament, with the Bruins hanging on to win 78-76.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 9.9
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.5
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.7
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.6
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.1
UCLA
C (1) Xavier Booker (6-11) 7.2
PF (34) Tyler Bilodeau (6-9) 17.9
SF (3) Eric Dailey (6-8) 11.0
SG (0) Trent Perry (6-4) 12.7
PG (2) Donovan Dent (6-2) 13.5
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off their first lopsided defeat of the season, falling 92-71 at Wisconsin on Friday night. MSU gets two home games they’ll be favored in this week — UCLA and Ohio State — before finishing the regular season with a tough four-game stretch, going to Purdue and Indiana, hosting Rutgers and then finishing at Michigan.
The Spartans’ problems are partly turnover related. In Big Ten play, MSU turns the ball over a league-most 18.7% of the time. The Spartans have also slipped to 10th in 3-point shooting, making 33.4% of 3s in conference games. MSU remains the Big Ten’s best rebounding team on both ends and is No. 3 in defensive efficiency in league play. The Spartans are eighth in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency.
MORE: Couch: Unless something changes, Michigan State basketball’s offensive limitations will be an insurmountable hurdle
• UCLA update: UCLA’s visit to Breslin comes with the return of Xavier Booker, who transferred to UCLA after two seasons at MSU. Booker has started 23 of 25 games and averages 7.2 points and 3.7 rebounds in 20.3 minutes per game this season. His best game came on Feb. 3, when he scored 24 points in a win over Rutgers. Tom Izzo, who stays in touch regularly with Booker, is hoping MSU fans won’t boo him in his return. He’s one of four players, I believe, to return to play against MSU after leaving the program: Pierre Brooks (Butler), Rocket Watts (Oakland) and Russell Byrd (The Master’s College) are the others.
UCLA is coming off an 86-56 loss at Michigan on Saturday, during which guard Skyy Clark returned after missing a month with a hamstring injury. The Bruins’ other Big Ten defeats are against Indiana (in double overtime), at Ohio State, at Wisconsin and at Iowa. Their best Big Ten win is against Purdue. The Bruins have three returning players in their starting lineup with Booker. Their other transfer is a familiar player to MSU, as well: Donovan Dent, who was the lead guard for New Mexico, which MSU faced in the second round of last year’s NCAA tournament.
• Matchup analysis: The Bruins were projected to be better than they’ve been, given the key returners — Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey, Skyy Clark and Trent Perry, and the additions of Dent and Booker. UCLA, though, is ranked in the high 40s in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bruins don’t rebound all that well, which has hurt them on both ends. They are, however, an elite 3-point shooting team (at 38.1%) and they defend the 3-point shot well (holding opponents to 30%). Bilodeau is a tremendous player, with good scoring touch on the block and he’s a 45% 3-point shooter, who’s already made 47 of them this season. Clark is at close to 50% from 3. Perry is at 45%, Booker is at 42%. MSU has seen a couple teams recently get hot against them from deep — albeit on the road. If UCLA gets going from beyond the arc, the Bruins are dangerous.
• Prediction: MSU got its mojo back against Illinois and then immediately lost it at Wisconsin. That’s the home-road difference in college basketball. MSU needs a feel-good game. Mostly, the Spartans need a win. They should be able to win on the glass, but this could be a battle otherwise.
• Make it: MSU 75, UCLA 69
MORE: Couch: By transforming MSU Athletics, J Batt hopes to build a sustainable enterprise — and winning football
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball vs. UCLA tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
