As the GOP gubernatorial primary race heats up, the focus is on a Republican whose name won’t appear on the August ballot.
Whether President Donald Trump wades into the GOP primary is the “800-pound gorilla” in the contest, said Republican political consultant Jamie Roe. “If he does, I think that’s decisive for whoever it ends up being,” Roe said.
Every Republican candidate wants to win the president’s support. Former Attorney General Mike Cox, U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township, have all expressed confidence that they would earn a Trump endorsement, and businessman Perry Johnson called it “invaluable.”
The Michigan Democratic Party has dubbed the GOP contest the “MAGA primary,” a reference to Trump’s pledge to “Make America Great Again.” In fact, every Republican candidate has riffed on Trump’s signature slogan, pledging to “make Michigan great again.”
So far in the 2026 midterm cycle, most candidates endorsed by Trump have won their primary races, according to the election tracking website Ballotpedia. In fierce intraparty contests, Trump-backed challengers have defeated incumbent congressional Republicans, underscoring the president’s status as a kind of kingmaker in his party. But a recent defeat cut against the pattern when Trump’s pick to be Iowa’s next governor lost. A White House official declined to comment on the record about a possible Trump endorsement in the Michigan governor’s race.
With some exceptions, Trump has a history of backing Michigan candidates who prevail in their convention or primary races. But while Trump won Michigan twice, none of his endorsed candidates have ever won statewide office, including James, who lost his two bids for U.S. Senate.
In that pattern, some see a bind for Republicans: as they jockey for the coveted prize of a Trump endorsement to win the primary election, the president’s support presents a political liability in November. Trump’s job approval rating has cratered since returning to the White House, with his popularity dipping to new lows amid his Iran war, which has caused gas prices to skyrocket.
Andrea Bitely – who served as chief communications officer for former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s independent campaign for governor – called Trump “a blessing and a curse” for GOP candidates who want his support in the primary but then have to figure out how to play it in the general.
“You can’t take it for the primary and then move away from it. Once you get the endorsement, you have to double down,” said Allie Walker, president of communications firm Truscott Rossman.
That’s a huge problem for Republicans, said Jeff Timmer, a former Michigan GOP officer who now works for the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, who dubbed Trump’s support “kryptonite” in a general election.
Still, others don’t see Trump’s endorsement mattering much, because regardless of his intervention, Republicans are attached to the president. “Trump is baked into the Republican brand,” said Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.
It’s that brand that Democrats hope will sink GOP chances in the midterm election. In fighting for a Trump endorsement, all the GOP candidates have already proven their allegiance to an unpopular president who has unleashed economic chaos, they say. “So really, I mean, they’re doing our work for us,” said Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel.
But Cabel Roe sees a path for Republican victories in an election he described as a kind of upside-down beauty contest. His message to his party? “We’re not going to win because we’re prettier than the Democrats. I think we’re going to win because we’re less ugly,” he said.
Duggan tried to present himself as the most attractive option for voters fed up with both political parties, shaking up another red-blue fight in battleground Michigan as an independent candidate. But as the election drew closer, Duggan saw it morphing into a referendum on Trump, citing the president’s war in Iran and its economic fallout for his decision to drop out of the race.
“Right now, the war in Iran, inflation, gas prices all of that are really weighing down on Republican candidates in a way that is going to be really hard to overcome in November,” said Bitely. Still, there is a long way to go until then and a lot can change, she said.
Noting the president’s focus on federal races, some Michigan political observers said they wouldn’t be surprised if Trump stayed out of the GOP gubernatorial primary. But if he doesn’t, they expect him to weigh in at the last minute as he waits for a clear frontrunner to emerge. In 2022, Trump endorsed Republican Tudor Dixon for governor just four days before the primary election.
That year, Trump also backed Matt DePerno for attorney general and Kristina Karamo for secretary of state. The pair of political outsiders gained prominence for spreading conspiracies about the 2020 election. Like Dixon, those candidates also went on to lose to incumbent Democrats in the fall.
Republicans brushed off those losses as evidence that a Trump endorsement is political poison. Instead, they blamed the defeats on weak candidates.
Reporter Arpan Lobo contributed to this report
Contact Clara Hendrickson at chendrickson@freepress.com or 313-296-5743.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: In a heated Michigan GOP race for governor, Trump looms large
Reporting by Clara Hendrickson, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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By Clara Hendrickson, Detroit Free Press | USA TODAY Network
