Donald Trump is running out of time to find a genuine solution that spares Republicans from the consequences of his war with Iran.
The president has less than a month to rescue his party’s candidates in the November election. If the nation gets to Labor Day with gasoline prices still well above $4 a gallon and the president still engaged in a game of deal or no deal with Iran, the GOP may as well concede the November election.
No amount of fear-mongering over socialism will counter the resentment aimed at Republicans because of the damage done to American wallets by Trump’s hasty decision to start a war he had no strategy for ending.
It’s already too late to orchestrate a full turnaround before absentee ballots are mailed in late September. But if Trump could negotiate a real agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart the full flow of oil to world markets, consumers might see enough relief to ease their anxiety.
Consumers have become painfully familiar with what the industry calls the rocket and feather effect. Pump prices shoot up like a rocket when the cost of a barrel of oil goes up, and fall like a feather when crude goes down. That lag time varies, but it generally takes two to three weeks for savings to reach the gasoline pump.
To have real impact on voter sentiment, gasoline prices would have to move quickly toward the $3 a gallon level. The current average in Michigan is $4.36.
A major obstacle to boosting voter optimism enough to help the Republican candidates Trump endorsed, like John James and Mike Rogers in Michigan, is that he’s pronounced the war over so many times it will be difficult to convince voters of the veracity of any agreement he claims to have reached.
A market timer could make a fortune by buying stock just before Trump declares “we’ve got a deal” and selling just before Iran says “no, we don’t.”
Trump has declared that a peace pact was at hand more than 30 times since the bombing started in late February. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate has risen to 3.5% from 2.4% before the war started, with the biggest hits coming to groceries and energy prices.
Affordability is the primary motivator in this election cycle. Yet Trump has not made driving down prices a priority. Instead, he started a war he can’t extricate himself from, and one that is hurting nearly every American. And now, in what looks like desperation, he is considering offers that would leave Iran in a stronger position than when the war started by giving it more authority over traffic through the strait.
That sounds like higher prices ahead.
Trump lost his reelection bid in 2020 in part because he treated the COVID-19 pandemic as an annoyance and never adequately rose to the moment. His denial and defensiveness made it easy for Democrats to hang COVID around his neck, even as he pulled off a near miracle in the rapid development of the vaccine.
This time, Trump has done the Democrats’ work for them. Voters can see the clear line between their affordability fears and Trump’s war. Sixty percent of Americans blame him for higher gasoline prices, according to a Navigator Research poll. Trump isn’t on the ballot, but a whole lot of Republicans who support him are. Those Republicans need the president to act on gasoline prices with the urgency of a Labor Day deadline.
There’s no political model that suggests the electorate will reward a president ― or his party ― who they believe is the cause of their misery.
Nolan Finley’s columns appear regularly in The Detroit News.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Finley: Trump has until Labor Day to bring down gasoline prices
Reporting by Nolan Finley, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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By Nolan Finley, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
