By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, June 1 (Reuters) – Conflicting headlines on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire dominated world markets on Monday, with the big three U.S. stock indices eventually joining several key global benchmarks in an AI-driven rally to new highs after President Donald Trump said the two sides were still talking.
In my column today, I look at the so-called “K-shaped” U.S. economy. The personal saving rate has slumped to a historic low, while corporate America and the asset-owning rich are enjoying the fruits of the AI capex boom. Something has to give, right?
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Ceasefire very likely to end if Israeli attacks on Lebanon persist, Iranian TV says
2. AI giant Anthropic confidentially files for U.S. IPO as investors bet big on AI future
3. Nvidia launches new chip to bring AI directly to personal computers
4. Factories face soaring costs as Iran war causes supply shocks
5. INSIGHT-A bachelor’s in rare earths? In China, there are schools for that
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: MSCI World, MSCI Asia ex-Japan, MSCI EM index, Wall Street’s big three indexes, Japan’s Nikkei all hit new highs. South Korea +4%. Europe, UK fall.
• SECTORS/SHARES: Only two of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors rise – tech +2.5%, energy +1.9%. The rest fall, utilities leading the way -3%. Dell, Oracle both +10%, Nvidia +6%, Micron tops $1,000. Hewlett Packard +35% in after-hours trade following results. Qualcomm -9%, Meta and Intel -5%.
• FX: Dollar up broadly, USD/JPY up towards 160.00. NZD, SEK -1%, biggest G10 movers; ARS -1.5%, biggest EM decliner. Bitcoin -3% to lowest since mid-April.
• BONDS: Treasury yields up as much as 3 bps.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil spikes: Brent +5%, WTI +6%. U.S. natgas -3%. Gold -1%.
Today’s Talking Points
* IPO mAnIa
Wall Street’s AI frenzy went up a notch on Monday. Nvidia unveiled a new chip that puts AI capabilities directly into laptops and desktops, and Anthropic said it has confidentially filed for a U.S. market listing. OpenAI is preparing a similar filing, and SpaceX is set to price its IPO later this month.
That’s potentially up to $4 trillion of market cap valuation at IPO in the coming weeks. Even though the value of shares floated will be much lower, the questions still remain – will the market be able to absorb these new issues, and is this a sign that the market is at or near a frothy top?
* Everybody’s talking about ISM
Figures on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity is growing at its fastest pace in four years, driven by AI capex. This may be something of a surprise to the casual observer (not the AI capex bit) – aren’t tariffs, inflation, and record-low consumer confidence meant to be a dead weight on the economy?
Maybe firms are front-loading orders ahead of a downturn, and executives do say war, tariffs and price pressures are major concerns. Still, factories are doing brisk business, to the surprise of many economists, if the U.S. economic surprises index is any guide.
* Leadership
Monday’s session on Wall Street was remarkable. The big three indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow – all hit new highs. Yet only two of the 11 sectors on the S&P 500, the broadest measure of the market, actually rose: tech +2.4% and energy +2%. The other nine sectors all fell, some significantly – utilities slumped 3% and consumer discretionaries fell 2.6%.
Narrow leadership in U.S. stocks is nothing new, but this is pretty remarkable, especially considering some big tech names like Meta, Intel and Qualcomm fell between 5% and 9%. Don’t rule out another tech-led rise on Tuesday, after Hewlett Packard shares soared 35% after the bell on Monday.
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Australia current account (Q1)
• South Korea inflation (May)
• Euro zone inflation (May, flash estimate)
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to House of Lords, BoE rate-setter Megan Greene speaks at separate event
• U.S. ‘JOLTS’ job openings (April)
• U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
