Florida isn’t likely to see a tropical storm this weekend, but it will get a lot more rain.
An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days over the northeastern Gulf of America and then move slowly northeast over the state early next week, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Some gradual development is possible while it “meanders,” but no formation is expected over the next 48 hours, and there is only a 20% chance of development over the next week, according to the latest update at 8 a.m., July 17.
However, the slow-moving system is forecast to bring thunderstorms and dump rain across the state as it moves across. The Tampa Bay area is expected to see 6-8 inches of rain over the next seven days, with the heaviest rainfall arriving Sunday.
The more dangerous effect may be the heat. The moisture coming into the area, combined with expected temperatures in the 90s in the Panhandle, could drive heat indices (“real feels”) up into the 100 to 107 range over the weekend and 105 to 111 or higher next week, according to the National Weather Service in Alabama.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the state, forecasters said
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The National Hurricane Center is also watching a broad area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands that’s associated with a tropical wave and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, forecasters say that by the weekend, the area is not expected to develop.
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In the Pacific off the coast of California, Tropical Storm Elida could become a hurricane today, the NHC said. It’s expected to continue moving northwest, away from the continental U.S.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear have been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop.
“So far, we believe the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in this area is low, but probably represents the best chance for tropical development throughout the Atlantic basin prior to the end of July,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
The National Hurricane Center said July 17 there’s a low chance for tropical development in the Gulf over the weekend.
The only named storm so far this year has been Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed June 17. On average, the second named storm of the Atlantic season forms by July 17.
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The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bertha.
What impacts could Florida feel this weekend?
Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat regardless of development or official designation, DaSilva said via email July 15.
“If anything develops in the Gulf, the storm would likely move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area, bringing the chance for flooding rain across portions of the southeastern United States,” DaSilva said.
“While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and South Carolina due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.”
“Mid-level moisture is limited and upper-level winds are marginal, so whether something organizes or not the primary impact will be enhanced rain chances in Florida and the coastal Southeast,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Otherwise, the tropical Atlantic is sheared out, dusty, quiet, and set to stay that way through the end of July,” Truchelut said.
National Hurricane Center watching 2 disturbances, 2 tropical waves
The National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. July 17, was watching two areas with a low potential for development and two tropical waves.
Northeastern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders over the northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week.
Eastern tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave is located about 175 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The low continues to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become even less favorable for development over the weekend.
There were two tropical waves out there:
Tropical Storm Elida expected to become hurricane soon as Pacific remains active
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Elida is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring three tropical disturbances.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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“We could see development very quickly close to home, so it’s something people need to watch closely.”
Florida weather radar for July 17, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC tracking disturbance off Florida. How it’ll affect your weekend
Reporting by C. A. Bridges, Daytona Beach News-Journal / Naples Daily News
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By C. A. Bridges, Daytona Beach News-Journal | USA TODAY Network
