There’s always a fun push and pull between the old school analysts and the analytic community in the world of college football, as each side tries to boil things down to a common conclusion: Who is good, and who is not? Algorithms and math can only tell so much of the story when examining teams against each other, but the eye test leaves many things to slip through the cracks.
Because of this, we like to rely on ESPN’s Football Power Index, a measure of team strength intended to accurately predict a team’s future performance based on talent, simulations, and metrics.
According to the FPI, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are projected to be a strong team in 2026, and favorites to repeat as Big 12 Champions, with a strong case to make it back to the College Football Playoff and make a run at the national championship game. With a loaded roster featuring some of the best defensive players in the nation, the Red Raiders have high expectations, especially with a schedule that should allow for smooth sailing throughout the season.
Still, numbers and projections can only tell so much. In the end, all has to be settled on the field. Let’s look at what the FPI predicts Texas Tech will do in the 2026 season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Record Prediction, per ESPN FPI
ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech to win 10.8 games and lose 1.8, which is the single best record prediction in the country. This doesn’t come as a surprise, since the Red Raiders have one of the easiest strength-of-schedule in the Power 4 this season. Notre Dame is also expected to finish with an excellent record, predicted at 10.7-1.3.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Big 12 Title Prediction, Per ESPN FPI
The Red Raiders are the heavy favorites to repeat as Big 12 champions, boasting a huge 45.9% chance to win the conference when all is said and done. The second-best odds in the Big 12 belong to the BYU Cougars, at 16.5%. The only team with higher odds of winning its conference is the Miami Hurricanes, which has a 48.9% chance of winning the ACC, per the FPI.
Texas Tech Red Raiders College Football Playoff Chances, Per ESPN FPI
With such a great chance of winning the Big 12, it comes as no surprise that Texas Tech also has a good shot to return to the College Football Playoff, boasting a 57.9% chance, per the FPI. This is the highest percentage chance in the Big 12, but only the seventh-highest in the nation. Ohio State leads the way with a 75.5% chance, followed by Notre Dame (74.4%), Texas (69.9%), and Oregon (64.7%).
Texas Tech Red Raiders National Championship Chances, Per ESPN FPI
FPI also predicts the Red Raiders have an 8.5% chance of making it to the national championship game in Las Vegas and a 3.7% chance of winning it all, which are the ninth-best odds in the country. Of course, that largely depends on Texas Tech’s path through the playoffs. If they are to repeat as Big 12 champions, the expectation is that they would get a first-round bye in the postseason, and a relatively manageable matchup in the second round. Of course, that was the expectation last year, but they ran into an Oregon team that shut them out, 23-0, in the second round a year ago.
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This article originally appeared on Red Raiders Wire: ESPN FPI projects Texas Tech’s record, Big 12 title, CFP chances
Reporting by Zachary Neel, Red Raiders Wire / Red Raiders Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Zachary Neel, Red Raiders Wire | USA TODAY Network
