There’s a small chance of “homegrown development” of a tropical system near Florida this week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the area of showers and thunderstorms a low chance for development over the next two to seven days.
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If some of this sounds familiar, it’s because Tropical Storm Chantal impacted the Fourth of July holiday weekend in 2025.
Chantal moved across Florida on July 3 — bringing showers and thunderstorms to the state — and strengthened into a tropical depression in the Atlantic east of Florida. Chantal made landfall as a tropical storm near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, on July 6, 2025, with 51-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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As we wait to see if anything develops out of the disturbance currently off the east coast, what’s more certain is the heat that will impact Florida and a huge portion of the U.S. this week and into the holiday weekend.
Heat advisories have been issued June 29 for almost half of Florida. Expect heat impacts throughout the week. Feels-like temps June 29 could reach as high as 110 in some areas, according to the National Weather Service.
Florida residents shouldn’t be concerned about the three tropical waves out there.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
The next named storm of the season will be Bertha.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m, June 29:
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Forecasters are watching a disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic showing a low chance for development this week.
While the system is located in one of the areas typical for tropical cyclone development in June — southwestern Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf — as of June 29, chances are low for development.
National Hurricane Center tracking disturbance in Atlantic
There is one tropical disturbance and three topical waves highlighted by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. June 29.
Tropical disturbance
Offshore southern U.S.: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the southeasternU.S. coast are associated with an area of low pressure along a frontal boundary.
Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for some tropical development over the next day or two as the system drifts southward and then westward before conditions become even less favorable later this week.
Tropical waves
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
Florida weather radar for June 29, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tcpalm.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Keep eye on disturbance near Florida coast as holiday weekend nears
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Treasure Coast Newspapers
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
