Detroit — Rumors are swirling, GMs are swooning, vultures are circling. They’ll hover over the Tigers and Tarik Skubal the next few weeks, poised to pluck the two-time Cy Young winner and pick the carcass clean. As it stands now, the Tigers have no choice but to let them circle, perhaps even invite them for a closer look.
Except for one little development, which could become a big development, considering the Tigers are a freakishly streaky team: The wounds are healing and the carcass is stirring.
After finishing May on a 4-21 slog while fashioning the worst record and worst offense in the majors, the Tigers just swept first-place Tampa Bay on the road, 10-9, 8-0, 7-2. Next up is Seattle this weekend in Detroit, a timely adversary. The Mariners devastated the Tigers in that 15-inning classic in Game 5 of the ALDS last year, with Skubal’s dominance (and durability) on display.
Now Skubal’s future is the talk of the baseball world, with possibilities shifting. The Tigers have shown no intention of signing their superstar to a long-term contract reportedly in the $400-million range, and Skubal’s recent injury backs that approach. They also have shown no intention of trading him, although their miserable start obviously could alter plans. Chris Ilitch and team president Scott Harris can’t possibly have a firm intention yet, with the Aug. 3 trade deadline two months away, 99 games still to play and Skubal perhaps two weeks from returning from elbow surgery.
The Tigers dug a 22-38 hole that coincided with a staggering spate of injuries, including Skubal’s May 6 surgery, and the situation is fluid, to say the least. Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres just returned and boosted the offense, and they’ve inched up to 25-38 and fourth place in the AL Central. Until Skubal, Justin Verlander, Casey Mize and some bullpen arms get back, it’s impossible to predict where this is headed next. But the speculation has stirred to a froth, and while Skubal, Harris and AJ Hinch might find it annoying, it presents fascinating opportunities.
A massive dilemma
If the Tigers legitimately climb into contention, and Skubal is in full form, Harris should keep him and go for it, becoming a buyer at the deadline. Risky, sure. But who knows what baseball will look like under a new collective-bargaining agreement, or how much the Tigers could get for Skubal? Who knows when they again will have the most-dominant pitcher in the game?
Do the Tigers have time to earn a shot at a third consecutive playoff berth? It’s not as outlandish as you might think. In a weak AL, FanGraphs currently pegs their chances at 15.9%. I’m not sure they have the everyday lineup, but when healthy, they certainly have the arms. This will be the most critical juncture of Harris’ four-year tenure, a two-month stretch of league-wide obsession over the most-valuable player on the market.
If the Tigers are out of contention in late July, Harris and Ilitch must choose the path many in baseball expect: Trade Skubal rather than lose him for nothing. But this is where it gets tricky for the team, the fans and the front office as Aug. 3 approaches: How do you define contention? Slightly in a playoff spot? Within three games? Within six games?
My guess: They have to be within three games (or so) of the wild card, they have to be healthier, and their offense and bullpen have to show some level of consistency.
Skubal has his own remedy for the dilemma, when asked recently about the latest batch of rumors: “With all the trade talk, we just gotta start winning games. Last year, nobody even whispered about me being traded. Winning shuts all that noise down, and that’s exactly what this team needs.”
Well yeah, that would help. Every national pundit has weighed in on the Great Skubal Sweepstakes, some pegging the chances of a trade at 90%. Rumored suitors include all the usual gluttonous suspects and more: Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Rays, Blue Jays, Braves, Orioles, Padres, Diamondbacks.
The volume of interest might give the Tigers leverage in a situation where a team normally wouldn’t have much. Skubal, 29, is coming off his third elbow surgery (albeit a minor arthroscopic one). His one-year arbitration-awarded $32-million contract is expiring, and agent Scott Boras generally drags clients to free agency whether they like it or not. In normal circumstances, a rental pitcher coming off injury, seeking a reported (speculated?) $400-million contract just as MLB’s labor deal expires and a work stoppage looms, would be too rich and risky for most teams.
Decisions, decisions
Except Skubal isn’t normal, and neither are the Tigers, who defy logic (and nature) and constantly change their stripes. Before the season, they were slight favorites to win the AL Central and a top-12 World Series favorite, boasting a top-10 payroll. If they’re in contention, however you want to define it, I think the decision will be made for Harris to ride it out.
If they’re out of it, the Tigers need a bidding war. With the current climate, would the richest teams give up two or three top prospects, or a rising major-league position player, for a pending free agent? This is a test that Harris must pass, for the Tigers’ benefit and his own reputation. Industry reports have suggested Harris is difficult to work with, reluctant to pull the trigger on deals. Evidence supports the theory, although he had to rebuild the organization before he could aggressively pursue trades.
His free-agent signings have been decidedly mixed, from the big ones (Framber Valdez, Torres) to the missed one (Alex Bregman) to the awful ones (Kenta Maeda, Alex Cobb). Notable trades are almost nonexistent, and he mostly stands pat at the deadline.
He won’t have that option at this deadline because any decision will be enormous, whether keeping or trading Skubal. Same for Mize, Torres or others if the Tigers get stuck in sell mode. This team is confusing, but it’s Harris’ job to figure it out.
Was last year’s march to the best record in baseball at 59-34 on July 8 an illusion, which led to delusion? Was their staggering collapse, blowing a 14-game division lead, a truer measure of who they were? But oh wait, they recovered to advance to the ALDS for the second straight year.
In 2024, the Tigers first earned their streaky stripes, with a 55-63 record on Aug. 10 and a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They went on a 31-13 closing flourish to grab the wild card, then beat the Astros. They overcame a 10-game deficit in the final month, the first team in the current playoff format to do it. That historic run has become their beacon of hope, or a beaker of delusion.
That 2024 team never dropped lower than nine games under .500. These Tigers were 16 games below .500, and it remains to be seen if their Tampa tantrum is more than just a harmless stirring. But stirrings can become streaks, especially in a year when the team currently holding the final wild-card spot in the AL are the 30-31 Athletics.
Amid all those streaks and injuries, the Tigers’ regular-season record since last July 8 is 53-79, a winning percentage that extrapolates to 65-97 over a full season. Records like that draw the ire of fans, the angst of the front office and the endless speculation. Get used to those circling birds.
bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
@bobwojnowski
Mariners at Tigers
Series: Three games at Comerica Park, Detroit
First pitch: Friday — 6:40 p.m.; Saturday — 1:10 p.m.; Sunday — 1:40 p.m.
TV/radio: All games on DSN/97.1, 107.9
Probables: Friday — RHP Bryan Woo (5-3, 3.44) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (2-4, 4.39); Saturday — RHP Bryce Miller (1-0, 1.71) vs. RHP Keider Montero (2-3, 3.69); Sunday — RHP Luis Castillo (2-5, 5.53) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (1-7, 5.31)
Woo, Mariners: He’s coming a month where he limited hitters to a .177/.225/.262 slash line with a .486 OPS in five starts. Stingy. He’s been hard on left-handed hitters (.199/.258/.336), largely because of a 95-96 mph four-seamer that Statcast gives a plus-9 run value. He throws more sinkers to righties, but his sweeper (.188 average against, 38.1% whiff) is platoon neutral, deadly to both sides.
Valdez, Tigers: The Tigers have lost the last five games he started, but he was supported (or not) by three runs or less in all of them. He’s struggled in his four starts at Comerica Park with a 5.14 ERA and 1.429 WHIP, which seems counterintuitive. Also, the home run ball is biting him more than usual this season. He’s given up seven in 67⅔ innings. Last season, in 192 innings, he allowed just 15 homers.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Wojo: Could streaky Tigers shake up Skubal Sweepstakes?
Reporting by Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
