A “super” El Niño may be building in the Pacific — but for Texas, the real impacts likely won’t show up just yet. The climate pattern tends to have a limited influence during summer, with clearer signals emerging closer to fall and winter.
One area where El Niño can make a difference sooner is hurricane season. It typically leads to fewer storms in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear, but fewer storms don’t mean no risk. It only takes one landfalling system to bring significant impacts to Texas.
By late fall and into winter, El Niño’s influence becomes more consistent, often tilting Texas toward cooler, wetter conditions. That’s when the pattern tends to have its strongest and most reliable effect on the state’s weather.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
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Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
Countdown to start of hurricane season
What is El Niño?
“El Niño occurs when water temperatures along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, southeast of Hawaii, are warmer than the historical average,” according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email April 15.
“The official threshold is when those temperatures are at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (which would be 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the historical average for several months in a row. It is not declared immediately. Those conditions need to persist, typically for about three months, to confirm the pattern.”
How El Niño impacts weather near you
El Niño’s effects can differ depending on location, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
For instance, the Southern U.S. often experiences cooler and wetter conditions during fall and winter. The pattern can also increase the frequency of storm systems, raising the risk of severe weather events such as heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms and occasional flooding.
In contrast, the Northern U.S. typically sees warmer-than-average temperatures when a strong El Niño is underway. Winters tend to be milder overall, with less snow and fewer extended cold spells, which can ease some winter hazards but also affect water supply.
The West Coast, particularly California, faces a higher likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding during a strong El Niño. Warmer ocean waters can fuel more intense storm systems that bring prolonged rain, raising concerns about landslides, river flooding and other weather-related impacts.
It also typically means less tropical activity in the Atlantic basin, DaSilva said.
“That is because El Niño strengthens winds in the upper atmosphere, particularly from the west, which creates conditions that are not favorable for tropical systems to form and strengthen. There is a strong correlation between El Niño years and fewer tropical systems overall.
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“However, that does not mean there will be no impacts. It just means the total number of storms is usually lower.”
How does a ‘Super’ El Niño differ?
Not all El Niño events are created equal. Some are mild and have only localized effects, while others can dramatically reshape weather patterns across the globe. What makes a “Super” El Niño different is its intensity and the scope of its influence.
A stronger El Niño brings more intense warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can significantly alter the jet stream. This shift affects weather systems far beyond the tropics, increasing the likelihood of widespread impacts across multiple continents. Scientists also have higher confidence in predicting the potential consequences when an event reaches this strength.
If this system continues to gain strength through summer and fall, it could rival — or even surpass — some of the most powerful events in modern records, including the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niños. Those events produced notable global effects, from extreme rainfall and flooding in some regions to droughts and heatwaves in others.
Repeating! El Niño doesn’t protect Texas from all tropical threats
El Niño doesn’t guarantee Texas will be safe or that storms won’t hit the East Coast or Gulf at all.
A weak El Niño in 2004 didn’t protect Florida, which was hit by four hurricanes: Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.
What is La Niña?
“La Niña is essentially the opposite of El Niño.
“It happens when ocean waters in the eastern Pacific near the equator, southeast of Hawaii, are cooler than the historical average. Scientists typically define La Niña when temperatures are at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (which would be 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) below the historical average for a sustained period,” DaSilva said.
What does La Niña mean for Texas?
“La Niña typically leads to more tropical development in the Atlantic because there is less wind shear, which means storms have a better chance to form and strengthen.
“During La Niña years, we usually see more hurricanes and tropical storms overall, and the storm tracks can shift farther west, sometimes increasing the risk for places like Florida and Texas,” DaSilva said.
“Florida can be more vulnerable during La Niña years due to both the higher number of storms and the way storm tracks tend to shift.”
Florida winters during La Niña periods tend to be drier, DaSilva said.
What is ENSO?
Short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO is the recurring climate pattern that involves the change of temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Every three to seven years, water temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1 to 3 degrees Celsius compared to normal, according to the National Weather Service.
“El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.”
“ENSO basically is a shift in ocean water temperatures near the equator that can influence weather patterns around the world,” DaSilva said.
Is there anything in the tropics right now?
Nope. The National Hurricane Center hasn’t issued a tropical outlook showing anything with potential for development since the 2025 season ended Nov. 30, 2025.
The hurricane center will start issuing its daily tropical outlooks on May 15, although it could issue one earlier if anything shows potential for development.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Confused? Here’s what ENSO, La Niña, El Niño mean for Texas
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK / Corpus Christi Caller Times
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
