The United States team in the World Baseball Classic took a shocking 8-6 loss to underdog Italy on Tuesday, March 10, putting the Americans in a surprisingly precarious position despite a 3-1 record in pool play.
Whether USA advances to the quarterfinals hinges on a game Wednesday, March 11 between Mexico and Italy. USA still has a good chance to move forward, but it’s far from certain. Here’s what to know.
Could USA get eliminated from the WBC today?
The Americans finished pool play at 3-1, but they’re still not guaranteed a top-two finish, which is necessary to advance. If Mexico beats Italy, all three teams will finish 3-1, and the two advancing squads will be decided on tiebreakers.
The tiebreaker to know is runs allowed per inning against the other teams involved in the tiebreaker. It’s not just whole “runs allowed” because some games are shortened by mercy rules or the common instance of defending for only eight innings instead of a full nine because the visiting team lost.
USA has allowed 11 runs in 54 outs (.2037 runs per out). Mexico has allowed five runs in 24 outs (.2083) and Italy has allowed six runs while recording 27 outs (.2222). The lowest of those numbers is preferred, but that number is going to vary wildly based on how the Mexico-Italy game plays out.
If the Mexico-Italy game involves a lot of scoring, USA may be safe on tiebreaker regardless of outcome. If it’s a low-scoring game …
What needs to happen for USA to advance?
If Italy beats Mexico, USA advances. Italy will have finished pool play 4-0, USA 3-1 and Mexico 2-2. It’s a simple comparison of records.
If Mexico beats Italy, USA needs to be one of the top two teams based on the aforementioned tiebreaker. A low-scoring game that Mexico wins is bad news for USA. If Mexico scores or allows six runs, the win/loss outcome in Mexico-Italy won’t matter and USA will be in if the game avoids going to extras.
When do the WBC quarterfinals begin?
Games in the quarterfinal round take place March 13-14, with the semifinals March 15-16, and the final March 17. All games are single-elimination from here.
How has Brice Turang fared in the WBC for USA?
If this is indeed the end for USA, it’s not the fault of Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang, who has four doubles and five hits overall, with four RBIs and two runs scored. One of those doubles came against Italy, and he scored on a Pete Crow-Armstrong home run. Turang has a .417 average and 1.167 OPS in the small sample.
How has Andrew Fischer fared in the WBC for Italy?
Brewers top prospect Andrew Fischer didn’t play for Italy in the upset over the United States. He has only four at-bats, having played in one game, but he did homer, single and drive in two runs in that contest. At the moment, he’s below big-leaguers Zach Dezenzo and Miles Mastrobuoni on the third-base depth chart, with veteran Kansas City Royals slugger Vinnie Pasquantino manning first base.
How has Joey Ortiz fared in the WBC for Mexico?
The Brewers shortstop has flashed some steady defense and has gone 2-for-9 with a double and RBI. Former Brewer Rowdy Tellez has gone 1-for-8 with two walks.
Which other teams have advanced to the WBC quarterfinals?
Venezuela and Dominican Republic play March 11, but both are 3-0 and assured of advancing to the quarterfinals. Japan and Korea have advanced from their pool, and Puerto Rico is assured of moving on in its pool. Canada and Cuba remain eligible for the final spot in Puerto Rico’s pool, pending the outcome of their head-to-head battle March 11.
Canada got into this position with a 3-2 upset of Puerto Rico on March 10. Current Brewer Tyler Black drew a bases-loaded walk and former Brewer Abraham Toro drove in what became the winning run with a fourth-inning single. Former Brewer Martín Maldonado drove in a run for PR with a groundout.
Jackson Chourio went 1-for-3 with an RBI in his first game with Venezuela after he sat out the first two as a precaution with a sore hand.
William Contreras has gone 0-for-7 but does have a walk and run scored for Venezuela. Angel Zerpa has thrown two scoreless innings.
Abner Uribe has a scoreless inning for the Dominican Republic.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Is USA out of World Baseball Classic? What are tiebreakers to know?
Reporting by JR Radcliffe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
