IOWA CITY — After the letdown against Penn State, there were still two resume-building opportunities in the regular season for Iowa basketball to erase any lingering doubt about its place in the NCAA Tournament field.
Now that is down to one.
Iowa took two-loss Michigan down to the wire in a valiant upset attempt. But the Hawkeye men ultimately fell short to the national title contenders, 71-68, and were unable to grab the type of win that would undoubtedly seal the program’s first March Madness berth since 2023.
Between Iowa’s final two games of the regular season — Michigan and Nebraska — the Cornhuskers are the better matchup for the Hawkeyes.
Even though Iowa plays Nebraska on the road, the size, athleticism and talent of the two teams are much more comparable than the seismic gap the Hawkeyes faced against the Wolverines, which made it such a tough task. Plus, Iowa has also already shown that it can beat Nebraska this season.
Iowa is still in solid shape to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Hawkeyes are not yet immune to a worst-case scenario, which would consist of losing the last three games of the regular season and then exiting the Big Ten Tournament after just one game. A collapse of that magnitude leading up to Selection Sunday would put Iowa’s NCAA Tournament spot in jeopardy.
But a win over Nebraska on March 8 would put that potential nightmare to bed.
Iowa established a defensive blueprint for how to defeat Nebraska in the signature win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Feb. 17. The Cornhuskers shot just 41% from the field, 21% from deep and were held to 52 points, which is tied for a season-low. Bennett Stirtz did a tremendous job defensively on former Hawkeye Pryce Sandfort, who was contained to 13 points on 3-of-7 from the field and 2-of-6 from deep.
Iowa also won the rebounding battle in decisive fashion, 37-24.
The problem is that the level of defensive intensity Iowa played with against Nebraska has not been an every-game habit. Penn State shot 64% from the field and 60% from deep in Iowa’s head-scratching road loss. The Hawkeyes showed improvement against the Wolverines. While Michigan did shoot an efficient 53% from the field and 50% from deep, it also turned the ball over 18 times, which played a key factor in Iowa’s ability to remain competitive.
“I think we tried to simplify some things,” Cam Manyawu said of Iowa’s defense after the loss to Michigan. “We’ve been trying to do that. But really, it was just coach (Ben McCollum) telling us we’ve got to go out there and do it. We’ve shown that we can do it. And then we, all the sudden, kind of got away from it. So right now, it’s time to get back to that and being the really good defensive team that we can be. There’s no better time than now. It’s March. So getting back to playing our best basketball.”
Iowa has shown it can play with some of the best teams in the country this season, the latest example coming against Michigan. But consistency has been the larger issue. Stealing a win at Nebraska means Iowa would need to string together commendable performances in back-to-back games against teams ranked in the top nine of the AP Poll.
It remains to be seen whether Iowa can get close to replicating what it did defensively the first time around against Nebraska. That the Cornhuskers are coming off a loss to UCLA in which they shot just 39% from the field and 21% from deep is a bit unsettling, considering that could make Nebraska due for a monster offensive performance against the Hawkeyes.
Recently, the Hawkeyes’ outings on the road have left much to be desired. That’s not a promising sign, considering Iowa just played its last game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season. Since winning three road games in a row earlier this season, Iowa has now lost its last three games away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena, including a pair of duds against Maryland and Penn State.
“For me, personally, I just think that the main thing is bringing what we brought today every single day,” Manyawu said after the loss to Michigan. “And I think that’s kind of been something that’s been missing for us. Game to game it’s not the same. So if we can play like we played today every single game from here on out, we have a chance to do something special. So just making sure that we all understand that.”
Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction
If this becomes a game where Iowa is trying to keep pace with Nebraska in an offensive shootout, there’s not much confidence the Hawkeyes will walk away with a win. Look no further than the game against Wisconsin, where Iowa didn’t have enough gas in the tank to match the Badgers’ scoring attack.
Iowa’s offense has not been good enough for that. The Hawkeyes have not shot better than 32.1% from deep in any of their last eight games. Iowa has not scored more than 76 points since the win over Washington on Feb. 4, when the Hawkeyes dropped 84.
Barring an unexpected offensive explosion, Iowa’s most realistic path to victory against Nebraska is recreating the type of rock fight that transpired the first time these teams met.
But for that to happen, Iowa will have to defy some of its recent road trends. Right now, it’s fair to be skeptical about whether the Hawkeyes are capable of doing that.
Nebraska 75, Iowa 69
Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa basketball vs Nebraska preview, prediction for Hawkeyes
Reporting by Tyler Tachman, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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