America’s celebration of abundance this month arrives as climbing food prices once again have people tightening their belts. But depending on where they shop, the traditional star of the show — the turkey — could be the inflation fighter Thanksgiving celebrants can bless.
A Palm Beach Post review of supermarket prices, plus third-party analysis, found eating and being merry on the Nov. 27 holiday this year could be no more costly than a year ago. That is especially so if you go with traditional fixings — and get it through special deals — it turns out. When it comes to the drinking part, well, that could get really pricey.
The standard centerpiece of the festivities, the bird native to North America and noted for its aggressive demeanor and tough texture in the wrong hands, is beating back price increases, according to an analysis from Wells Fargo’s Thanksgiving Food Report.
The turkey pricing, however, is likely the biggest factor in why some grocery chains are offering their traditional Thanksgiving meal deal at the same price or lower than last year, even as general price indexes show the cost of food at home rising.
All this, however, is just when measured against last year. In comparison to, say, pre-pandemic 2019, it is a bounty, at least cost-wise, less to be thankful for. And despite the comforting Wells Fargo review, The Post survey of local grocery stores found turkey prices higher in some outlets.
Here is what the Post found in our survey.
Turkeys beating expectations in a mixed bag
Let’s start with our methodology — and a comparison to three years ago when price increases first really jolted and worried people.
In the wake of a 40-year historic spike in inflation in 2022, The Palm Beach Post at the time set off to find out just how much wider Floridians were being forced to open their wallets for traditional staples that make a meal worth giving thanks for.
This November, The Post surveyed local grocers for similar items and the findings indicate while turkey deals are available, there have been fluctuations in side dish staples such as red and sweet potatoes in the last three years. The real price shocks, though, are the after-dinner coffee and that fine European wine.
Most significantly, the November 2022 turkey prices — 49 cents per pound — are coming back for the holiday at many grocery stores. That’s a steal compared to the Publix-per-pound price of more than $2 found in one Palm Beach County store on Nov. 12. Other 49 cents-per-pound turkey deals could also be found the week of Nov. 16 at Winn-Dixie and Walmart locations. Target birds were going for 79 cents a pound and Aldi’s were at 97 cents at the stores The Post visited.
All those retail prices are beating the wholesale prediction of the big bird’s retail costs.
Since the turkey flocks have been hit with avian flu, 3% fewer birds than last year are expected to populate grocery freezers, according to industry reports. Ahead of Thanksgiving, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook, predicted the wholesale price of frozen turkey will rise from last year’s 92 cents a pound to $1.32.
So the birds for sale this holiday will be relative loss leaders — flying onto shelves at a retail loss to get customers in the door.
Consumers have at least that much to be thankful for.
Somewhat stable staples for the 2025 Thanksgiving feast
A wide range of prices are seen locally when it comes to a product that has provoked lots of sticker shock over the last three years: eggs.
When it comes to buttering up that bird, you may catch a break. On Nov. 12, a Publix store charged $4.79 for a pound of butter, with the other competitors ranging from $3.67 at Walmart to $3.99 at Winn-Dixie. Regardless, it’s a better shopping experience than in 2022 when that pound of butter you purchased on average for $2.69 the prior year skyrocketed to $2-increase.
In the run up to the holiday, some supermarkets are charging less for eggs, that could be critical for that perfect, flaky pie crust.
For example, the 18 large eggs at Walmart for as low as $2.92 were a substantial discount from 2022’s $3.49 price. But it looks like Winn-Dixie and Publix have raised their egg prices by 37% — to about $4.80 for a count of 18 eggs — from the price found in 2022.
Food that can be harvested from U.S. soil this time of year — onions, potatoes, acorn squash and sweet potatoes — have decreased or increased in price, depending on the product, according to the 2025 USDA’s National Retail Report on specialty crops.
A 3-pound bag for round red potatoes is down 25% from November 2022; the per-pound price of sweet potatoes has jumped nearly 40%. A 3-pound bag of yellow sweet onions is up nearly 75% from November 2022 while a 2-pound bag of red onions has dropped 37%.
Imported large mangoes, meanwhile, which wouldn’t come from the United States this time of year, have increased nearly 30% on a per-piece basis since November 2022.
Thanksgiving dessert may not cost you more this year again depending on where you shop. The pumpkin pie price of $4.99 found in 2022 was also at Target for Thanksgiving 2025. Publix’s 8-inch pumpkin pie is going for $5.99.
Beverages are another problem altogether, even if you don’t insist on French or Portuguese or Spanish wine.because of a 15% tariff presently on the European Union’s finest.
And the price of that after-dinner coffee has increased in the last eight months more than it has in years, according to industry reports. Blame the 50% U.S. tariff that’s been set on the world’s largest coffee-producer in the world, Brazil.
Holiday marketing
So let’s talk about that other Thanksgiving tradition. No, not football watching. We mean arguing politics with your invitees.
At least the debate over prices and tariffs and inflation will give you plentiful fodder.
Overall, the latest figures from the Consumer Price Index show the food at home has risen 2.7% over the last year and South Florida is getting hit even harder, with food at home costs rising 4.7%, according to the Consumer Price Index Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Still, President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted this month that grocery prices are “way down.” When he visited South Florida Nov. 5 to speak at the America Business Forum, he claimed he brought a receipt — Walmart’s Thanksgiving promotional meal basket — and stated the chain’s annual Thanksgiving meal package was now significantly cheaper.
This year, Walmart’s basket that feeds 10 people is costing about 25% less: $40 compared to last year’s price of about $55.
Later, reports pointed out that Walmart’s basket of plenty has fewer items than last year and it requires more doing it yourself. Last year’s canned cranberry sauce was swapped for fresh cranberries; a Marie Callendar Southern pecan pie disappeared and morphed into the makings of pumpkin pies, with two pie crusts and a 15-ounce can of pumpkin puree and a 12-ounce can of evaporated milk. And, alas, no frozen whipped topping like last year.
The 21 different items in last year’s Walmart holiday basket are now 15 different things, although they’ve thrown in an extra can of green beans to the two that were in last year and added three boxes of macaroni and cheese to round out the feast.
Aldi, Target and Winn-Dixie are also offering Thanksgiving packages at the same price or less than last year.
Expert: Retailers stopped eating Trump tariff costs
Outside of Thanksgiving marketing, Bryan Cutsinger, who teaches economics at Florida Atlantic University, said those tariffs are causing the overall increase in food prices.
“Inflation is probably going to run a bit hotter,” he said, noting that initially businesses were willing to absorb some of the tariff if it was going to be a short-term issue.
“Now they are realizing this is going to be going on for quite a while,” Cutsinger said. “And they are not exactly sure what the end state is going to be here.”
If you’re with the money-to-burn set and want to impress the guests, going to beef as the main dish would make quite a statement. Prices are at a record, according to industry reports, with the top, top sirloin price at Target at $14.99 per pound. The USDA index shows it’s increased by 25% over the previous year.
What October’s Consumer Price Index report shows is going to be interesting, FAU’s Cutsinger said.
“If the government was shut down for all of October, was the Bureau of Labor Statistics able to pay the people who go in and check these things?”
Anne Geggis is the insurance reporter at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach her at ageggis@gannett.com.Help support our journalism. Subscribe today
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Why Thanksgiving’s abundance might not extend to your wallet as you prep holiday dinner
Reporting by Anne Geggis, Palm Beach Post / Palm Beach Post
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