On the morning of Friday Oct. 24, Tropical Storm Melissa continues to spin in the central Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center warned rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and early next week for Melissa, which Friday, Oct. 24, nearly stalled in the Caribbean.
Already, experts say the system could become the strongest storm of this season — and one of “the strongest storms ever” to form in the Atlantic.
While Hispaniola and Cuba are also in the line of fire, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center on Oct. 23 said that in the short term, Jamaica could see the worst of the storm’s fury.
“Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica,” the hurricane center said.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday (Oct. 24) or Saturday (Oct. 25),” the hurricane center warned.
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Regardless of a direct hit, the East Coast of the U.S. could feel some impacts from Melissa — rain, wind and rough seas — later this month, even if the center remains at sea, according to AccuWeather.
The system is not expected to enter the Gulf of America — the official name under President Donald Trump’s administration — or have any impact on Texas.
Here’s what you should know.
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa right now? See projected path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Satellite photos, graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa expected to get? See the timeline
Map shows location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Friday, Oct. 24
On Friday, Oct. 24, Melissa is predicted to be at 15.6N 75.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 60 mph.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Saturday, Oct. 25
On Saturday, Oct. 25, Melissa is predicted to be at 16.4N 75.1W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 70 mph. To be classified as a hurricane, maximum sustained winds need to reach 74 mph.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Sunday, Oct. 26
On Sunday, Oct. 26, Melissa is predicted to be at 16.7N 76.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 100 mph, making Melissa a Category 2 hurricane.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Monday, Oct. 27
On Monday, Oct. 27, Melissa is predicted to be at 16.9N 77.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 120 mph, making Melissa a Category 3 hurricane.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Tuesday, Oct. 28
On Tuesday, Oct. 28, Melissa is predicted to be at 17.1N 78.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 130 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Texas?
Most current models now show Melissa being picked up and being shoved to the northeast into the Atlantic.
There are no models that show the system entering the Gulf.
“At this time, we expect Melissa to stay well east of Florida,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 23.
➤ WeatherTiger: Melissa a monster in the making with Florida dodging the bullet
“We do not anticipate any direct impacts or landfall in the state. However, we’re watching closely because if the storm shifts a little farther west, or if the trough that’s expected to steer it away from the coast is slower or farther west, that could allow Melissa to get a bit closer.”
While Melissa may be a monster in the making, it poses “little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Odds of any outer bands of Melissa even minimally scraping southeast Florida on its way out (into the Atlantic) are around 5%.”
Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: How strong will Tropical Storm Melissa get and where will it go? See the timeline
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Corpus Christi Caller Times
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
