Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game against Michigan on Saturday, 7:45 p.m. at Spartan Stadium. TV: NBC. Betting line: U-M -14.5
1. Can MSU finish drives with touchdowns?
The Spartans have been pretty good in the red zone, one of the marked improvements offensively this season, scoring 19 touchdowns on 27 trips inside the 20-yard line, with six made field goals. Against Indiana, however, for all that MSU moved the ball, the Spartans were 1-for-3 scoring touchdowns on trips to the red zone, and they didn’t score at all on three other drives inside the Hoosiers’ 40-yard line.
I don’t think there’s any question that MSU can move the ball in this game. The Spartans have done it to least some degree against everyone. Can they score four touchdowns? If they do that, they’ll have a real shot against a Wolverines team that, offensively, isn’t likely to run completely away from them.
2. Aidan Chiles and the fellas protecting him
The most positive development for MSU last week was Aidan Chiles returning to the form he showed earlier this season. In games against Nebraska and UCLA, he lost confidence and fell back into old, impatient habits, as MSU’s offensive line failed to protect him. The protection was better last week and Chiles was pretty good with underneath and intermediate throws against the Hoosiers. He found a rhythm and, with it, his mojo. You could tell after the game how much of a relief that was. If the Chiles we saw last week is back again, MSU’s offense can cause the Wolverines some problems. But if MSU’s offensive line can’t protect him or he gets too easily rattled, this game could get away from the Spartans.
3. Can the Spartans make Bryce Underwood uncomfortable?
There should be no illusions that the Spartans can come up with a consistent pass rush any longer. That’s only happened against Nebraska, which has a woeful offensive line. But for as talented as MIchigan QB Bryce Underwood is — and he already sometimes makes throws that are special — he is still a true freshman who is seeing things for the first time. That includes the intensity of his first rivalry game. MSU has to do everything it can to fluster Underwood, be it in how the Spartans send pressure or how they disguise coverages.
This is MSU defensive coordinator Joe Rossi vs. Underwood. We know Rossi is undermanned, but he has to find a way to paint a masterpiece with what he’s got. There’s no risk in trying something that doesn’t work. Because MSU’s defense, as is, doesn’t work. Michigan’s offense may not have a ton of quick-strike ability through the air, but the Wolverines average 5.5 yards per carry on the ground and if running back Justice Haynes is healthy and can go, he’s the sort of big-play back that could be a nightmare for the Spartans. In other words, if MSU is going to have some success defensively, it’s likely to come against Underwood.
4. Will somebody for MSU (probably Nick Marsh) have a memorable day?
It took five Kenneth Walker touchdowns to beat Michigan in 2021. A year earlier, Ricky White briefly became a Spartan freshman legend with nearly 200 yards receiving. Two decades earlier, the Wolverines couldn’t handle Plaxico Burress. For MSU to win this game, when it doesn’t have the advantage in the trenches, the Spartans are going to need an offensive playmaker to be special. We’ve seen moments of it from Nick Marsh. We’re yet to see that 10-catch, 150-yard, two-touchdown type of day. If it happens Saturday, he’ll go down in Spartan lore and MSU might just win this game. MSU could really use it this Saturday.
5. No forced turnovers, no way MSU wins
If turnovers aren’t a factor in this game, I don’t think the Spartans can win it. In other words, MSU needs to win the turnover battle — not just break even — to make up for shortcomings at the line of scrimmage and on defense. Based on what we’ve seen this season so far, that doesn’t seem likely. The Wolverines have one of the best turnover margins in the sport at plus-1.29 (third nationally), while MSU is 100th nationally at minus-0.43. Michigan has 11 interceptions this season and has forced four fumbles. MSU also has forced four fumbles, but has just three picks. It just takes a couple opportunistic moments. The Spartans have to work like crazy to create them.
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Prediction
I think the Spartans — both coaches and players — are more prepared for this rivalry and all that comes with it than they were a year ago. If MSU comes through in the big moments — from play calls, to blocking, to on-point throws, to handling pressure and adversity — this is a game the Spartans can probably win. It’s just hard to imagine it, given what we’ve seen at the line of scrimmage and on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolverines might only be an above-average team this season. But the Spartans would kill to be that.
Make it: Michigan 31, MSU 20
RELATED: Couch: Amid misery and the passing of years, MSU badly needs a win over Michigan
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football vs. Michigan: 5 determining factors and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
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