The Green Bay Packers defense has kept opposing offenses under 20 points in four of their five games so far this season, but at times they have failed to slam the door in the second half.
Of the 102 points the Packers defense has allowed, 80 of them have come in the second half. A big part of their inability to turn the tide once an opponent starts to build up steam is a lack of turnovers.
Jeff Hafley’s defense was fourth in the NFL in takeaways last year, but have just two so far in 2025, which ranks 31st in the league. Given how much Hafley, his assistant coaches and players talked up their commitment to forcing even more turnovers this season, the dramatic downturn has been surprising, but perhaps it should not be.
The Packers may just be experiencing the kind of regression which often hits defenses that take the ball away at a high rate from one season to the next.
Since 2015, defenses ranking in the top five in takeaways ranked around 13th on average the following year. 18 teams during that time (two per year) fell to the bottom half of the league, and multiple teams have fallen from the top five to 31st.
There has only been one year where a team did not fall from top five to at least the bottom half, which occurred between 2020 and 2021, and even then, the Steelers fell from second to 15th place.
Outside of Green Bay, the other teams from last year’s top five, and their current ranking, are as follows: Minnesota (ninth), Pittsburgh (third), Buffalo (18th), Houston (11th).
The Packers have clearly experienced the biggest dropoff, but on average, last year’s top five ranks around 14th early in 2025, which tracks with the standard from the last decade.
Beyond straightforward regression, the fact Green Bay has faced some of the league’s most interception-averse quarterbacks early in the season may have something to do with their low takeaway total.
Out of 39 qualified quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels has the third lowest turnover-worthy play rate, Dak Prescott is 10th, Joe Flacco is 14th and Jared Goff is 16th.
All of the quatterbacks they have encountered have been above average at protecting the ball, and in fairness to the Packers, they did get an interception from Flacco and Goff.
Forced fumbles becoming a bigger part of the formula could go a long way for Green Bay, especially considering how intentional opposing offenses are about getting the ball out quickly to negate Micah Parsons and the Packers pass rush.
They are challenging this defense to tackle and therefore giving them opportunities to punch at the football. Some of those attempts need to start producing results.
In terms of interceptions though, which are the most common source of takeaways, it is not a case of Hafley simply dialling up the interception plays, as Matt LaFleur might try to create an explosive on offense.
The last thing Hafley and LaFleur will want their defensive players to do is to start pressing and hunting for turnovers.
They have to play sound defense and accept that if opponents want to play conservatively, it will limit their takeaways, but could help the defense prevent points being scored if they are not being attacked downfield. Even without the big plays, Green Bay ranks ninth in expected points added per game on defense right now.
If Kyler Murray is able to play for the Cardinals this week, the Packers defense may have to be patient once again, as the Arizona QB has the second lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.
In the following two weeks, they will take on old friend Aaron Rodgers, who ranks 31st, and Bryce Young, who is 25th. Greater opportunities for splash plays on defense could be on the horizon.
The Packers will no doubt be working hard to find ways to take the ball away more regularly, but until opponents start presenting them with more opportunities to do so, they may have to be patient and win in other ways.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Why can’t Packers defense create turnovers? Is it simple regression or something more?
Reporting by Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
