MADISON – A leaked memo from consultants to U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s campaign for governor gives voters a glimpse into how a Republican campaign sizes up its potential competition from the Democratic side.
In this case, Tiffany’s consultants were raising a warning about state Rep. Francesca Hong’s early momentum in the Democratic primary field and suggested a strategy for how to prepare for a general election contest against a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist.
As a counter, Hong’s Democratic rivals have pointed to polling showing her as the only candidate losing in a hypothetical matchup with Tiffany.
And in a statement on Hong’s candidacy, Tiffany spokeswoman Caroline Briscoe said his campaign is prepared no matter the outcome of the Democratic primary “because they are all selling the same recycled agenda Wisconsin has endured for seven years: higher taxes, bigger government, and fewer choices for families.”
What Tiffany’s consultants said about Hong’s chances in the Democratic primary
“We Need To Take Francesca Hong Seriously,” warns the subject line of the memo, prepared earlier this month by consultants Clinton Soffer and Chris Hansen.
They cited polling that shows Hong’s early strength. In a Marquette poll released March 24, Hong led the field with 14%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits. But 65% were still undecided.
The campaign memo suggests the Marquette poll results and others show “Hong routinely captures the highest share of decided Democratic primary voters,” widening her lead while increasing her name ID.
What the consultants said about Hong’s prospects in a general election
The memo compares Hong to other potential Democratic candidates Tiffany could face in the Nov. 3 general election, viewing her as someone whose nomination “virtually guarantees elevated Democratic enthusiasm and turnout in Dane County and the Milwaukee media market, where statewide races are decided.”
In contrast, the memo expects “more moderate and establishment Democratic alternatives would likely produce lower base motivation and depressed turnout.”
“Unlike more moderate or establishment Democrats, Hong energizes the progressive base in a way that could drive record Democratic turnout precisely when midterms historically favor the party out of power,” the consultants wrote. “Her issues resonate broadly with working- and middle-class voters and have some crossover with our populist positions. Hong could bring some turnout advantages with positions that reach outside Democrats’ core base.”
Tiffany’s consultants characterized Hong’s policy agenda as “broadly popular and difficult to counter.”
Her platform is “built around kitchen-table issues that poll strongly with independents, working families, and even some rural voters, issues that directly undercut Republican messaging on taxes and cost of living,” they wrote, adding that in focus groups and internal polling, undecided voters respond better to economic relief proposals than “culture-war messaging.”
“Hong’s path to the nomination is clear, and her general-election strengths are formidable,” the memo continues, highlighting three key elements: a combination of Democratic base mobilization and crossover appeal, a highly motivated bloc of volunteers and a populist biography that could blunt efforts to frame her as a “radical socialist.”
What the memo says about Hong’s background and what it means for campaign strategy
Hong, 37, has represented Wisconsin’s 76th Assembly District in the heart of Madison since 2021. She earned acclaim in her early 20s as a chef in the capital city, becoming co-owner and co-chef of Morris Ramen, which closed in 2024 after seven years in business.
She has continued to work as a chef and a bartender in addition to serving in the Assembly, where she is the first Asian American state legislator in Wisconsin history and a member of the Legislature’s socialist caucus.
“Facing Hong requires a fundamentally different playbook than against a moderate Democrat,” the memo reads. “We must prepare aggressive counters to her tax increases, regulatory record, and Madison-centric worldview, while simultaneously neutralizing her popular policies through superior alternatives on affordability and rural preservation.”
Tiffany’s consultants recommended developing a message focused on Hong’s most liberal votes and elements of her record while testing messaging to undercut her “tax the rich” plans.
At the same time, they recommended highlighting “Tiffany’s record on tax relief, overtime/tips exemptions, and farmland protection against foreign buyers” while making early investments in rural and suburban outreach on childcare and school funding.
Tiffany, 67, seeks the governor’s office after representing the 7th Congressional District since 2020. Before running for Congress, he served in the state Assembly and Senate for about 10 years.
“Hong is the Democrat best equipped to turn 2026 into a base-driven turnout battle,” Tiffany’s consultants concluded. “Ignoring her strengths would be a strategic error. We have the tools to defeat her, but only if we respect the Mamdani-like threat she poses today,” a reference to recently elected New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, also a democratic socialist.
Who are the other Democrats in the race and what have they said about the competition?
The consultants’ memo focused on Hong, but others in a crowded Democratic field could rise to face Tiffany in the Nov. 3 general election.
Hong faces former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan, former Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. Secretary Missy Hughes and state Sen. Kelda Roys on the Aug. 11 primary ballot.
Rodriguez recently raised questions about Hong’s electability in the general election.
“I love Francesca. She sat with me, right? She was my seatmate [in the Assembly]. I love her dearly. She’s smart. She’s amazing. I love what she does. I worry a little bit about her for the general,” Rodriguez said at an April 15 event when asked which candidate she would prefer if she was not running for governor, according to audio obtained by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
In the same audio, she raised questions about Barnes’ viability in a general election race.
“Mandela, I worry a little bit about the general as well, because he lost that [U.S.] Senate race, and those things are still there,” she said, referring Barnes’ 2022 loss to Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.
A March poll conducted by TechnoMetrica on behalf of the League of American Workers showed voters preferring Rodriguez and Barnes over Tiffany by 3 points and 2 points, respectively, and Tiffany over Hong by 3 points.
A spokesman for the Barnes campaign said in response to Rodriguez’s comments that the former lieutenant governor “remains the only candidate with multiple polls showing him clearly beating Tom Tiffany in the general election.”
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What a leaked GOP memo says about the candidacy of Francesca Hong
Reporting by Jessie Opoien, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
